$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live game, shove river vs. 2?

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baudib1

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Live $1-$3 game, I Mississippi straddle on BTN for $15.

3 callers, including 1 nit and 1 LAG. I have a hand I could easily raise but check it instead as almost no pots are being taken down preflop and there's tons of back-raising going on with people getting it in pre with 66/AJ/KQ type hands. Also the nit's limp range probably crushes me.

I'm not going to reveal my hole cards because I want you to think of everyone's ranges instead.

Stack sizes: Nit $300, LAG $450, me $400ish

Flop comes: :10h4: :ah4: :8c4:

2 checks and LAG bets $25 into $60ish, I call OTB, 1 fold, nit calls.

Detailed notes on villains: LAG is, well, very LAGGY. He usually bets pretty big with made hands, this stab here is probably air, middle pair, weak draw. He certainly raises most Aces pre.

Important: LAG perceives me as a huge nit (most of you will find this to be completely LOL) but he only saw me play once and I was just in a session where I had no spots to make big moves (IMO). I have also seen him make huge folds for not much money.

The Nit is typical of a lot of live nits in that they play better hands than you but play their ranges face-up. One hand earlier tonight he tank-called with trips when I bluff-raised his donk on the river. On a big hand he played against someone else he bet-called then check-called huge bets on flop and turn with monster draw and then checked his missed draw on river. I think he would probably just bet out or check/shove AJ+ here.

Turn (pot: $136): :9s4:

Both check. I bet $75, nit calls, LAG says, "don't know what I got myself into," and calls.

River (pot $361): :2c4:
Both check.

What are their ranges and what should hero do here?

Stack sizes: Nit has under $200, LAG around $350, I have less than a PSB bet.
 
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baudib1

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You win a prize if you can guess my hand.
 
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baudib1

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I should clarify that "nit" probably plays something like 30/3 and only bets when he has it.
 
duggs

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Ill give it a go but iv probably narrowed too much here,

Nit range, A smaller than 7s KQs/o KJs/o J10 small pocket pairs between 22-77
most likely a busted draw, (just to critique my thought process, i eliminated big pairs as a raise pre and Strong aces or two pair would reraise on flop, which leaves broadways suited and unsuited and given no bet on river he probably missed, or small pairs.)
Lag range J10 Q10 56h 45h. very unlikely but maybe 67h/o. (i removed Ax due to flat pre, i removed 109 and 108 98 as these would probably bet river/turn)


hero could probably take pot down with a bet enough to be profitable with no showdown value, also if hero holds hand better than 10x betting is still good as that portion of his range gives us value.
Edit:
thinking about it iv probably left too much in the nits range, remove 22-77,
and 67 should be taken out of the lags range
 
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duggs

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i removed almost all winning hands from Lags range because if he views you as a nit, check/calling turn and then checking intending to call river seems unlikely. i find it hard to give him a range he would check call turn and check river with that isnt a weak draw or combo thats folding river.
 
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baudib1

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for sure I think LAG has no hands he's calling a bet with that he wouldn't bet himself.

your analysis seems pretty good.
 
calicard

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10 10 that is my guess. you said you had a hand you could raise with. I do not think you are the type to raise with QJ or 67. If not 10 10 then I would say 88. You bet so you had a hand. Actually I say 88 because 10 10 I think you might have raised preflop. So I say 88. But you did not bet till the 9 hit so Maybe 99
 
duggs

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Deciding on your hand seems hard, JJ+ seems too strong a hand not to raise pre and be happy about stacking off given capped ranges and back raising you described. 1010 or 88 would surely be raising for value on that flop, i cant see 99 or 77 floating there, J10 and QJ seem quite possible, although suited would be discounting alot of hands in Nits range, I guess QJs (not hearts)
 
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baudib1

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do you think we should bet our bricked heart draws? I mean I probably would but in the cold light of day it seems bad
 
duggs

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wouldnt we be raising KQs KJs and QJs (hearts) on the flop?

weaker hearts i guess so, i think we fold out the LAG close to 100% of the time, but if we held one of the 3 hands above wouldnt this cut into the nits number of combos and make him holding Ax more likely given action?
 
