$200 NLHE Full Ring: live casino $1/3, QQ facing 3 bet and 5 behind. Shove/fold?

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glemly

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warning: this is a very in-depth post and I only recommend you read it if you know a thing or two about probability. This was a hand I experienced last night at my local casino. I want answers to focus around the math I have presented to see if there are holes in it anywhere (or my assumptions for the math), as my gut still says this is a fold, but the math says otherwise.

Important information to note: x4-x5 bb has been the standard pre flop raise at the table all night (which sucked btw). See the attachment for a visual of the hand. players 1. and 2. had me covered, player 3 had ~$190 before the hand. Player 1 is tight, passive. I would assign his PFR ~ 5. player 2 is a regular, and is loose, fishy, but his 3 bet range in early position is all but JJ+ (maybe AKs, but we are discounting this for argument's sake). Player 3 is LAG, and has been known to cold call large raises with marginal hands. My image at the table over 3 hours was tight. If I shove they will give me cred for a premium hand.

Looking at the attachment, you will take note that there is already $99 in the pot once it is my turn to act. There are 5 players behind me yet to act, and player 1 might re-raise. For these reasons, I decide I will either shove or fold. I know player 2 fairly well, and know he will not call my shove with anything but KK or AA, and I am confident that is true for player 1 as well. Player 3 is much more likely to call me with a worse pocket pair.

If we assume player 1 and 2 (as well as the people yet to act) will fold anything worse than AA or KK, and will call otherwise (reasonable assumptions might I add), then the probability that anyone of the 5 players behind me yet to act were dealt KK or AA is (2/221)*5, or 4.5%. The probability that player 1, with a PFR of 5%, raised with KK or AA is 13.1% (8 combinations for Aces and Kings, 17 combinations for 88-QQ, and 36 combinations for AJs, AQo, AKo, thus 8/61 = .131). Finally, the probability that player 2 3-bet with AA or KK is 61.5%(8/13 combinations).

Each of these probabilities are independent of each other, thus, the probability that neither the 5 people behind me were dealt KK/AA, player 1 didn't raise with AA/KK, and player 2 didn't 3bet with AA/KK is as follows:

(1-.615)*(1-.131)*(1-.045) = .32, or 32% chance I will take down the pot uncontested.

Thus, .32($330) + .68(.18($560) + .81($-230)) = $105.6 + .68($-85.5) = +$47.46.

The above equation explained: a 32% i will take down the pot uncontested and win $330. Add that to a 68% chance that I don't - now I am a 4.5:1 dog against KK or AA, but I can still suck out, and do, 18% of the time, and take down $560. The other 81% of the time I lose my $230 stack. Yet, if I did everything correctly, This still seems to be a +EV play.


thoughts, comments, questions? I would appreciate input if possible.
 

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J

JKo2theQQ

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this is a very tough spot. Your math seems to be ok. Are you also considering the times that you get called by player 3 with a worse hand and he Sucks out? Or the ( very unlikely ) nightmare scenario where you wind up with QQ vs QQ vs AA/KK? These scenarios are unlikely enough that it wouldn't make it -EV but it would lower it. Personally, I am a slightly passive player (probably a bit more than I should be). However, it would be hard to lay down here. Although I'm not sure that I like moving all in with so much action in front and so many players behind either. I REALLY don't like it, but I think we have to move in. With your description of utg and utg+1, we are likely to only get action from QQ+ and AK, but there is enough in the pot already to take our shot. Push and pray.
 
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glemly

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JKo, thanks for the response.

You are right, I should have considered player 3 going ahead and calling/sucking out, although at the time I was thinking about my move I was confident if it was folded around to him he would fold, but what actually happened was when I shoved, player 1 called quickly, as well as player 2, then player 3 sat there for like 30 seconds and said aloud that he "had" to call because he was committed/had the odds. This told me he had a marginal pocket pair and he knew he was against at least 1 over pair, meaning he would need a bare minimum of 7.5:1 pot odds to warrant a call.

The pot, once it came his turn to act was ~$734, and he had about ~$150 behind, so he was incorrect in his assumption, but close.

