$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live game: AA vs. tight player on terrible board

$200 NL HE Full Ring: Live game: AA vs. tight player on terrible board

Action:
This is actually a $1/$3 game. LAG (about $900 behind) who has raised about 70% of hands limps UTG, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, MP2 folds, CO ($250ish) raises to $18.

I approximated CO's stats for this session, I have seen him play much looser/LAGgier in other sessions, but he's been squeaky tight tonight, may be running card dead (ss about 60 hands).

Hero (has $850 and is playing really tight) is BTN with and reraises to $58. SB ($75) folds, BB ($550) tanks and folds, callers fold.

Flop (pot $126):

CO checks, Hero checks

Turn:
CO checks, Hero checks

River:
CO checks, Hero bets $60.

oh btw i estimate he was playing 12/5 over 80 hands that night.

****ing shit bet the nine please.

I dunno what the question is.

Checking behind the flop isn't terrible (we're in a shitty spot if raised) but if we do for god sakes bet the turn. As played I dunno how we don't go for value on the river since our hand is so underrepped,the bet seems fine (I'd even size it bigger)

fwiw i don't think our hand is underrepped, i am pretty sure both of us had a good idea of where we each were. I have his range at roughly TT+, AK, which may be too loose and he thinks my range is QQ+/AK here (imo, if he's not shipping 85 BBs with that range pre).
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baudib1 said:

fwiw i don't think our hand is underrepped

Click to expand...

Well, then you're just wrong.

I guess checking the flop is an alright move, but i'd put some serious consideration into betting it here. I mean what do you think he has?
If you're putting him on AK, 10 10, AQ, any of those possible hands then bet! If you're putting him on JJ QQ or 99 then you're just wrong because he would be silly to check knowing any spade or straight card can kill him, which is alot of outs.

I'm interested to know what you thought he had here to make you not bet?

If not to bet there, I agree with the others above, you absouletly have to bet the turn. No question about it. You made all those mistakes except for the pre-flop raise and the value bet on the river isn't bad.

Hand 0: 49.177% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.823% { AdAh }

Flop check = standard

c9h13no3 said:

Hand 0: 49.177% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 50.823% { AdAh }

Flop check = standard

Click to expand...

You're adding the percentages of two different hands..

If he was playing against a guy with 4 cards to his AA then I agree the check is standard.

But, if he's versing a 10 10 put him to a decision to pay to draw?
Same situation with an AQ. Combined together i'm sure that makes the hand more equal.

I'm not doubting that that's a common method in calculating the hand in this situation, but to me it seems a little silly.

Hes actually using more than two different hands! TT+ meaning TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQ+ meaning AQ, AK AQs+ meaning AQs, AKs so it closer to 9 kinds of hands with a huge number more hands when you look at the combinations of each of those hands.

The reason this is the "normal" method is because we dont know what our opponents hand is. Since we don't know what is in his hand we try to guess several possible hands and see how our hand does against all of them weighed against the likelyhood that each of them is there.

In this case our hand is pretty much dead even against the number of hands he is playing with two cards to come. So checking is pretty standard.

and yes he might have a TT, but he also might have a QQ, or a JJ, or an AK, or ATs, or KK, or AQs, or AQo/s... see how we actually need to think of more than 1 hand that he could have? especially since TT makes up a pretty small percentage of the hands he is playing in this spot.

I replied to many, maybe all, of those hands in my post above^^

I think his range is somewhat tighter and AQ is unlikely (he had shown up with AQs in a limped pot previously) and TT may be stretching it. I didn't bet the turn because of the SPRs and I felt he could check-raise quite often with hands that have me crushed or 40%+ equity still on the turn (say, KsKx or AsK) and I'd be forced to call because of odds.

I can see how betting the turn is standard though.

I'd like to give you the results here and ask what you think of the hand from villain's perspective knowing that he called with KsKc.

-Phil Ivey27 said:

But, if he's versing a 10 10 put him to a decision to pay to draw?
Same situation with an AQ. Combined together i'm sure that makes the hand more equal.

Click to expand...

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/

This flop check is standard. I don't really know what you're complaining about, but anything other than a check here is pretty bad. I guess its a little debatable because the stacks are a lot shallower than in this example. However, I gave villain a pretty loose 3-bet calling range OOP for a tight player, and it was the thinnest value bet ever. Given that the OP thinks his range is likely tighter, I think we can very happily check back, gain a ton of equity against draws, and get to showdown with our medium strength hand.

I realize the line "Rawr, I haz aces, bet!" probably hasn't failed you yet, but sometimes we can do better.

Pretty sure I make my 3bet bigger (~$70) in every live game I've ever played.

Bet the turn.

If villain can really put you strictly on QQ+/AK when you 3bet them, you're playing too tight.