Originally Posted by shootwillus
I like the way you did the results in white. Its a fun game to put them on a hand and then see if you are right. I had the SB basically correct...I was thinking JJ, 10's, or AJ AQ, so, i am glad for that read.
MP guy...a bit harder read. If he is as passive as you say, he could seriously have AA or KK or something ridiculous.
I figured that these hands would have been bet at some point, or raised on the river. His river call was what confirmed "weak king" for me, but you're right. This guy could have had an absolute monster.
I really think you should have put out some bets before an All-in push on the river. You let so so so many possible hands get free cards. Pocket 2's, any 4, 3-5(ok, this is really rare), and...as you found out, any hand with a king is really going to start feeling powerful by the river.
The river wasn't all in, I still had nearly $100 behind me after the bet.
On your river push you are risking $150 to get $80. If you had bet out earlier you may have got some calls earlier, built a bigger pot, and built a believable story for AK or AA. If i had the 10's...i'd most likely be out on the flop and i would never call a turn bet. If i were MP I never would be in this with K10 and I wouldnt check the turn if I were him.
I think this (and possibly the bet sizing on the river) was the biggest problem. I didn't bet earlier for the AK, AA, KK story to be completely believable. I thought it believable enough that on any of them I'd be giving free cards to let the other players catch up, the absence of a turn bet still seemed a problem but not one I thought either player would be willing to pay $130 to look up.
At some point, someone has to bet out to see who is winning...someone needed to take control of this pot and the direction it is headed before the river.
The reason for not betting the flop was the WA/WB concept. On the turn I felt I had the best of it, but checked looking for a showdown (the flush draw was a slight concern).
You got MP to lay down a set of K's because he was afraid of the straight. I would have hammered him again on this flop. If he can lay down 3 kings he can lay down 2 kings.
I should have stated that in that hand he put me on pocket jacks, this guy was someone who was thinking first level poker, with enough fear to fold hands that he shouldn't have. You're right the the 8TJ board is straight heavy and many good players will fold here (not in the manner he did though), I perhaps should have left that bit out because he certainly didn't know well enough to know how dangerous it was.
The thing is...what is possibly going to call this all in river push and not have you totally crushed? How much junk like pocket 7's are showing up here for that amount of money? Also, do you think it has to be an all in? Maybe a re-raise to value bet may seem more believable and cheaper?
You're right, anything that calls me has me crushed, it was a bluff. They both showed enormous weakness and I knew they could both be moved off of their hands.
I don't know...its not my style to makes these kinds of plays. I'd personally feel very uncomfortable making your play and thus I am coming up with a bunch of reasons why it isnt a good idea....so, i think I have a bias here.
I just don't like slowplaying hands that arent the nuts or nut-esque. It seems to have always brought me trouble.
I wouldn't slow play hands that can be drawn out on easily either. I wasn't slow playing though.