$200 NLHE Full Ring: live game, AQo on AKx monotone board/TPTK +NFD

I raise UTG in 8-handed live game with and get 2 callers. I guesstimated villain's stats, he's a pretty good TAG who certainly understands position (he probably talks too much openly about it, like he never calls raises from the blinds because it's unprofitable, rather, he 3-bets a lot OOP). He is capable of making moves on the pot but generally only when people show weakness in raised pots.

I raise to $15 and villain calls from CO and the BB calls. I have about $300 and villain has me well covered.

Flop is



Pot is $45. I checked my hole cards to see that I had the Qs and bet $35. He calls and BB folds.

Turn is

Pot is $115, I bet $65 and he calls.

River is


Pot is $245 and hero has about $185 behind...

If I shove I honestly doubt I get called by worse.
Thoughts that cross my mind:

1. He recognizes me as a tight player but has seen me show down some odd holdings once in a while.

2. What's villain's range? Preflop he is calling all pairs, big Aces and good suited broadways. I don't see him calling too many weaker aces, AJ/AT probably but not too much A9o or worse.

Because of the big cards on the board, I don't see him having many, if any, flush draws in his range unless it is like AxJs, he may muck ATo in this spot. I don't think he has AK too often but it's possible.

I am pretty sure he raises sets on the flop, of which there are almost no combos anyway (he never has AAA or KKK cuz he's 3-betting them almost always).

So, OK, he can be slowplaying a flopped flush, of which there aren't many combos either. He can have something like JTss or T9ss but not too many smaller ones, if at all. Hard to believe he'd not raise some of them on the turn for value/protection as it's pretty likely I have a decent spade to keep firing.

Does he have pure missed flush draws? I don't see too many as I think he will fold a lot of KJo/ATo type stuff to an EP raise, he'd probably call with AJo.

So I'm going to think his range to get to the river is almost always going to be like AQ/AJ. It's possible he is floating with something like KQ thinking I may be semibluffing an underpair like JxJs or QxQs.

I think our best option is to bet-fold about $75 here to get calls from AJo?

I'd go with the under bet /spaz out line.

I'd probably bet like $45, intending to snap a shove. The bet is designed to either 1) get called down light by worse or 2) get villain to spaz out with worse holdings since our hand looks like we're trying to extract very thin value / blocker bet and we can't call a raise (of course we're going to though)

I'm designing the bet SO small only bc of his stack size of 185 (needs to be left room to spaz out)

I pretty much agree with your analysis that he doesn't have many 2 pairs or sets in his range, nor very many flushes that don't raise the turn either for value (vs sets AK and big Aces with or without a spade) or for protection (since their flush is obv not the nuts). I think AxJs/AxTs, QxJs/QxTs/JT (one being a spade) make up the majority of his range, while smaller flushes show up occasionally as well. I think against an opponent capable of spazzing out when we show extreme weakness but not good enough to see through the fake blocker bet this under bet/spaz out line is the most profitable one to take... a question could up well if this is the case why wouldn't we just check call? Well for starters we lose a little value against his pair hands that may look such a cheap bet up but will check behind for showdown value. More importantly though I think when we check on a blank it looks like we are check calling, thus it discourages villains from bluffing, where as raising a weak bet appears to look strong to villains than simply just betting themselves and our line makes us actually look weaker than checking (it looks like our bet is extract super thin value and or a defensive bet bc we can't call any more)

I like that a lot.

and obviously we can't bet-fold getting ridic odds.