The problem is that I don't know how to assign a probability percent to the likelihood that he would call my all-in given player 1 and 2 fold. This guy was one of the better players at the table, and my previous statement tells me he is thinking about pot odds, etc.

Meaning, if I shoved and player 1 and 2 folded, he would be left with a $150 call into a $329 pot. I think he is folding any medium pocket pair, but then again I could definitely see him calling AK in this situation, which would be in his cold calling range. I just don't know how to assign a number that is anywhere accurate to his likelihood of calling/sucking out.
 
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Marginal

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I will post more when home and not on phone but your logic is a bit flawed.

Can you tell me how he 99$ got into the pot or who raised and 3 bet etc
 
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Marginal

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Right so a couple of things

If you say someones PFR overall is 5%, his UTG preflop raise would be less than 5%.

Secondly, if player 1 is tight, player 2s' utg 1 3 bet is also going to be tighter and why are we discounting AK?

Also your QQ, you have given yourself 18% while the graphic shows 16.5% plus you gave yourself 2 live suits when in some spots you don't and your % drops below 16.

I could make very broad assumptions and get you to be a - ev spot.

Poker isn't this statistically especially in a live game where you don't have millions of hands on people. Information is way more incomplete and I have a hard time with your assumptions. Such as, if player 2 is loose fishy, why is it cut off at JJ, how much hands do you have on these people to make these assumptions.

The only way this works is if you can 100% these people do this 100% of the time and in that case move your 18% to 16.5% and consider the 4.5% chance those other 5 guys have AA/KK.
 
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glemly

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Marginal, you bring up some good points, and I will try to answer all of them.

In terms of UTG raising, yes, theoretically you should have a stronger holding, but I have found that at these stakes many players tend to discount positioning a lot more than they should. From 3 hours of play with this guy, I have labeled him as tight, passive, which to me means he is not a shark (if you aren't a TAG or LAG you aren't playing properly IMO). Because of this, and the fact that the standard raise all night had been $12-15, I wasn't giving him any extra cred just because he was UTG (this could very well be a poor assumption). He would have made the same raise with the same hand in any other position most likely, and his PFR is so low, that any hands in the 5% PFR range are worthy of raising, even UTG.

Player 2 is someone I have played multiple times with, and by loose, fishy, I meant his VPIP. His PFR (and 3bet) range are much different though. He is only 3-betting here with premium hands - I discounted AK for 2 reasons. Based off of past experiences with him, I think he is a lot less likely to 3-bet AK than JJ+ (he pretty much only 3-bets pocket pairs). The second reason I discounted AK was because that would add a lot of combos of hands to his range that would increase my overall EV, and the fact that he is unlikely to do this with AK (but likely with JJ) means I didn't want to skew the EV in my favor (if anything, I would want to be on the cautious side and assume he wouldn't 3-bet AK, which is how I proceeded).

Something that also should be mentioned is that this table loved calling raises just to see flops. It would make a lot of sense to me if player 2 (also knowing this information) 3-bet with JJ, not wanting to have 5+ people on the flop when he had a hand like that. Isolating with a 3-bet, based on this tables past history is by far the best move, and I would give him cred to make that play.

Lastly, the graphic shows the ultimate worst-case scenerio (which is basically what happened lol) where everyone calls me and I am crushed. My calculations with 18% are based off if one person calls me (18% to win against overpair). The way I saw it was if one person calls me I'm screwed, and if 2 or more happen to call me as well, I still have about the same chance to win (that is where the 1.5% difference comes in, because in actuality all 3 called). The times that more than 1 person calls me with an overpair are so rare that the extra 1.5% difference seemed rather trivial.


- and the 4.5% chance the 5 people behind me were dealt AA/KK is factored into the equation.
 
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JKo2theQQ

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I don't really think there is any way to get a very accurate assessment on the likely hood of him sucking out. It really depends on your perception of players 1 and 2. Obviously if both 1 and 2 call, player 3 will be getting really good odds and that obviously lowers his calling range and thus makes him more likely to call with a hand you have beat. So if both 1 and 2 call he is more likely to suck out and if they fold, he is less likely to suck out. Personally, I think you approached it right by focusing more on players 1 and 2 since their actions will heavily influence player 3's decisions. Math is beautiful and you probably could put a number on it........but who has an hour to figure that out at the table. lol.

