$200 NLHE Full Ring: Possible mistakes live

U

Ubercroz

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 33/10/2

The stats I have listed are estimates, since this is a live hand I don't have a HUD. Until googleglasses invents I guess we are just out of luck.

So, I have noticed he is a pretty tight raised but has been limp/calling a lot. When he raises he is fairly aggressive, which maybe should have been a clue to me a little later. Also, he is an asian - apparently that makes a difference to some people :)

10 handed,
Villain is MP+1 with ~210bb ($420)
HJ (a fish, which factors in a little too) 70bb ($140)
Hero BTN (also a fish, but what can you do) 245bb ($490)

Hero is dealt 7h9h on the button.

Villain makes it $10, HJ calls, Hero calls.

Pot is $32 on the flop.

flop: Qh 6c 8d

Villain checks, HJ checks, Hero makes it $15 villain reraises to $45. HJ folds, Hero Calls.

Pot is $122

Turn Jh

Villain bets $85, hero tanks and ... ?

At this point I think I have him on AQ, JJ+, and maybe AhKh - though I discount the AK of hearts somewhat since he c/r without a draw. I would figure that to be a hand he would be more aggressive with.

What I really think that means is that he is going to drop the rest of his stack if I hit my straight or my flush, and almost all of my outs should be clean at this point. I think that gives me some implied odds to call here.

I pretty clearly don't have the express odds to call here, so do my implied odds from a tight, moderately aggressive, player make up for the lack of express odds here?
 
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Ubercroz

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I will accept "fold pre" as a legitimate response, but I think its a fine call when the villain and I are deep.
 
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swingro

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I do not think they will allow google glasses at the tables :)
Your equity on the turn is about 30% if i am not mistaken. So you need to win about 2.5 x 85 = ~ 212 dollars to break even . There is already 207$ in the pot. If you call you need to extract from him somewhere around 5 dollars to make profit on the long run. I did not considered the rake because i do not know how big it is.
I used the multiplication factor table for implied odds. I estimated the multiplication factor around 2.5 for 30% equity. I hope my math is somewhat correct.
Our Equity Multiply his bet by:
35% 2x
25% 3x
20% 4x
15% 6x
10% 9x








 
suby_rafael

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i would snap call here as you have a very strong draw. I might sometimes even 4bet the flop and if he flat calls and checks then i shove all in on the turn or if he 6 bets us we still call. Remember you have a very strong draw. If you don't fold on the flop then there is absolutely no point in folding the turn as you have so many outs. If we were even more deep stacked i would play aggressively again on the turn and put a sizeable raise but since we are not that deep a call is definitely on. If we miss and he checks river we have to go all in there, so we cannot give up in the river.
 
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Ubercroz

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I do not think they will allow google glasses at the tables :)
Your equity on the turn is about 30% if i am not mistaken. So you need to win about 2.5 x 85 = ~ 212 dollars to break even . There is already 207$ in the pot. If you call you need to extract from him somewhere around 5 dollars to make profit on the long run. I did not considered the rake because i do not know how big it is.
I used the multiplication factor table for implied odds. I estimated the multiplication factor around 2.5 for 30% equity. I hope my math is somewhat correct.
Our Equity Multiply his bet by:
35% 2x
25% 3x
20% 4x
15% 6x
10% 9x









This should be a pretty easy call then, if we think he is going to call when we hit.

The flush is more likely to kill action than anything else.

How often do we need to get paid off big for this to be profitable... well, not much it looks like, given how close the equity is.

Rake is not much at 1/2 tables, I think it maxes at... $5(?). I already excluded the $1 drop from the pot earlier in the hand, so it would be another $4 or so, not that much when we are talking about a nearly stack sized bet on the river when things go well.

This becomes a little tighter if its a gutshot straight and a flush draw, but I think it would still be fine even with 12 outs, though the flop call would be more questionable.

Thanks for the eyes on the hand so far.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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Preflop is a little meh, but tbh since you're posting this hand it does kind of make me question whether you're ready to be playing these kinds of hands postflop.

Flop line looks good, although you could make an argument for folding to his x/r (with backdoor flush draw I think it's especially fine though). No point in 3betting when the PFR x/r the flop. This is usually going to be sets and KK+.

