£200 NLHE Full Ring: Playing two pairs on very wet board multi-way

Q

quant1986

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Live £1/£1 cash, 8-max
Loose table, many love limping or call £5-10 raise with mediocre hands

UTG: Good TAG , >£200 stack
UTG +1: LAG, love bluffing on dry board >£150 stack
BTN: New to table , >£150 stack
SB (Hero): >£150 stack, tight passive image
BB: mid-aged man, should be on tight side ~ £80 stack

UTG limped, UTG +1 raised to £8, BTN called, SB called with :9d4::10d4:, BB called, UTG called.

Flop - £42

:js4::10s4::9c4:

SB checked. BB led £25, UTG called, UTG+1 called, BTN raised to £90
I thought for a while and folded but I am not sure if I had better hands like top two pairs or good straight/flush draw combo.
BB thought for a while and called. UTG folded and UTG+1 called with hesitation.

What would be your threshold here to call/shove facing BTN raise?
Would you fold JT or TT or 99?
Would you lead the flop?

BTN showed QcKh, BB showed 7c8d, UTG+1 had Jc8h, UTG said he had As9h
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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What are the stack sizes that are all marked >150? Knowing they are larger than 150 isn't that useful. Are you saying they are close to 150? Much more than 150?

It's tough because our line should be very stack dependent here.

But that being said I'd often be leading out on this board. The PFR should have zero cbet bluffs - his only "bluffs" will have tons of equity. So I'd rather lead myself, prevent check throughs, and get value from the field. If I'm correct in my assumption that we have ~150 and the pot is 42, then I'm just going with the hand and probably not folding after leading for say 35. But it's still player dependent if I face a raise.

That being said when you see this action on this board after checking.... I'd be concerned. When we think about the hands that are likely to raise, we see things like A7ss, QJ, and QT as best case scenarios. And in worst case scenarios we are drawing to 4 outs (or less).

Giving the BTN a range of 99-88, AQs, As9s-As2s, KQs, Ks9s, Qs9s, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo, KQo (which btw might be kind of optimistic), we have 47% equity. That's ignoring the other player in the hand but I think it shows that we probably have a BARELY profitable get it in given the money that's already in the pot and the stack depths.

I'm certainly not fist pumping. Plus that's probably the best case scenario. If you remove 88 and AQ combos that don't have a spade, our equity dips to 39%. This is not a simple spot due to the other player in the hand, but I think given the other player has some gii's that have us dead (like TT and JJ) and won't get it in as wide as the button will with us, I'm looking to let it go.
 
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