$200 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair to draw heavy board

TonyTwoCheeks

TonyTwoCheeks

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Villain stack: $419
Hero stack: $450

Villain has not been playing many hands but I believe has bluffed before. He threw $50 river bet into $60 and then snap-folded to little slightly more than min-raise shove.
*** PRE-FLOP ***

UTG: limps $1
UTG+1 (Hero): raises $12 with :qd4: :qc4:
Lo-Jack: calls $12
Hi-Jack (Villain): calls $12
Button: calls $12
Small Blind: folds
Big Blind: folds
UTG: folds
Pot Size: $51

*** FLOP *** [ :4h4: :jh4: :10s4:]

UTG: bets $30 (59% pot)
Lo-Jack: folds
Hero: calls $30
Button: folds
Pot Size: $111

*** TURN *** [ :4h4: :jh4: :10s4: :7d4:]

UTG: bets $75 (68% pot)
Hi-Jack: raises to $200
UTG: ????
There are plenty of draws out there and not many two pair combos.

UTG: raises all-in ($377 effective)
Hi-Jack: calls and shows :8h4: :9h4:
Pot Size: $865
*** RIVER *** [ :4h4: :jh4: :10s4: :7d4: :kc4:]
Well That's Fantastic!!!


 
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Gildog89

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Without looking at the spoiler, I think you're either up against a made straight, two hearts with a pair or 2 hearts with a gut shot. I think its probably a semi bluff vs. something like AhTh, but against the range I mentioned above, villain is 82% to win. I think you can fold here. Catch villain bluffing in a better spot imo.
 
TonyTwoCheeks

TonyTwoCheeks

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Wouldn't it be typical to raise flop with nut-flush draw ( :ah4: :10h4: )?
With a made straight, why not call the turn or bet smaller? A $200 bet for this game as a number is pretty large.
 
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Gildog89

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Its hard to give a complete read of live players on the forum, but that is really player dependant. So many players at 1/2 play there cards with no thought to what opponants are doing. It just feels to me that the turn either completed a straight draw, improved a flush draw, paired a flush draw, etc. Also, a hand like JT can show up here being one street safer from a heart hitting. Looking at his hand, just know that this player plays huge draws passively until he hits. You have a great read on him now.
 
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quant1986

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I think this is a very nutted line on the turn in general.



Given flop texture, villain should be raising with JT and sets most of the time, so the flop calling range is likely draws and AJ,AT. I just don't see normal players would call flop with T9 and turn this hand into bluff as your range is very strong after your actions.
 
TonyTwoCheeks

TonyTwoCheeks

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I think this is a very nutted line on the turn in general.



Given flop texture, villain should be raising with JT and sets most of the time, so the flop calling range is likely draws and AJ,AT. I just don't see normal players would call flop with T9 and turn this hand into bluff as your range is very strong after your actions.


What would have been a more deceptive line? Is a more deceptive line warranted considering there may be high reverse-implied odds.
 
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mikeisthebestever

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Is this live or online? If its live I would snap fold when the turn gets raised, players at that level only make raises postflop with nutted hands. If it's online, the players at that level are much better and I would probably call down on some run outs some of the time
 
TonyTwoCheeks

TonyTwoCheeks

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It's a live $1-$1 home game. Typically, there's a $5 button straddle but not on this hand. Action is heavy at most games. This night's game has several bigger players. Villain bought in for $300, has topped off three times and is in for $700. I bought in for $200 and ran it to the mentioned stack.
 
TonyTwoCheeks

TonyTwoCheeks

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If its live I would snap fold when the turn gets raised, players at that level only make raises postflop with nutted hands.


I agree. If the villain's call-call-raise line is face up, what would have been a more deceptive line for him to take?
 
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quant1986

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What would have been a more deceptive line? Is a more deceptive line warranted considering there may be high reverse-implied odds.



Villain line is perfectly fine for this specific hand, made hand but still vulnerable to better draws. If he called the turn and the board is paired on the river, it may kill all the actions.

I guess at higher stakes one could play some of the KQs combos (that you blocked) the same way for balancing but definitely not $1/1 home game.
 
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