$200 NLHE Full Ring: LIVE - 89 suited flop top pair against huge over-raise

pitter22

pitter22

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: LIVE - 89 suited flop top pair against huge over-raise

This is a live cash game at my local casino. My opponent has just lost a bunch of chips from just plain bad play, but the player has been very tight and has shown down big hands. Here is my dilemma.....

MP raises $8 to $10 (standard raise for table)
CO + BTN call
I look down at 8h9h in the SB. I call.
BB calls.

flop comes 449 (suits irrelevent) I love throwing out probe bets after the flop when im first to act. I learn where im at and I can represent several hands, not in this example.

I bet $5
BB folds
MP raises all-in (has me covered, i have ~$130 at this point)
CO + BTN fold
ME???????????????????

Here is where i go into the tank. It took me forever to make my final decision. Would this player shove with an overpair? I know he has two big cards but is it AK-AQ or 1010-AA....

What do you think knowledgable CCers :)
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Probe bets are retarded. I would say more, but I'm too tired to be sure of anything else.
 
pitter22

pitter22

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why? do i check and let BB hit a Q with Q10 and then waste of a half decent hand where we can make some money. IMO a $5 probe bet gets more respect than a $10 raise pf. I'd love to hear your side about the hand and about probe bets.
 
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Mamushi

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I looked at this for awhile and only came up with a question. Is he the kind of player who shoves with the nuts praying for a caller, or is he the kind of player that with the nuts realizes that nobody will call a shove here?

I don't think he has the set, but i don't see A9 doing this either really. It is hard to put him on a range of hands without more information.
 
pitter22

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I cant really tell you much more about him other than he plays high cards. A9 would be out of his range. but possibly a variation? we can put A9 into the category of overpair. This table was full of trappy players but i saw this player bet for value all the way down. not with the nuts or a monster but a hand like top pair top kicker i believe
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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why? do i check and let BB hit a Q with Q10 and then waste of a half decent hand where we can make some money. IMO a $5 probe bet gets more respect than a $10 raise pf. I'd love to hear your side about the hand and about probe bets.
You do realize that betting $5 into a $124234324 pot gives everyone odds to draw to whatever the hell, right? Also, if it was supposed to give you information on where you stand, why the hell are you posting this? Probe bets don't tell you where you stand, because they're almost always some stupid crap like exactly the hand you have. So people bluff-raise them all the time.

I'd much prefer any other line you could take. Check/calling, check/raising, and bet 80% pot/folding are all better lines than gay-betting the flop.
 
WVHillbilly

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Fold preflop.

You have a suited connector with a smallish stack relative to the pot (SPR will be <5 if you call) and you're in the worst position possible.

Also agree with C9, betting $5 into a $30 pot and 2 opponents is ungood.
 
-Phil Ivey27

-Phil Ivey27

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I agree with both WV and C9 in that the probe bet here is weak and bad.

If i saw this kind of bet I myself would probably give you a re-raise knowing that you check with a 4 and you only make this kind of bet with a mid-kicker 9 or a pocket pair like 77/88.

This player might have had the same thinking process and that's why he made that bet, but I most likely put him on an over pair.
 
pitter22

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So.... i posted this in HA for a reason. Ivey is the only one who really has said anything about what I should do at this point. Only saying probe bets are retarded and i should have folded pre-flop.

Anyways, to defend my probe bet theory on this flop. The board is the dryest of boards. no flush or straight draws possible. The bet knocks out all hands except for maybe two overs, pairs, 9's or 4's. If i check this flop i can almost guarantee it checks around for a turn card which then just about kills all hope for my hand. Even if i get 2 callers on this flop i dont mind and can just re-assess on the turn. If i get raised, I can go through ranges for the certain player. And thats what I'm trying to do with your guys' help, but ignorance towards me on a move which has gotten me away from alot of hands and actually won me a lot of hands.

So im wondering... what percentage do you guys/gals think he has overpair or AK/AQ respectively. personally im thinking 25% overpair and 75% two overs. I just dont believe he would shove with an overpair. a bet for value to extract chips would indicate overpair to me.
 
vanquish

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So im wondering... what percentage do you guys/gals think he has overpair or AK/AQ respectively. personally im thinking 25% overpair and 75% two overs. I just dont believe he would shove with an overpair. a bet for value to extract chips would indicate overpair to me.

this is a silly way to look at the hand imo. we weren't there, so the read was yours to make, but trying to put a percentage weight on the times that your hand is best vs the times he has a monster by picking arbitrary numbers such as 75%/25% is not a good way to approach your decision. you're going to be leveling yourself too often (ex: well i have top pair, why don't i just say that he has overcards 75% of the time, that way i can justify calling his overbet shove?), and talking yourself into the wrong decision.

assign your villain a range, decide how often he's bluffraising your bet, and decide how your hand plays against his range, given that he may be tilting, given live tells, etc, then make your decision.

i see myself folding here always because i'm pretty nitty with hands that can barely improve when i'm getting raised @ a live game. *edit: and the range i assign villain here is something like {overpairs, 9x, 4x, and several combos of AKs, AKo, AQs with backdoors), and i don't like 98 on a 944r against that range
 
WVHillbilly

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In HA we analyze how you play the hand (crazy huh) and you played this one about as bad as possible up to this point, imo.

I personally love overbet shoving hands like AA/KK in this spot because bad players always want to put me on AK and they call with the exact hand their small donk bet is representing.

Are you ever making this same bet with 99 or A4???
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Ivey is the only one who really has said anything about what I should do at this point.
Maybe its possible that the last decision isn't the one in the hand that mattered? Maybe we could play the hand in such a way where we don't put ourselves in such tough spots?

Or do you just want to brag and tell everyone how villain had KQ here? Your hand analysis posts seem to follow a similar trend. People give you advice, tell you how you could've played the hand better, and you ignore that advice.
 
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