$200 NLHE Full Ring: River decision with overpair to board

Live $1/2. I am in the Button with QQ. Small Blind has been relatively quiet for the most of the session, but is fairly deep, having recently won a decent pot against me with nut flush vs. my second nut flush. I would say he is on the TAG side, pretty good player for these stakes. I had played a lot of hands early in the session, but haven't been very active lately.

2 limps to me
Hero ($600) raises to $12
SB ($700) calls $12
BB folds
1 limper calls for 10 more

Pot is $40

Flop 2d 2c 6h

I bet $25
SB calls $25
other folds

Turn 2d 2c 6h Js

Pot is $90

I bet $40
SB calls $40

River 2d 2c 6h Js 2h

Pot is $170

SB leads out for $125
Hero?

I found a fold here, I figure he is check calling with his AJ, KJ, QJ here and I really haven't seen him bluff the enire session. He could be trying to push me off my over pair, but I think he has JJ, but also think A2s, 66 are in his range here. I think he 3 bets AA or KK preflop. Thoughts on this fold?

Betting style

Gildog89 said:

Live $1/2. I am in the Button with QQ. Small Blind has been relatively quiet for the most of the session, but is fairly deep, having recently won a decent pot against me with nut flush vs. my second nut flush. I would say he is on the TAG side, pretty good player for these stakes. I had played a lot of hands early in the session, but haven't been very active lately.

2 limps to me
Hero ($600) raises to $12
SB ($700) calls $12
BB folds
1 limper calls for 10 more

Pot is $40

Flop 2d 2c 6h

I bet $25
SB calls $25
other folds

Turn 2d 2c 6h Js

Pot is $90

I bet $40
SB calls $40

River 2d 2c 6h Js 2h

Pot is $170

SB leads out for $125
Hero?

I found a fold here, I figure he is check calling with his AJ, KJ, QJ here and I really haven't seen him bluff the enire session. He could be trying to push me off my over pair, but I think he has JJ, but also think A2s, 66 are in his range here. I think he 3 bets AA or KK preflop. Thoughts on this fold?

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How did your opponent play the nut flush vs you. Did they slow play then attack? Did they bet on the come? Did they lead river? Did they check raise? Did they try to let you bluff?

Our opponents love to put us on AK. Low stakes players think all full houses are the nuts.

Why is our opponent not trying to lead the turn? The jack is a perfect card to pretend to hit when you have 2x or 66. Then no check raise to build the pot when you bet? No check raise, then a big lead on river when you have to have a full house larger than the J to call.

Why not lead $90 hope to get raised? $125 is a huge bet with quads.

So on the river the villain thinks we have AA but not on the turn? Villain knows we call with second best hands why slow play trips or a full on turn when you could hit a bigger full on river with QQ KK AA?

Don't get me wrong this villain might think you suck at poker and you will pay his slow played 2 or 66.

Think back to the flush hand how did you play it? Would villain think you would make another bad call? Villains thinking not mine.
Why would villain think you would not bet AA KK QQ on the river? Then check raise all in?

Just some thoughts for you to consider. You are actions may have been exactly right.

Hope this helps.

I think villain could have Jx in river bet-fold range and QQ is simply too good to throw away.

eetenor said:

How did your opponent play the nut flush vs you. Did they slow play then attack? Did they bet on the come? Did they lead river? Did they check raise? Did they try to let you bluff?

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On the flush over flush hand, he had position on me. There was a 3rd player who led the flop, I called, he called. We turned our flushes (3 clubs on board). Check, I led for 2/3 pot, villain called, fold. River paired the board and we both checked. Board pair saved me money for sure.

I think its hard to take too much from this hand because of position and the way the hand played. He was certainly hoping to raise the river and get it in, but the board pair slowed him down.

He didn't play a ton of hands, so I gave him respect, but, sometimes players who play tight overvalue a J or TT in that spot. That said, he didn't overvalue his nut flush when the board paired.

quant1986 said:

I think villain could have Jx in river bet-fold range and QQ is simply too good to throw away.

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Thanks for your comment. I kind of feel the same way that my hand was to good to fold, but does a tight player float that flop with Jx? and is $125 kind of big for bet/fold line? I kind of feel like if I over folded, it was to a hand like 99, TT or I suppose to AJ suited that flopped a backdoor flush draw.

If he's a good player, I think JJ in SB is a 3-bet against a button raise. You could be applying pressure to the limpers with all kinds of hands (A5s, ATs, KQs). Your raise isn't that big, especially with two limpers, and likely to be called by a couple others. Playing JJ out of position against two or three other players is not a spot he wants to be in. As played, if I was SB with TT-KK, AQ+ I would 3-bet to $50-$55. Broadway hands, suited connectors and small pairs could be a call.

With that being said, there are only 3 combos of 66 you are losing to. $125 to win $295 means you have to be good 40% of the time. QQ seems too good to fold.

This looks like a standard Zeebo shove to me. Folding is pretty terrible.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/zeebo/

Excellent

Gildog89 said:

On the flush over flush hand, he had position on me. There was a 3rd player who led the flop, I called, he called. We turned our flushes (3 clubs on board). Check, I led for 2/3 pot, villain called, fold. River paired the board and we both checked. Board pair saved me money for sure.

I think its hard to take too much from this hand because of position and the way the hand played. He was certainly hoping to raise the river and get it in, but the board pair slowed him down.

He didn't play a ton of hands, so I gave him respect, but, sometimes players who play tight overvalue a J or TT in that spot. That said, he didn't overvalue his nut flush when the board paired.

Click to expand...

Thank you for engaging.

Great analysis on your part of the flush hand. This helps us lean towards villain having quads or JJ Villain is a bad slow player who has no courage to bet the nut flush when you so apparently have a lower flush and check the river. Not even a min bet with the nut flush because he was terrified you would raise.

So how does he now have the courage to bluff us on the river or not just check call with Jx 1010 etc

We cannot be 100% certain what villain has but we now cannot rule out a 2 or JJ.
125 does not seem like a blocking size so we have to watch villain play to see if villain ever makes weird blocking bets again.

Either live or online if I fold here I always say nice bluff. How did you know I had Ak?
If you can get them to engage they will indicate what their hand was.

The flush played hand really helps define how villains think in difficult spots use that data.

Scared players do not become brave players out of no where.
Aggressive players do not become passive. Calling stations do not start to fold etc etc

Hope this helps