$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live poker: facing a blind Shove of $77 with AJo

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This is a $1/$3 live poker game at a casino with a $200 max buy-in. The game is running fairly deep, hero has $650 and 2 players have $1k+ stacks. Hero is in UTG+1 position with AJo. The player in UTG just open shoved his entire $77 stack before he was even dealt his cards.

What should hero do here? Fold? Call? Re-raise? Re-shove?

I decided to raise to $200 and thankfully everyone else folded and the UTG player had K3o, but it would've been really sick if someone put me all-in for my remaining $450 stack.
 
IPlay

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Just fold pre dude, too many people behind. I would probably open fold AJo UTG +1 on a 9 handed table.
 
duggs

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Just fold pre dude, too many people behind. I would probably open fold AJo UTG +1 on a 9 handed table.

um with 40 bb with a 100% range i dont think folding is good.


I just call OP
 
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Just fold pre dude, too many people behind. I would probably open fold AJo UTG +1 on a 9 handed table.

Sigh, its also 25bb not even 40.

But agreed. Call is way better, in fact I would say this is a spot where we shouldn't even have a raising range. Reason being calling is super strong and 2, raising AA or w/e here would lose a ton of value.
 
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I mean, you guys are better players then me but shouldn't we worry about the other 7 players behind us? I do agree calling>raising because calling probably just looks stronger but this is live and if you call you could go 5 handed OOP with AJo, which sucks.
 
duggs

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I mean, you guys are better players then me but shouldn't we worry about the other 7 players behind us? I do agree calling>raising because calling probably just looks stronger but this is live and if you call you could go 5 handed OOP with AJo, which sucks.

but its a dry sidepot, its not the scariest if people act behind us,
 
SteaknEggz

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i think call makes sense. a case can be made to fold as well. AJ vs two random cards isnt the greatest gamble in the world either so folding isnt a horrible option. the only play i hate here is the raise.
 
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i think call makes sense. a case can be made to fold as well. AJ vs two random cards isnt the greatest gamble in the world either so folding isnt a horrible option. the only play i hate here is the raise.

Your user name made me really crave some breakfast!!!

and Lol @ Jilly

This really just isn't a gamble I'd take in my live 1/2 games with the competition being so soft and how many preflop calling stations there is that would drool over this spot with their K10 soooooted.
 
Jillychemung

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IMHO I'd have raised to $225, called any shove for <$550, possibly fold to a shove >$600 depending on opponent and reads. If called by anyone, I'd be shoving almost all flops.

With OP's description if I flat here there is about a 50-50 chance of someone shoving over and if no one shoves then 100% chance going 5+ to the flop.
 
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If you are going 5ways in a 25bb raise then the game is terrible enough to never be folding here anyway. It's not 10$ raise, everyone is folding 90% of the time

Also raise folding is terrible. It's a call fold
 
duggs

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we cant put 200bb in and ever be in ok shape here,

just call pre, if people call with worse hands, awesome, if they shove better, no big deal
 
Trabendo_daze

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Super close between calling and raising. We want to isolate here, but with so many behind somebody could easily have us crushed with JJ+ or AQ/AK. On the other hand, calling isn't wonderful because you just know 5 people are going to call and we have AJo OOP in a multi-way pot, gross.

I'm probably raising and evaluating depending on the action after me. I know raise-folding is disgusting, but I think going 5-ways is very probable and is more disgusting.

Basically, Matt it depends on if you read that people are playing tight or loose with calls pre. If they are loose, raise and get them out. If they are tight, the original $75 should be good enough to induce folds.
 
duggs

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why is going 5ways bad? can someone explain that to me?
 
Trabendo_daze

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AJo is ahead of the random ATC that UTG has, but flops poorly in multiway pots and will be hard to navigate to showdown OOP when we have the best hand and it's not particularly strong.
 
duggs

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AJo is ahead of the random ATC that UTG has, but flops poorly in multiway pots and will be hard to navigate to showdown OOP when we have the best hand and it's not particularly strong.

but when there are 5 people in the pot will be $389, its not that hard to play a pot with AJ with an SPR of 1.5ish is it?

and honestly i doubt we are going 5 way any meaningful amount of the time, and if we do, awesome! people are putting money in with terrible equity and we can more or less play perfectly against them.
 
Trabendo_daze

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I mean, no if we're competent we can probably more or less play correctly. It's just that we're OOP and we're going to make more equity mistakes because we are. Furthermore, AJo is just the type of hand that we'll make equity mistakes with. OK they will have less equity than us, but it won't be that much less. Take something like this.

Hero calls AJo, V1 calls 79s, V2 calls KTo, V3 calls JTo, V4 calls 58s.

