$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live NL300: JJ on KKx flop vs. aggro reg, lots of history

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baudib1

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Live $1-$3 game (1-3 should be a stakes option IMO).

There's a limp and I raise to $15 in EP with :js4: :jc4:
Aggro reg on my left calls, BTN calls, limper calls.
Comments on all streets welcome but I want to talk about flop/turn and handle river decision in 2 parts.

Villain is well-known, we're friends, he's good. He knows I'm raising a wide range preflop. He keeps muttering that he should 3-bet me more but hasn't yet. He's caught me in a pretty bad bluff earlier. Also my table image is pretty ridiculously LAG. I'll give thoughts as to his range after some comments.

Stack sizes: Me $375, Villain $1,100

Flop: (pot $64) :ks4: :7c4: :kc4: (4 players)
1 check, I bet $20, MP villain calls, 2 folds.

Turn: (pot $104) :10h4:
I bet $45, villain calls

River: ($194) :5c4:
Hero????
 
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baudib1

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BTW villain pretty casually called flop, tank-called on turn. I wasn't looking at him, but he was clearly unsure what to do.
 
tenbob

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You have $290 behind.

Pretty meh spot considering the dynamic, I really want to put out a block bet of $80 and fold to a raise.
 
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RamdeeBen

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I'm not going to try give advice obviously as I'm not in a position to give advice.;)

However, I'm wondering,

Why is your bet on the flop so small if he knows you're raising wide then he's going to float wide, so why dont you bet more and get more value?


My thoughts though. Think I'd bet more on flop, bet turn, c/c river.
 
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RamdeeBen

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You have $290 behind.

Pretty meh spot considering the dynamic, I really want to put out a block bet of $80 and fold to a raise.

Villian keeps muttering he wants to 3bet him, isn't it a bad time to b/f the river?


I also can't see villain electing to 3bet the river with complete air on this board and if there is history between them both, surely villain knows hero won't fire the turn with complete air to bloat a pot where he will more times than not have to c/f's most rivers with his air hands.
 
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tenbob

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Villian keeps muttering he wants to 3bet him, isn't it a bad time to b/f the river?


I also can't see villain electing to 3bet the river with complete air on this board and if there is history between them both, surely villain knows hero won't fire the turn with complete air to bloat a pot where he more times than not c/f's the river.

I'm pretty sure pre-flop actions have little to do with how the hand plays out on the river, prob even more so in villians mind.

I really hate c/f this river, i also think he checks behind almost all of his bluff catchers, and raises all of his decent made hands. He might even level himself into calling with small flushes. Considering how crappy our image is i still think i bet small/fold. Basically i just want to get to showdown cheaply, but get some sort of value out his mid pairs.
 
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RamdeeBen

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I'm pretty sure pre-flop actions have little to do with how the hand plays out on the river, prob even more so in villians mind.

I really hate c/f this river, i also think he checks behind almost all of his bluff catchers, and raises all of his decent made hands. He might even level himself into calling with small flushes. Considering how crappy our image is i still think i bet small/fold. Basically i just want to get to showdown cheaply, but get some sort of value out his mid pairs.


That's why I think c/c the river after firing the turn is the best line, if he has limp/called pre flop with small/medium pocket pairs he's likely to fire the river once we check back to him but I don't think we are weak enough to b/f (considering our image) the river and c/c the river would be just spewy as I can't see him 3betting air on the river.
 
tenbob

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c/c is fine if we know that he will bet pretty small. I puke in my mouth a bit if he bets anywhere close to the pot though.
 
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baudib1

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Reason for small flop bet was to bet/fold vs. the other two in the hand and induce float from villain (on my left). Couple people have commented on small sizing and I could be convinced that they are right.

Only problem I see is larger sizing on flop leaves less room to maneuver on turn and river. If I bet $35 flop, turn bet should be in $60-$80 range and then we're left with less than PSB on river. Maybe go for $30/$55?
 
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baudib1

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Some good comments BTW.

Think I'd bet more on flop, bet turn, c/c river.

I think your line is good. My other concern was that bigger bet on the turn probably convinces him I have a hand, whereas the smaller one probably keeps him in with a wider range of bluffcatchers. how much would you bet on flop/turn and how much do you c/c on river?

I don't think we are weak enough to b/f (considering our image) the river and c/c the river would be just spewy as I can't see him 3betting air on the river.

Assume you mean b/c. Agree that b/f sucks vs. someone who might be capable of shoving as a bluff. Despite our extensive history, there's not a ton of rebluffing going on so I agree that b/c river would be batshit crazy.
Ram, I think your comments here have been excellent so you're well-positioned to give advice.

Bob:
I really hate c/f this river, i also think he checks behind almost all of his bluff catchers, and raises all of his decent made hands. He might even level himself into calling with small flushes. Considering how crappy our image is i still think i bet small/fold. Basically i just want to get to showdown cheaply, but get some sort of value out his mid pairs.

C/F river seems almost out of the question IMO. Where I disagree is that I don't think he checks behind almost all of his bluff catchers. I think he'd check back something as good as, say, QTcc, but bet a pretty polarized range. I think he is capable of turning the weakest part of his range into bluffs, which heavily leans our decisions to c/c instead of b/f IMO.
 
BelgoSuisse

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I think he is capable of turning the weakest part of his range into bluffs, which heavily leans our decisions to c/c instead of b/f IMO.

What weakest part of his range exactly? You really think he turns a pair into a bluff on the river? And you really think his value range on the river is Axcc + boats since you say he checks back QTcc.

I think you both overestimate his bluffing range and underestimate his value range if you check the river.
 
