Originally Posted by jaded848
But my question is, BB is obviously not folding the flop, but is his call on the turn correct?
What is beating him in this hand? While I don't agree with the way he played it, obviously it worked for him in this case.
With him just check/calling the whole way, he makes it incredibly unlikely him to extract any value on the river. With a board of QT9 if I remember correctly, he is behind only KJ, J8, QT, Q9, and 9T, as well as the obvious sets. Against a set, or two pair, he has the same number of outs, 6, his two remaining kings and the four missing jacks, so the rule of fours tell us he's 24% to win if he's behind, and we know he's a little better than that.
He's ahead of all one-pair hands, and he likes when he's up against one pair with 2nd kicker, which is drawing to only trips to him, and or a hand involving an Ace. As long as he's not up against AK, is sure to win a big pot if his J comes. So as far as outs go, with 6 in the worst case scenario, and being ahead the whole way in the best case scenario, with a total of 12 on the turn against two pair, I don't think he got bad odds
to call any of the bets.
I'd guess some ranging could come into play here, but against so many villains for so many pots, it's questionable it even matters.
What's atrocious is his check on the river. The only hands that are going to bet into him are going to chop a gigantic pot with him, or stack him with the better straight. On such an obvious straight board with 2nd best straight, holding two of the four cards in the various combinations to beat him, he can safely bet this street for value at whatever amount he chooses, and may even entice a player to try to make a move at the pot, which I believe the correct response would be to call, since we don't have the nuts, but still have a very strong hand and are likely to be best. The only hands that call a bet/raise are going to either chop the pot or beat us, so just a call will suffice should we encounter a raise on the river.
Again, not how I would have played it, but unconventional play with big hands is sometimes rewarded.
Playing the hand backwards, I would have bet the river.
I would have either bet or check/raised the turn.
I would have bet or check/raised the flop.
And I definitely would have re-raised preflop. Out of position with KK can really mess you up when an A hits.
There was an interesting post a number of months ago in a very similar hand. Basically it's AA with an inside straight flush draw against a set of kings, and it showed all the equity the hand had... If I remember correctly.
Of course, he doesn't have the inside SFD here, but he still has a ton of equity unless the villain with chips remaining has AA, and even then he's still got a shot, and the action on the table isn't really indicitave of AA, however our villain doesn't have a way to know it since he never raised, but I'm sure he doesn't care too much.