$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live poker: facing a $200 river bet on 98764 board

6

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This is a $1/$3 live NLHE game at my local casino with a $200 max buy-in. Hero has a $520 stack and the villain has a $1000 stack. Villain is fairly loose preflop and I have previously seen him bluff rivers on busted draws. One hand, I saw him raise J8o on the BTN and bet/bet/bet on a T9xxx board. On the river, he bet around $180 into a $250 pot with Jack high (busted OESD). Hero just recently made 2 big laydowns (folded KQ on K88JJ river facing $185 bet and folded AK on KJ9 rainbow flop facing $400 check-shove), so there's a chance that the villains are just taking advantage of the hero playing so tight.

Hero (UTG) is dealt 8s 7s

SB posts $1
BB posts $3
3 folds
Villain (MP1) raises to $12
MP2 calls $12
CO folds
Hero (BTN) calls $12
2 folds

$36 in pot (3 players)
Flop shows 9s 8c 7c

Villain (MP1) bets $20
MP2 calls $20
Hero (BTN) raises to $85
Villain calls $65
MP2 folds

$220 in pot (2 players)
Turn shows 6s

Villain checks
Hero checks

$220 in pot (2 players)
River shows 4h

Villain bets $200
Hero ???

What should the hero do here? And what do you think about the way the hero played the hand so far?
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Why does villain know about your big folds? Huge mistake to show these and it will make you level yourself in the future.

AP, River is a pretty trivial fold and would be a snap fold if not for the mistake of showing off your big lay downs on previous hands.
 
6

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Why is the river a trivial fold? On the flop, there are 2 types of draws: club draws and Tx draws. I expect all club draws to take this line (flatting the flop raise, checking turn and leading out big on river), but I don't expect all Tx hands to take this line of leading out a huge river bet (I actually expect Tx hands to either bet smallish like $100 on the river, to try to get me to call with worse, or to check-raise the river to induce bluffs from my busted draws and thin value bets), so if anything, I feel like there are plenty of busted draws in his range.
 
IPlay

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Do you think villain bets this large with sets on river or do you think it is only a busted draw or straight?

Once again, why are you giving them free info of your big folds? I kind of know the answer but I'd like to hear your reasoning.
 
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Do you think villain bets this large with sets on river

No, but I think that if the villain thinks that I have a set, that he'll think that I won't be calling such a large river bet, so he'll either bet small (to price me in to call) or check-raise the river in the hopes that I bet the river for thin value with a set in the hopes that he has an overpair or a 2 pair type hand. Most of the time, I expect the former (a much smaller river bet), and I only expect a huge river bomb if he has exactly JT (which I thought he couldn't have, since he'd be 3betting the flop with that hand).

or do you think it is only a busted draw or straight?

This was exactly what I was thinking. Either a straight or a busted flush draw. And the huge sizing was leading me to think he had a busted flush draw that was trying to scare me off the hand, especially given the huge laydowns he'd seen me make under pressure.

Once again, why are you giving them free info of your big folds? I kind of know the answer but I'd like to hear your reasoning.

For the KQ hand, I originally mucked my hand and wasn't going to say what I had, but then the villain told me "nice fold, I had 8-7 of diamonds", so I told the table I had KQ and explained my reasoning for the fold. For the AK hand, I folded and showed the hand because I thought it was a good fold and I was open to a discussion about it with the rest of the table. Plus I wanted them to know why I was tanking for so long (it took me over a minute before I made that fold). And I wanted to show them that I wasn't one of those fish that stacks off with TPTK every single time.

But anyway, even if you disagree with the river call, what do you think about the way I played on the flop and turn? Raising the flop and checking back the turn?
 
Trabendo_daze

Trabendo_daze

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This river is so not a trivial fold. I agree with Matt, his range is polarized to missed draws or straights. I never think he has sets here. Is he checking a T on the turn with two flush draws out there? I doubt it. Also, the only 5s that get this far are things like A5cc. I expect to see random 5s here often, a T here somewhat rarely, and busted draws here kind of often too.

Matt, you didn't note that he also could have missed a straight draw with any 6x. You need to be right here ~30% of the time and against this villain I'm probably calling.

Well played hand OTF and OTT. But yeah, like IPlay said, never show.
 
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