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baudib1

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Yes, he turns most of his range into a bluff on the river. I have him beat on the turn close to 100% IMO. His range is mostly mediocre made hands and a few draws and a few monsters like 77.
 
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sactokid544

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Yes, he turns most of his range into a bluff on the river. I have him beat on the turn close to 100% IMO. His range is mostly mediocre made hands and a few draws and a few monsters like 77.
I agree that he does turn most of his range into a bluff on the river.

But I'm not a fan of c/c the river. If you know he isn't bluff-raising a ton, I would b/f river.

What happens when he does decide to bluff river and makes a PSB? Gross. Puts you in a gross spot because calling is like break-even. I'm assuming that turning most of his range into a bluff on the river equates to him bluffing 1/3 or 2:1.

Since calling a PSB is like break-even, then I think b/f is better since he only raises his strong hands and since you believe you have his range crushed on the turn, then his range contains mostly bluff-catchers.

So, a bet on the turn results in getting value 2/3 times and losing the pot to a raise 1/3. So it looks +EV to me.

Could be wrong though. I'm kinda speed-analyzing. lol
 
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baudib1

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River: ($194) :5c4:
Hero checks, villain bets...

How much are we calling?
 
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joannhasthenuts

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So did he turn a king or did you win with JJ... I still can't figure out what villian had
 
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Poker_play

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Imo up the fop and turn bets. 1/3 pot on flop then less than 1/2 turn? That's ok with say ak where you're inviting action, but here you clearly want to push a lot of hands out/get a better feel for where you are.

As played, on river ...do you think you can get respect (get kj/kq hands to fold) with ch/shove here, effectively turn your hand into a bluff? This is entirely history and villain dependent of course. Probably not ideal route for superlaggy image lol

Does villain slowplay regularly?

B/f anc c/c are close otherwise
 
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Henreiman

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I think river has to be blocker bet. He could be calling with slightly worse, could be folding slightly better if he's read you on the flush (since you are both regs less likely). It's a tough spot but I think we're in much worse shape if we check and he bets big
 
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sactokid544

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River: ($194) :5c4:
Hero checks, villain bets...

How much are we calling?

1/2 PSB?

If you think he turns most of his range into a bluff on the river, then a PSB since you will win 2/3 of the time...?
 
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baudib1

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Imo up the fop and turn bets. 1/3 pot on flop then less than 1/2 turn? That's ok with say ak where you're inviting action, but here you clearly want to push a lot of hands out/get a better feel for where you are.

As played, on river ...do you think you can get respect (get kj/kq hands to fold) with ch/shove here, effectively turn your hand into a bluff? This is entirely history and villain dependent of course. Probably not ideal route for superlaggy image lol

Does villain slowplay regularly?

B/f anc c/c are close otherwise

I've gone back and forth in my mind a few times, as the most common feedback I've gotten on this hand is to bet bigger on flop and turn. But really I wanted to get to showdown with this villain having his range as wide as possible. I don't think I see the point in whittling his continuing range down to Kx+/FDs.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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You have $290 behind.

Pretty meh spot considering the dynamic, I really want to put out a block bet of $80 and fold to a raise.

Wow tough spot.. I really dont like c/c, because if he fires big its a hard call.

I like the block bet and fold to a raise, but maybe bet $100.
 
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Poker_play

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Betting more on the flop helps make your decisions easier on later streets imo. How do you play this if the turn is a queen? An ace? You're inviting anythin that didn't completely miss flop with your flop bet, especially w lag image.

Keeping villain range in is nice sometimes, but you didn't check flop for a reason-you don't have a comfortable hand here.

As lag, variance is higherr anyway..no need to increase it even more by slowplay/valuebetting very shaky hands and inevitably putting you in spots where you have to make a herocall.

Ive heeard many a pro say they would give up a little equity in order to make the hands easier to play/make decisions easier, and I tend to agree
 
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baudib1

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Betting more on the flop helps make your decisions easier on later streets imo. How do you play this if the turn is a queen? An ace?

How does betting more on the flop make it easier to play? By making the river bet a shove? The goal is to extract value, not make hands easy to play.

This hand was pretty easy IMO.

You're inviting anythin that didn't completely miss flop with your flop bet, especially w lag image.

This is precisely what I want. Why do I want to fold out worse hands?
 
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Poker_play

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Protecting your hand, especially w your flop bet, is way more +ev than any value you'll get by slowplaying here.

I'm sure someone's done the math on when it is optimal to slowplay (risk losing the pot a greater % of the time for a shot at better pot)..it can't be here tho. You risk losing the pot a signicant % of the time by giving a cheap turn, 4 handed with several overcards to worry about and the odds of you getting paid off in any significant way w this hand are slim).

Nothing's wrong with winning a smaller pot a bigger % of the time. Greed in these spots has to lead to insane variance.

Also..I mean it's obv villain/game dependant, but if villain had called 2 much bigger bets (say 2/3 psb)..you'd have a bettter idea that you're behind by the river, and you'd know your only real shot is a bluff. Maybe keeping range in is more ev, but I def like to have as much information as possible before makin big river decisions.
 
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baudib1

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IMO your mindset ITT is so alien it's difficult to comprehend.

Protection is the least of our concerns in this hand. It's a 4-way pot and if a lot of money goes in at any point we're going to be putting it in bad. On the other hand, the parts of villain's range that flats flop/flats turn mostly has 2-5 outs and that's the part that we drive out if we bet big.

Protection is not a valid reason for betting, and certainly not a valid reason for betting BIG , especially not on KK7cc with JJ vs. an aggro/bluffy opponent.
 
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