$200 NLHE Full Ring: $ : Question about break even plays

R

rmillot

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: $ : Question about break even plays

This hand came up last night in my local cardroom:

1$/2$ No Limit

Preflop: My starting chips for the hand: 180$

Seat 1: Call 2$ / Call 4$
Seat 2: Call 2$ / Call 4$
Seat 3: Fold
Seat 4: Fold
Seat 5: Raise to 6$
Seat 6: Call 6$
Seat 7: Fold
Button (Me): A h 7 h Call 6$
SB: Call 5$
BB: Call 4$

Flop: 7 Players--Pot: 42$ Kh 9h 2c

SB: Bet 20$
BB: Fold
Seat 1: Fold
Seat 2: Fold
Seat 5: Raise to 100$
Seat 6: Raise to 200$
Button (Me, after putting seat 5 or 6 on a set): Fold
SB: Fold
Seat 5: Call all-in 100$

Showdown:

Board: Kh 9h 2c Jh 3d
Seat 5: Kd 9s
Seat 6: 9c 9d

Did I make the correct play here by folding? Obviously I would have won the pot with the nut flush, but I correctly assumed that one player had a set and reduced my outs from 9 to 7 with redraws. I did the math on the hand: I am about a 29% to win the pot, and would have been risking 174$ to win a 584$ pot: largely a break even play. Does the fact that I invested 6$ in the pot preflop justify a call in the name of pot equity?

Robert
 
Implied Odds3

Implied Odds3

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I think you made a good fold based on your read and the reduced outs that the set created.
With your odds, you are correct in folding.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Your pot odds are $174 to win $462, or 2.65:1.
Your draw is 2.4:1.

Shoulda called, as on average, you'll make money. Trick is, you're not assured that seat 5 will put in his last $100, and if he folds that's a pretty big disaster for you. So your call is only correct if you know seat 5 will call off his last $100 with two players left in the pot.

Or, since the edge is small, and its not that much better than break-even, you can just fold and save yourself the variance.
 
P

postflopper

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i would fold in this spot. not worth the variance, esp when u only have 6 bucks invested in the pot. save the money for a better spot.
 
Lazmansa

Lazmansa

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Good fold here,u have only invested $6.no need to risk all the cash on a draw.

Lazmansa:D
 
M

Mamushi

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Just for the record although we may be getting odds to call our draw, two pair and sets have a redraw on us, so I don't think it is a simple as saying "we have 9 outs".
 
ljove

ljove

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Yes.I think this is good fold.Villain has well protected his hand.
 
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