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It seems like both nit and LAG get to the river with weak pairs/busted draws.

nit is limping a reasonable amount if he's 30/3ish. Suited connectors and broadway type hands as well as small-mid PP's. I don't think nit would continue on flop with small PP's (22-77) and would dump the KT, QT mid-pair hands on the turn. Nit would also bet the top pair/2-pair hands so those can go as well. So he shows up on the river with mostly draws that didn't get there (if he's checking) like heart connectors and broadway draws. Outside possibility of a JT/J9/J8 as well. That being said I think nit folds most of their range on the river after the check. Very possibly all of it.

lag is giving off essentially the same type of range. As you say, we can eliminate many Ax's due to no PFR. Bet on the flop can be anything from suited hearts to broadway/OESD with J9, 79 to a Tx hand. Grumpy c/c on turn seems to be more of the same, especially if he reads you and the other players as nitty. Hits the river with all kinds of air and mid-pairs he isn't happy to continue with and folds nearly 100% of his range as well.

So it seems like regardless of what you have you should probably bet. Anything smaller than a shove seems silly.

I think you have 88 or QJ suited (cc/ss/dd). If nit if as open-book as you say then you probably don't get too crazy and semi-bluff the turn 3-way. Trying to do that to set up the river bluff just seems to be getting too fancy. I suppose 10's is possible but I expect a PFR from them. Too much dead money in a limped 5x straddle pot, even in a no-fold-em live game.
 
bgomez89

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Lag: heart draws, 78/68/J9/JT, 77, Axs
Nit: heart draws, Axs, 99/77/JJ
Hero: QJ/KQ/AJ/KT
 
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baudib1

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Yeah I definitely don't have something J9hh+ here
 
WVHillbilly

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How likely is the nit to call a big river bet with Ax since he caught you bluffing earlier in the evening?
 
bgomez89

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Depends on if he's bad or not
 
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baudib1

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How likely is the nit to call a big river bet with Ax since he caught you bluffing earlier in the evening?

this is a legit question. in previous hand I horrendously misjudged his river donk range as some sort of blocking bet with a mid-pair. I think there's pretty close to 0% chance either one is checking a big hand for two streets; neither player is a trappy type. Nit makes small value bets with top pairish hands and bigger bets with big hands and never bluffs. LAG bluffs a lot but backs down quickly vs. resistance. In 2 big hands he won earlier, he c/c flop with weak top pair and them donned turn when he made 2 pair. I think duggs is spot on; LAG's range is capped at like JT as the best hand he'd have here. Nit may have an A4-A5 hand but more likely has a big flush draw.

I feel like my range is wider but top end is certainly stronger; I have as many draws as the other two but more often have a A8-A9 type hand and repping QJ/T9 and draws that pick up equity on the turn.
 
duggs

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this is a legit question. in previous hand I horrendously misjudged his river donk range as some sort of blocking bet with a mid-pair. I think there's pretty close to 0% chance either one is checking a big hand for two streets; neither player is a trappy type. Nit makes small value bets with top pairish hands and bigger bets with big hands and never bluffs. LAG bluffs a lot but backs down quickly vs. resistance. In 2 big hands he won earlier, he c/c flop with weak top pair and them donned turn when he made 2 pair. I think duggs is spot on; LAG's range is capped at like JT as the best hand he'd have here. Nit may have an A4-A5 hand but more likely has a big flush draw.

for what its worth I also tend to think that nits tend to treat multiway and HU pots completely differently, bluffing a HU pot doesnt translate to bluffing multiway,
thoughts?
 
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baudib1

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So it seems like regardless of what you have you should probably bet. Anything smaller than a shove seems silly.

ya I obviously felt this way as well, both of them flatting the turn bet defines their ranges well. Obviously plan on turn was to give up on river hearts and value shoving offsuit Qs/7s. Folding to big bet on K/J rivers and shoving on most bricks.

no one guessed my hand yet.
 
WVHillbilly

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Well if you're planning on value shoving os Qs/7s you must have J9, most likely sooted but not hearts.

Anyway as played I think you need to jam the river so you don't end up losing to the LAGs JT/107.
 
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baudib1

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oh yeah, oops gave it away. I had KJo.
 
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baudib1

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Happily, the both folded. Sadly, KJo was the best hand.
 
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