Originally Posted by Trabendo_daze
I mean, no if we're competent we can probably more or less play correctly. It's just that we're OOP and we're going to make more equity mistakes because we are. Furthermore, AJo is just the type of hand that we'll make equity mistakes with. OK they will have less equity than us, but it won't be that much less. Take something like this.
Hero calls AJo, V1 calls 79s, V2 calls KTo, V3 calls JTo, V4 calls 58s.
Those are random ass hands, but I think they're representative of shit that you're (duggs) looking to get called by. If we plug this into stove we get Hero(26%)>22% (KTo)>21%(79s)> 85s(21%)>JTo(8.5%).
I think we have less of an edge there than we do if we raise to $200. Tl;dr, I think it's really close between calling and raising. Something like this:
Raising>Calling>Folding>Shoving (lol, I had to put that on there)
sure, but we realise more of ours when we have a better hand than they do, raising to 200 and folding honestly seems like lighting money on fire, are we really splitting our ranges and calling monsters and raising everything else? or are we always raising?
as a counter point,
I ran it with 4 players, since that was the max for slice today for some reason
V1 has 100% range
V2 has 38% capped to 99/AJ
V3 has 41% range capped to 88/AJ.
This ranges seem hugely unrealistic for the 2nd two but whatever i based it loosely on the fictional hands you assigned.
We have 34% equity.
The other situations also include, noone calling (which i think happens fairly often and shows no differences between raising and calling) and someone raising/shoving
Lets not ignore the times an opponent has TT+ AK+ which 3.4%x7 so 23.8% of the time we lose an additional $123. for fun we will assume that whenever this doesnt happen everyone folds to the raise but we get some callers if we dont (which i still dont agree with)
so .238(-123)-.34(308) + .64(145)
which is the prob of being raised and thus losing the additional 123, the difference between our equites. this number will show the benefit of raising over calling given assumptions
so EV comparison comes out at around -$41. Calling is substantially better than raising under these assumptions.