$200 NLHE Full Ring: NLHE live $1-3 Hero faces over-bet with flush draw and 2 overs. Call/fold?

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glemly

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$200 NLHE Full Ring: NLHE live $1-3 Hero faces over-bet with flush draw and 2 overs. Call/fold?

EDIT: disregard the $200 on the title, can't edit it for some reason.

This hand happened to me last night at the casino. This is my first hand analysis post so cut me some slack on the structure of it :p

Full table of 9, overall table is very tight, fishy. Been playing with Villain at least 2+ hours. He is very fishy and tight. Only bets when he has it (and from what he has shown it has always been more than top pair. Villain has only attempted 1 raise the entire 2+ hours, and he didn't know a min raise must be at least 2x the original bet (again, he doesn't know what he is doing).

Earlier run-in with Villain around ~1 hour ago I had A Q off, and raised to his KK pre-flop. He flat calls, then bets about 1/4 - 1/3 pot on a dry flop (but straight possibilities). I call with 2 overs with such a low bet, then hit a queen on the turn. he then bets even less on the turn ($20 into a pot of around $90-100), and I raise to $60. He only flat calls still, then an Ace hits the river and I go all in (remaining $100) and he calls and loses.

CURRENT HAND
stack sizes: Hero ~$400, Villain ~400, player2 ~$300

Hero: SB :Ad4: :jd4: <== should say Ace/jack of diamonds. Can't get it to embed properly?
Villain: UTG + 1 (don't think table placement matters to his range)
player2: MP

Pre-flop: Villain calls, player2 calls, Hero raises to $11. Villain and player2 both call. everyone else folds.

Flop: :8d4: :7d4: :5h4: ($37)
Hero checks, Villain bets (~$45), player2 folds, action on Hero. so $45 more into pot of $82


Here, this is a very strange bet from him. He has never even come close to betting near the pot, much less over it. He normally "value" bets each street when he has a good hand, giving others odds to call on draws/overs.

I think his over-bet is a mix of correcting his previous mistake / run-in with me, along with the possible draws on the board.

His possible ranges

I think bare minimum he has pocket pair :10d4: :10c4: up to :Ac4: :As4: 20% likelihood

2 pair possibilities - only put him on suited connectors :8c4: :7c4: although 85suited and 75s are possible. 25% likelihood

any possible set.:5c4: :5s4: - :8c4: :8s4: 30% likelihood

straight - :6s4: :4s4: or :9s4: :6s4: Here I gave a lower chance because seeing him call pre-flop with suited gappers. Also, I cant see him betting that much with 2 diamonds. 15% likelihood

top pair with any kicker - I think highly unlikely but 5% likelihood

bluff/semi-bluff - also think highly unlikely, but due to the nature of his odd bet I have to include this as a possibility. 5% likelihood


Analysis/questions
The fact that there is a very high probability I am behind after the flop and the fact that he over-bet the pot gives me the first thought that the odds aren't worth it. I wasn't able to fully calculate the odds/implied odds after this though because I am a little confused how to bring this all together, and I hoping someone could help me with the nitty gritty calculations.

Is this a straight fold every time due to improper odds? Or do implied odds have any effect here. Even if a diamond comes I think he is going to slow down, but I will most likely still get paid off (as long as 4 diamonds don't come). In the end I ended up folding, but I would like to know thoughts/opinions.

Also, a lot of my range assumptions were, more or less rather arbitrary. How does one overcome this when trying to put a range % on Villain. It is arguably the most important aspect of the analysis. I also don't have time to do all these calculations live at a table (obviously). And to continue on with the math of it, am I supposed to multiply my odds of winning on a certain street by each % range I have given him, then adding it all up? Help would be appreciated.
 
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jj20002

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if villain is tight as you say, then he should have a pair, otherwise why is he paying such a raise? it´s very unlikely to pay with connectors,

then if villain is correcting his mistakes he should raise and reraise preflop if holding a high pocket pair!

so if he is not bluffing he should have a set most probably 88, well i dont know is my feeling here!
 
weldphaser

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glem, good job with your reaads on opponent. is he seeing a lot of flops? just curiouss cause its never easy to define a limp/call range. its surely obv this dude is clueless. and of coure he ovr-bets the flop now with your mega draw. it sucks, but your def priced out.

side note: maybe you already have it, but if not you shoulld get equillab asap, its a free simulator that has some relly cool features. like breaking up villains range like you were trying to do .
 
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glemly

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This guy was not seeing a lot of flops but he wasn't the tightest fish ever. If I were to guess, maybe 20 VPIP.

I was also 95% I was currently behind (just not sure by how much), and was wondering if calling an over-bet when I am behind is ever worth drawing for due to some kind of implied odds / expected value I wasn't able to work out on my own.


I'll take a look at equilab, it sounds like it could help me out. I was watching a video earlier on perhaps something similar called ICMIZER where you input Villain's stack then possible ranges and it would tell you if it was a push/shove hand for you.
 
youregoodmate

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Why aren't we leading the flop?

I call the flop, he has plenty behind to warrant a call.
 
the_wonk

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i think your proposed hand ranges for villain are unreasonably pessimistic. donk bets (betting into the person with the betting lead) tend towards being top pair, draws, or combo draws in my experience, at least when the pot isn't massively multiway. i think you're going to be facing a lot of 98 or 76 type hands.

my decision is between calling and raising. with your read that villain is strong just call. even if you're beat you may have almost 50% equity in the pot with the flush draw + 2 overs and your implied odds are good at this depth. my default is going to be to raise fyi. if i call, i'm going to be raising the turn a lot too, assuming he's deep enough to fold his 98 or 76 type hands still.
 
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glemly

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Thanks for the response wonk,

I'm not sure why you think my ranges for Villain are unreasonably pessimistic, but it is definitely a possibility that my assigned range % for possible hands is off.

Since Villain is at most level 1 thinking, I believe 98 / 76 are at the lower end of his range here, but hypothetically lets say he does have that. The past several hours I have observed him he hadn't bet anywhere near 3/4 pot, much less an over-bet.

Looking back at my % likelihoods I agree 5% is too small for top pair, so lets say I give it a 30% for the sake of argument -


I still don't know how to do the calculations properly to determine if I have the right odds/equity/implied odds, etc. which is what I was really hoping someone could help me out with this post but no one seems to be able to. Also of importance - he has position on me.
 
the_wonk

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i'd think about your equity against different types of hands, and consider what they represent combinatorially, and then discount based on likelihood.

there might be mistakes below, or i might have accidentally omitted some likely hands, but in terms of the # of combos out there, you've got something like:

vs two pair:
87o/s, 57s = 11 combos

vs sets
88, 77, 55 = 9 combos

vs straights
96s, 64s = 8 combos



vs overpairs:
99, TT, JJ = (15 total combos)

vs combo draws
66, 76s, 65s, 98o/s, 54s, A6o/s, Ad5d = (44 combos)

vs straight draws
T9o/s (16 combos)

vs flush draws
AdXd, QdTd, Qd9d, KdQd (12 combos)
---


so that's something like 28 combos you're losing against and 87 combos you're crushing or ~even with. it makes sense to discount some now (like is he really playing 87o pre, etc?). and then see how your equity is generally in something like stove. but you can probably see why i'm weighting his range heavily towards the combo draws/draws now (there are so many of them and they make sense both preflop and with a flop donk).


 
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