$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live game: 2-street bluff turns beautiful card

$200 NL HE Full Ring: Live game: 2-street bluff turns beautiful card

Live game: Raise on button to $12 behind 1 limper with JcTc. Loose-passive player in SB calls, limper calls. Limper is a decent player, loose but trappy.

Flop: Qc 7d 5h

Both check, seems like an innocuous flop that not many hands would continue on. Bet $25 into $37 pot. Both call.

Turn: 8c

Both check. Hero? Double barrel or take the free card?

I take the free card.

I think SB has a weak pair, 5, 7 or a weak queen. I don't want to try and get him to fold the queen, which I think is the most likely.

Limper could have could have just about anything 88-JJ, A6s, K6s, 68 or 46 or he could have flopped two pair or a set, we really don't know much at this stage.

If you just check behind, you either catch a club and bet/raise or catch a jack or ten and hope to check it down.

Depends on you read of callers and their likelihood to continue. You haven't mentioned effective stacks, which play an important part (if you bet are stacks the size that you'd have to call a shove if its a CRAI?) I think if we're deeper and villains give us respect when we fire 2 shells, Id bet again, if we were shallower and villains called down a decent amount I;d take a freebie

The 8 improves the hand values of most hands that call the flop. I don't see a lot of fold equity firing into two players here, and we have position, so we should be able to get a lot of money in when we hit.

Take the free card.. It's hard to make both people fold with this board

Take the freecard.
If we had one caller here this would be debatable.

With two callers the queen is simply just too likely.

Deco said:

Take the freecard.
If we had one caller here this would be debatable.

With two callers the queen is simply just too likely.

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Thats not the point. the point is whether or not another shell will fold out a Queen and if so how often compared to the times we dont improve. for the times we dont improve on the river how often can a third shell win us the pot?. This is obviously villain dependent and dependent on your table image

It isnt as simple as well he has a queen so we cant win

Zybomb said:

Thats not the point. the point is whether or not another shell will fold out a Queen and if so how often compared to the times we dont improve. for the times we dont improve on the river how often can a third shell win us the pot?. This is obviously villain dependent and dependent on your table image

It isnt as simple as well he has a queen so we cant win

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People fold toppair in live games?

Your against two loose players at a low stakes Live game. Trying to bluff them off top pair is suicidal.

Deco said:

People fold toppair in live games?

Your against two loose players at a low stakes Live game. Trying to bluff them off top pair is suicidal.

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Yea this is 1/2 NL point taken. Like i said, opponent dependent and table image dependent. Obv if villain will c/c 3 streets with QJ triple barreling is pointless, but it's not necessarily the case just bc its low limit live poker.

Just noticed you have a flush draw.
I like betting now as your equity rocks so much and your building a big pot for when you hit.

Use a hand converter its hard to see you have a flush there.

Deco I don't think hand converters work with live hands

The hand is very very villian dependant, in my own weekly live game, I bet this against around half the players there and take the free card against the other half. The half I check against will stack any queen regardless of what river card hits.

tenbob said:

Deco I don't think hand converters work with live hands

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The mods sarcasim detector seems to be broken again ...

Kinda surprised no one asked this yet but what are the stack sizes?
Im asuming since u didnt specify effective is just 200$?

sindri_93 said:

Kinda surprised no one asked this yet but what are the stack sizes?

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Zybomb said:

Depends on you read of callers and their likelihood to continue. You haven't mentioned effective stacks, which play an important part (if you bet are stacks the size that you'd have to call a shove if its a CRAI?) I think if we're deeper and villains give us respect when we fire 2 shells, Id bet again, if we were shallower and villains called down a decent amount I;d take a freebie

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:hello:

You win .

sindri_93 said:

The mods sarcasim detector seems to be broken again ...

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It's working fine I'm afraid I was deadly serious.

Deco said:

Just noticed you have a flush draw.
I like betting now as your equity rocks so much and your building a big pot for when you hit.

Use a hand converter its hard to see you have a flush there.

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This I don't get.

If you don't think there's much fold equity, there's no point building a pot for your draw that is rarely going to get there.

Betting a draw is either:
Semi-bluff = Fold equity+Pot equity (which we don't have in this hand)
Or
Building a pot and disguising draw. For this you need an opponent to have a big enough hand to call a big bet on the river and you need them to be good enough to be worth disguising your hand against in the first place. - Again, we don't have this in this hand.



Take a free card.

thepokerkid123 said:

If you don't think there's much fold equity, there's no point building a pot for your draw that is rarely going to get there.

Betting a draw is either:
Semi-bluff = Fold equity+Pot equity (which we don't have in this hand)

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We have plenty of pot equity with 13 outs to the nuts, roughly a 3:1 draw.

Its the fold equity I don't think we have.

The pot equity is great.

It's enough to call a bet, but not enough to do the betting with what I think is very little fold equity.

thepokerkid123 said:

The pot equity is great.

It's enough to call a bet, but not enough to do the betting with what I think is very little fold equity.

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Look at my earliar post. If it was not for this immense draw I wouldn't think we have enough fold equity and I strongly suggested we take the free card.

However the draw changes everything. With a draw this strong betting goes from horrible to perfectly acceptable. Were not going to get folds all that often but the 10% of the time they fold combined with the times we stack one of them due to us inflating this pot on the turn should make this bet a good one.

I like what deco says here a lot. I think a bet on the turn can buy us some outs. It's possible that someone can fold a weak Q (Qxs nonsense, which is in the SB's range, I think) to a second barrel or maybe something that's floating, like AJ.

The only problem I see is we REALLY would hate to get check-raise/shoved on in this spot.

As played, both players check. I bet $50 into $112. The SB has about $110 behind and limper has $250 and I have $175. Both call, weirdness. In relation to the pot it's a weak bet but with stack sizes and the flow of the game, $50 is a big turn bet.


Results of hand:

River: 9d

Cha-ching! nuts have arriveth. Both check, I bet $60 into $262, SB folds, lol, trappy limper puts me all-in and I obviously called, he flips over 96o for a slowplayed gutshot that came in on the turn.

I was going to respond with betting 50 and then read your post lol. 50 is a HUGE turn bet, ususally AA, KK, AQ, AcKc...them both flatting 50 is crazy, which then makes me think the 9c is the only club we can see, and it looks like the only card we can catch is a 9, and BINK. That's what he gets for trapping with the nuts on the turn and you get the miracle 3 outter.