$200 NLHE Full Ring: NL 200 live: KK OOP, villain seems strong on Q-high flop

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baudib1

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: NL 200 live: KK OOP, villain seems strong on Q-high flop

my biggest leak of late is missing spots to extract thinnish value on the river because i have a habitual fear of being 3-bet on the river.

I suppose this is a standardish spot complicated by the quirks of live reads.

Villain in this hand seems sorta solid-ish (remember $1/$2 live is a microstakes play for the most part) but makes some exotic/spewy moves some times, not at all aggressive pre but is stabby postflop. We tangled in a weird hand where i bet with TPNK on the button, he min-checkraised me and i called him down, he was barreling with an underpair and hit a 2-outer on the river. On another, I raised from LP with KJo and extracted about $60 from him on a k-high flop when he called from the BB with K8s.

The hand immediately before this, I had QQ UTG and he called from late position, we checked a KJJ, two-tone flop, I bet a flush card on the turn he calls, and I take it down when we check the river.

There are 4 limpers and I have :kc4::kd4: in the BB. I have been raising pre a lot more this session than usual, and have been caught with my hand in the cookie jar a couple times. The gameflow is such that there have not been a lot of big raises pre, but because of my image and just having QQ the hand before, I make an overly large raise to $30 and expect to get a call. Everyone folds but he calls from the button. I figure his range to be any PP, large broadways and a lot of AX. I have $455 and he has about $350ish.

Flop is :qh4::9d4::5h4:

I bet $55. He counts out TWO stacks of $55, thinks a minute, and pushes one forward for a call.

Turn is: :3s4:
I bet $110, he counts out TWO stacks of $110, thinks a minute, and pushes one forward.

River: :10c4:

Hero has $260 and villain has $165 behind....
 
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Marginal

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Him not showing aggression can mean a lot of things but mostly it says marginal hands, draws and the occasional slow play. You beat most of the range so I just shove expecting to see some J8 type hands sometimes but most of the time TP type hands. Biased analysis though.
 
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baudib1

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I suppose his indecision indicates a strong TP-type hand but he doesn't know where he is in the hand. I read it for slowplay though.

I was thinking of checking in case he wants to bluff since most draws missed.
 
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baudib1

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edit: the river is a Jc, not a Tc...which is probably a slightly worse card for me because he's more likely to have QJ than QT and more likely to have J9 than T9 I suppose.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I was thinking of checking in case he wants to bluff since most draws missed.
Eeek, be careful with that. Checking to induce from missed draws is only good if their hand rarely has showdown value. If you look at this board again and sum up the various draws he can have, I think you'll find that he'll very often have at least a pair to go with his "missed" draw. And pairs don't bluff in position on the river very often. That's why checking to induce on this board is probably bad, but much better if the board is something like

:6s4::7h4::7s4::2h4::jd4:
 
Weregoat

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There's $390 in the pot and he has KQ. What is there to think about? He has $165 behind, so jam and get it over with. If he really wanted to raise you, he'd raise you.

The fact that he counted out the two stacks of chips was to intimidate you, to ACT stronger than he was. The same as somebody at the table saying "be careful!" when they have a weak hand, or reaching for chips when it's not your turn to induce a check.

He could have caught on the river though, and that just sucks, but what this villain wants is to get to showdown with a hand that he doesn't really think is best, and if he has QJ there's not a lot you can do.

I personally would have bet closer to the pot on the turn.

If you jam on the river, you're still getting Fold equity > 0. And this pot is big enough you're happy to take it down, and I'd certainly take an overpair to showdown.

If he has something shady (QJ or JJ are the only hands I can fathom him having that bet you), then you've gotta pay him off, but I think checking is -EV (a lot of hands that you beat will call a bet here that has called a flop and turn bet, and there aren't many hands he has represented that beat you).

I highly doubt he was slowplaying you, he just wanted to get to a showdown cheap, I'd wager.
 
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