$200 NLHE Full Ring: NLHE live $1-3 Hero faces over-bet with flush draw and 2 overs. Call/fold?
EDIT: disregard the $200 on the title, can't edit it for some reason.
This hand happened to me last night at the casino. This is my first hand analysis post so cut me some slack on the structure of it :P
Full table of 9, overall table is very tight, fishy. Been playing with Villain at least 2+ hours. He is very fishy and tight. Only bets when he has it (and from what he has shown it has always been more than top pair. Villain has only attempted 1 raise the entire 2+ hours, and he didn't know a min raise must be at least 2x the original bet (again, he doesn't know what he is doing).
Earlier run-in with Villain around ~1 hour ago I had A Q off, and raised to his KK pre-flop. He flat calls, then bets about 1/4 - 1/3 pot on a dry flop (but straight possibilities). I call with 2 overs with such a low bet, then hit a queen on the turn. he then bets even less on the turn ($20 into a pot of around $90-100), and I raise to $60. He only flat calls still, then an Ace hits the river and I go all in (remaining $100) and he calls and loses.
stack sizes: Hero ~$400, Villain ~400, player2 ~$300
Hero: SB :Ad4:
<== should say Ace/jack of diamonds. Can't get it to embed properly?
Villain: UTG + 1 (don't think table placement matters to his range)
: Villain calls, player2 calls, Hero raises to $11. Villain and player2 both call. everyone else folds.
Hero checks, Villain bets (~$45), player2 folds, action on Hero. so $45 more into pot of $82
Here, this is a very strange bet from him. He has never even come close to betting near the pot, much less over it. He normally "value" bets each street when he has a good hand, giving others odds
to call on draws/overs.
I think his over-bet is a mix of correcting his previous mistake / run-in with me, along with the possible draws on the board.
His possible ranges
I think bare minimum he has pocket pair
up to :Ac4: :As4: 20% likelihood
2 pair possibilities - only put him on suited connectors
although 85suited and 75s are possible. 25% likelihood
any possible set.
- 30% likelihood
Here I gave a lower chance because seeing him call pre-flop with suited gappers. Also, I cant see him betting that much with 2 diamonds. 15% likelihood
top pair with any kicker - I think highly unlikely but 5% likelihood
bluff/semi-bluff - also think highly unlikely, but due to the nature of his odd bet I have to include this as a possibility. 5% likelihood
The fact that there is a very high probability I am behind after the flop and the fact that he over-bet the pot gives me the first thought that the odds aren't worth it. I wasn't able to fully calculate the odds/implied odds after this though because I am a little confused how to bring this all together, and I hoping someone could help me with the nitty gritty calculations.
Is this a straight fold every time due to improper odds? Or do implied odds have any effect here. Even if a diamond comes I think he is going to slow down, but I will most likely still get paid off (as long as 4 diamonds don't come). In the end I ended up folding, but I would like to know thoughts/opinions.
Also, a lot of my range assumptions were, more or less rather arbitrary. How does one overcome this when trying to put a range % on Villain. It is arguably the most important aspect of the analysis. I also don't have time to do all these calculations live at a table (obviously). And to continue on with the math of it, am I supposed to multiply my odds of winning on a certain street by each % range I have given him, then adding it all up? Help would be appreciated.