Those are random ass hands, but I think they're representative of shit that you're (duggs) looking to get called by. If we plug this into stove we get Hero(26%)>22% (KTo)>21%(79s)> 85s(21%)>JTo(8.5%).

I think we have less of an edge there than we do if we raise to $200. Tl;dr, I think it's really close between calling and raising. Something like this:

Raising>Calling>Folding>Shoving (lol, I had to put that on there)
 
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This is not even super close, or close, or remotely close. Its far. Anything but call here is terrible.
 
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I mean, no if we're competent we can probably more or less play correctly. It's just that we're OOP and we're going to make more equity mistakes because we are. Furthermore, AJo is just the type of hand that we'll make equity mistakes with. OK they will have less equity than us, but it won't be that much less. Take something like this.

Hero calls AJo, V1 calls 79s, V2 calls KTo, V3 calls JTo, V4 calls 58s.

Those are random ass hands, but I think they're representative of shit that you're (duggs) looking to get called by. If we plug this into stove we get Hero(26%)>22% (KTo)>21%(79s)> 85s(21%)>JTo(8.5%).

I think we have less of an edge there than we do if we raise to $200. Tl;dr, I think it's really close between calling and raising. Something like this:

Raising>Calling>Folding>Shoving (lol, I had to put that on there)

So what your saying is we have 26% of 389 which is 101$ and we invested 77$ and we can play it perfectly post since ya know, 1,5spr. Congratulations on instant profit.

Also Raising is by far second worse here. Raising doesn't fold out any better hands and it gets all worse hands to fold. Congratulations on playing yourself.
 
Trabendo_daze

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Aight man, I'd really like to meet someone that doesn't make mistakes in a 1.5 spr pot because I'm pretty sure they don't exist.

Raising DOES fold out better hands. 22-77 really have a hard time calling this raise and they're ALL ahead of AJo. Heck, even AQo is probably folding.

Let's just chalk this one up to differences in play styles, I guess.
 
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It actually shouldn't be a difference in playing styles. Raising doesn't accomplish anything and is probably way less profitable due to the times you get 4 bet and need to fold.

Its also a case where if you have a 0% raise range, your call acts as an effective isolation. Someone raises at this point its a cheaper fold with AJ and when you have AA for example and they raise its just way more profitable.
 
duggs

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I mean, no if we're competent we can probably more or less play correctly. It's just that we're OOP and we're going to make more equity mistakes because we are. Furthermore, AJo is just the type of hand that we'll make equity mistakes with. OK they will have less equity than us, but it won't be that much less. Take something like this.

Hero calls AJo, V1 calls 79s, V2 calls KTo, V3 calls JTo, V4 calls 58s.

Those are random ass hands, but I think they're representative of shit that you're (duggs) looking to get called by. If we plug this into stove we get Hero(26%)>22% (KTo)>21%(79s)> 85s(21%)>JTo(8.5%).

I think we have less of an edge there than we do if we raise to $200. Tl;dr, I think it's really close between calling and raising. Something like this:

Raising>Calling>Folding>Shoving (lol, I had to put that on there)

sure, but we realise more of ours when we have a better hand than they do, raising to 200 and folding honestly seems like lighting money on fire, are we really splitting our ranges and calling monsters and raising everything else? or are we always raising?

as a counter point,

I ran it with 4 players, since that was the max for slice today for some reason

V1 has 100% range

V2 has 38% capped to 99/AJ

V3 has 41% range capped to 88/AJ.

This ranges seem hugely unrealistic for the 2nd two but whatever i based it loosely on the fictional hands you assigned.

We have 34% equity.

The other situations also include, noone calling (which i think happens fairly often and shows no differences between raising and calling) and someone raising/shoving

Lets not ignore the times an opponent has TT+ AK+ which 3.4%x7 so 23.8% of the time we lose an additional $123. for fun we will assume that whenever this doesnt happen everyone folds to the raise but we get some callers if we dont (which i still dont agree with)

so .238(-123)-.34(308) + .64(145)

which is the prob of being raised and thus losing the additional 123, the difference between our equites. this number will show the benefit of raising over calling given assumptions

-29.274-104+92

so EV comparison comes out at around -$41. Calling is substantially better than raising under these assumptions.
 
Trabendo_daze

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Why wouldn't we raise with AA/KK, am I missing something? I certainly would? I don't want to go 5-ways with AA for the same equity reasons I outlined above.
 
duggs

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Why wouldn't we raise with AA/KK, am I missing something? I certainly would? I don't want to go 5-ways with AA for the same equity reasons I outlined above.

well i certainly wouldnt, seems like an amazing spot to hope people put more money in, and it has the added benefit of making it really hard to people to blow us off the pot willy nilly
 
Trabendo_daze

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So this is like a no-brainer fist-pump trap with AA?
 
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