PS. I liked the detailed question you posted. Most posts are just someone posting a hand and saying....Did I play this right?
Good Luck.
 
ghOst

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warning: this is a very in-depth post and I only recommend you read it if you know a thing or two about probability. This was a hand I experienced last night at my local casino. I want answers to focus around the math I have presented to see if there are holes in it anywhere (or my assumptions for the math), as my gut still says this is a fold, but the math says otherwise.

Important information to note: x4-x5 bb has been the standard pre flop raise at the table all night (which sucked btw). See the attachment for a visual of the hand. players 1. and 2. had me covered, player 3 had ~$190 before the hand. Player 1 is tight, passive. I would assign his PFR ~ 5. player 2 is a regular, and is loose, fishy, but his 3 bet range in early position is all but JJ+ (maybe AKs, but we are discounting this for argument's sake). Player 3 is LAG, and has been known to cold call large raises with marginal hands. My image at the table over 3 hours was tight. If I shove they will give me cred for a premium hand.

Looking at the attachment, you will take note that there is already $99 in the pot once it is my turn to act. There are 5 players behind me yet to act, and player 1 might re-raise. For these reasons, I decide I will either shove or fold. I know player 2 fairly well, and know he will not call my shove with anything but KK or AA, and I am confident that is true for player 1 as well. Player 3 is much more likely to call me with a worse pocket pair.

If we assume player 1 and 2 (as well as the people yet to act) will fold anything worse than AA or KK, and will call otherwise (reasonable assumptions might I add), then the probability that anyone of the 5 players behind me yet to act were dealt KK or AA is (2/221)*5, or 4.5%. The probability that player 1, with a PFR of 5%, raised with KK or AA is 13.1% (8 combinations for Aces and Kings, 17 combinations for 88-QQ, and 36 combinations for AJs, AQo, AKo, thus 8/61 = .131). Finally, the probability that player 2 3-bet with AA or KK is 61.5%(8/13 combinations).

Each of these probabilities are independent of each other, thus, the probability that neither the 5 people behind me were dealt KK/AA, player 1 didn't raise with AA/KK, and player 2 didn't 3bet with AA/KK is as follows:

(1-.615)*(1-.131)*(1-.045) = .32, or 32% chance I will take down the pot uncontested.

Thus, .32($330) + .68(.18($560) + .81($-230)) = $105.6 + .68($-85.5) = +$47.46.

The above equation explained: a 32% i will take down the pot uncontested and win $330. Add that to a 68% chance that I don't - now I am a 4.5:1 dog against KK or AA, but I can still suck out, and do, 18% of the time, and take down $560. The other 81% of the time I lose my $230 stack. Yet, if I did everything correctly, This still seems to be a +EV play.


thoughts, comments, questions? I would appreciate input if possible.

I think a reraise to test where you are placed. A lot of times KK and AA would easily just put it in in situations like this after 3 betting has already been in place....your 4bet would just look like a challenge but you're more thinking about where you stand. I also don't think folding QQ from a 3bet is logical either when the action was called by the guy before you. 4bet and I'm 100% KK would shove after your 4bet and this would've been an easy fold for you.
 
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AggressivelyHonest

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First of all, I agree with Marginal that I can tweak your assumptions and quickly make this a -EV play.

More importantly, I don't see why the math matters (and I have a Masters in Applied Stats). You can't possibly do this calculation at the table, so who cares what the actual EV is? The number of times that you will see this situation in your life is small enough that knowing the actual EV of this spot --- and that's assuming that you can correctly calculate it given all the unknowns --- isn't likely to benefit you going forward.

In the end, you throw the math out the window and go with your gut. I agree with you that it's an easy shove or fold spot. Which action I take is going to be based on my history with my opponents. Based on what you've said, I probably fold here.
 
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