Obviously turn is a pretty amazing card for us. Unfortunately villain makes it $85, which is a pretty good bet-sizing to price us out on our draw. However we have pretty insane equity against his whole range, and ALL of our outs are pretty disguised. Villain can't put us on many flush draws since we called the flop x/r (when there was no heart draw). And the straight draw outs won't make him as wary.

I also doubt we have much if any FE when we raise the turn, so flatting seems far and away the best option.

Also, kind of nit-picking here, but idk why you put JJ into villain's range when he x/r the flop (is a passive villain really x/r the flop as the PFR with second pair to the board?).
 
John A

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You have two hidden draws. Call. That's the best scenario you can have for implied odds, and if he's playing his hand in that manner, it's unlikely you have any FE. This is a no brainer.
 
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Ubercroz

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Preflop is a little meh, but tbh since you're posting this hand it does kind of make me question whether you're ready to be playing these kinds of hands postflop.

Flop line looks good, although you could make an argument for folding to his x/r (with backdoor flush draw I think it's especially fine though). No point in 3betting when the PFR x/r the flop. This is usually going to be sets and KK+.

Obviously turn is a pretty amazing card for us. Unfortunately villain makes it $85, which is a pretty good bet-sizing to price us out on our draw. However we have pretty insane equity against his whole range, and ALL of our outs are pretty disguised. Villain can't put us on many flush draws since we called the flop x/r (when there was no heart draw). And the straight draw outs won't make him as wary.

I also doubt we have much if any FE when we raise the turn, so flatting seems far and away the best option.

Also, kind of nit-picking here, but idk why you put JJ into villain's range when he x/r the flop (is a passive villain really x/r the flop as the PFR with second pair to the board?).

I agree with pretty much everything you are saying here. And you're right about JJ, not likely to be in his range after the flop barring a spazzy move on the flop.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean about "being ready to play these kinds of hands post flop."

I mostly posted the hand because I thought it was an interesting spot with some unusual action and close potential moves (between fold, call, bet).

In regards to the flop, I think we are very spot on to our pot odds and calling. Its right around 30% and with the backdoor I think its a snap call.

On the turn I don't think there is EVER any fold equity there. I can't imagine this guy folding an overpair or a set here, I don't think anyone would really.

Good input, thanks.
 
Matt Vaughan

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I was just suggesting that the decisions aren't really that close at the various spots, and in particular, the turn spot is pretty clear cut. I'm not sure how much odds-calculating and implied odds thought you are implementing at the table, but if that's reserved mostly for off-table work at this point, you might not want to call with a hand like a suited gapper preflop. This is a hand type that's going to require quick and accurate odds calculation or estimation and decisions based on that.

I don't mean any offense when I say this - I'm simply suggesting that if this spot feels close in-game but then off-table we realize it's not, then perhaps we are making more mistakes with this hand-type in-game than we realize.

Many, many players, winning, breakeven, and losing alike, "good" and "bad" alike, would benefit from playing a tighter range preflop, and flatting fewer hands vs. open-raises.
 
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Ubercroz

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Many, many players, winning, breakeven, and losing alike, "good" and "bad" alike, would benefit from playing a tighter range preflop, and flatting fewer hands vs. open-raises.

Fair enough.

I think the other stuff you said makes sense as well. I didn't take any offense, by the way.

At the time I played it, I didn't feel uncomfortable with any of the decisions and it felt pretty straight forward. I was thinking about it later (yesterday) and was mostly wanting to double check my thoughts. I guess it was more of an interesting spot to me than it is a questionable spot. The flop is really where I should have cut the hand at, since that is a more questionable decision than the turn.

In retrospect, maybe not the best hand to post. But its always worth making sure you aren't going crazy.
 
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Beanfacekilla

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Here is my take on the hand...

Villain has a big hand post flop. I think sets and big over pairs also (as scourrge said).


He is never folding.


I think if you hit the straight or the flush you will probably be able to win a fair amount of $$$.


However, I don't care for SGs like this preflop.

You are IP, so that is good, but I think in general, it might be more prudent to tighten up a little. Live is slow though, and patience is something I am working on myself.


Anyways, my opinion:

Call flop C/R.

Call turn as we increased equity.

