$200 NLHE Full Ring: Possible mistakes live
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF):
The stats I have listed are estimates, since this is a live hand I don't have a HUD. Until googleglasses invents I guess we are just out of luck.
So, I have noticed he is a pretty tight raised but has been limp/calling a lot. When he raises he is fairly aggressive, which maybe should have been a clue to me a little later. Also, he is an asian - apparently that makes a difference to some people
Villain is MP+1 with ~210bb ($420)
HJ (a fish, which factors in a little too) 70bb ($140)
Hero BTN (also a fish, but what can you do) 245bb ($490)
Hero is dealt 7h9h on the button.
Villain makes it $10, HJ calls, Hero calls.
Pot is $32 on the flop.
flop: Qh 6c 8d
Villain checks, HJ checks, Hero makes it $15 villain reraises to $45. HJ folds, Hero Calls.
Pot is $122
Villain bets $85, hero tanks and ... ?
At this point I think I have him on AQ, JJ+, and maybe AhKh - though I discount the AK of hearts somewhat since he c/r without a draw. I would figure that to be a hand he would be more aggressive with.
What I really think that means is that he is going to drop the rest of his stack if I hit my straight or my flush, and almost all of my outs should be clean at this point. I think that gives me some implied odds
to call here.
I pretty clearly don't have the express odds to call here, so do my implied odds from a tight, moderately aggressive, player make up for the lack of express odds here?