And if we hit the river, extract as much as possible based on reads.



Disclaimer: I am not that great at analysis, but I just wanted to chime in because it is live poker (what I play). I feel live poker plays quite a bit differently than online.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Hey no prob at all Uber. There are a lot of good reasons for posting hands - including checking lines you feel are standard. I may have misinterpreted the reason :) In any case, nh. Keep posting - I feel like I'm one of the few (along with Bean, Sand, and apparently you :) ) that is active in live games and HA.
 
hackmeplz

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Yeah definitely folding pre, you're just not going to be making much money against that strong a range. Flop played perfectly (may go a bit bigger with your bet but that's w/e), turn super-easy call. I think it's a super-easy call even if you don't hit the heart, so the fact that you hit the heart makes anything but a call a massive mistake.
 
Mr Sandbag

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I like the preflop call because of how deep we are with the raiser. The fact that a fish also called makes it even more attractive.

Flop is close, I think, but I don't mind it. Since we are so deep and villain is most likely very strong, we have good implied odds for our disguised draw. Definitely not folding the turn unless he jams or something.

Also important to note that three of your outs (non-heart tens) aren't good against his entire range, as I expect him to take this line with AK, especially based on your read that he can be quite aggressive when he's the preflop raiser. Your flop bet looks kind of weak too, so spewing with AK is definitely not out of the question. Still not folding to that bet on the turn.

NH.
 
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Ubercroz

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Yeah definitely folding pre, you're just not going to be making much money against that strong a range. Flop played perfectly (may go a bit bigger with your bet but that's w/e), turn super-easy call. I think it's a super-easy call even if you don't hit the heart, so the fact that you hit the heart makes anything but a call a massive mistake.

You think its a fold even when playing 200bb's deep? If there hadn't been the combination of a fish and pretty deep stacks I likely would have folded here.
 
hackmeplz

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Yeah I think it is. If they were both deep I think it'd be closer but the fish is not going to fold enough for you to make any moves post and you're not going to make the best hand often enough against the reg to justify flatting pre. I mean it's a pretty small mistake so if you're bored and just wanna play pots and realize you're paying like 20c in ev to do it it's not the end of the world but I'd be pretty surprised if the call pre was +ev in the long run.
 
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Yeah I think it is. If they were both deep I think it'd be closer but the fish is not going to fold enough for you to make any moves post and you're not going to make the best hand often enough against the reg to justify flatting pre. I mean it's a pretty small mistake so if you're bored and just wanna play pots and realize you're paying like 20c in ev to do it it's not the end of the world but I'd be pretty surprised if the call pre was +ev in the long run.

Thats all true. Most of the time we are throwing away $10.

I put it in to an odds calculator and came up with about a 35.8% raw equity for this hand vs. his range of hands (88-AA, AK,AQ, AJs, KQs - maybe a little wider).

If no more money goes into the pot then we lose about $6.50 every time this is played.

So how much do I need to make when I win to make up for that? I am going to only get 2 pair or better about 4.4% of the time. Thats pretty thin. And some of that time (around .5%) he is going to flop a better hand than me and get it in. These are just flop numbers, its a little better by the river.

So on the flop, if I can get him to put in $300 (to make up for when I lose) then I will be break even - give or take. That is with no further bets taking place.

So, for this to be break even (I could keep going, but it get more convoluted) he needs to have around 30x the flop bet to call here. Thats just for an opportunity to break even, not that he will every time.

I guess he needs something like $375+ for this to be potentially +EV, and of course that is player dependent, it requires him to get his stack in with an overpair when he is that deep.

I think you're probably right. This is very close, he is not likely to get his entire stack in that often to make this profitable long term. Its likely a little on the -EV, but not by much. and like you said not a big mistake. If the Fish is deep, then this is a much easier call, since you have an opportunity to win more than a single stack, making the required stack depth much lower (around $250 a piece is probably enough, especially when the fish will cal down light).

Good input, thanks.

EDIT- these are some pretty rough numbers, and I may have made some mistakes in figuring it. But I think its close enough to make a reasonable decision.
 
hackmeplz

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The other big thing is against a tight range you're likely only getting to see 3 not 5 cards before putting in more money so it's going to be worse than 35.8%.
 
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