$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live 1/2 Good bluff or spewy wishful thinking?

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c0rnBr34d

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Maybe 2.5 hours into my session. Table is pretty loose passive in general but there are some variations.

Hero - $500 Not sure how table views hero as we have been raising large over limpers and 3 betting more than anyone else (still only maybe 4 times). Not limping much at all, and not calling pre much. Would estimate Hero is 20/15/3 ish. Using aggressive sizing though so they may equate aggression to being loose sometimes.

V1 - $600 Is younger guy in a sports football hoodie. He has made some comments about the bad play at the table and seems to have a clue. Seated directly to Hero's left. Estimated about 40/10/0 stats. Has been running good, hitting some huge turns and rivers.

V2 - $150 Is also younger guy estimated 25/5/0.

OTTH: 3 limps to Hero in CO, we raise to $20 with :ks4::qc4:, V1 BU calls, V2 BB calls.

Flop: (~$60 after rake) :ad4::js4::3c4:
V2 checks, Hero $35 we should have a lot of strong Aces here and there are no real straight or flush draws so we should be able to take this down against smaller pocket pairs, Jx, and maybe a scared Ace. V1 calls, V2 calls. Whoops. Contemplating shutting it down here and hoping to hit the gut shot but also noticed neither V seemed too happy about the call and didn't seem to consider raising. Ruling out AJ, from convo I expect V1 to 3 bet AK pre. Not sure about V2.

Turn: ($165) :ad4::js4::3c4::6d4:
V2 checks, Hero decides to put Vs to the test. As the PFR we have AK, AQ, AJ here a lot, even JJ some. Gut feel is that V1 has A9s, AT, maybe a cautious AQ. V2 seems even weaker (capped closing the action right? and seems tentative) but we will range him similarly with some TT, 99 mixed in perhaps. We bet $100. Sizing? I think given table dynamic we can get away with this smaller sizing some but in general I think turn should be more polarized 115+ feels better in retrospect but I doubt these guys are sensitive to these types of sizing differences so we probably get the same result. On the bright side, if we get called and hit the T we have set up reasonable river jam. What do we expect Vs to be able to continue with? This bet puts V2 all in if he opts to call.

Good bluff? Too ambitious?
 
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c0rnBr34d

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I can no longer edit the original post but someone noted that the card graphics aren't showing up correctly and they couldn't read the board. To be clear here are all the graphics:
Hero: KsQc
Flop: AdJs3c
Turn: 6d
 
LevySystem

LevySystem

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Ahh there we go :)

C-bet Flop is standart, but i dont like to bluff the turn vs 2 players. Our range is the strongest but we certanly open more from the CO than Ax and broadways. I would Bluff if we pick up equity, and the d on the turn kills one of our outs so we draw to 3 outs really if we keep (reverse) implied odds in mind.

So if you feel people are capable of folding Ax if we fire turn go for it, but COvsBB i wouldnt bet on it.
 
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c0rnBr34d

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Ahh there we go :)

C-bet Flop is standart, but i dont like to bluff the turn vs 2 players. Our range is the strongest but we certanly open more from the CO than Ax and broadways. I would Bluff if we pick up equity, and the d on the turn kills one of our outs so we draw to 3 outs really if we keep (reverse) implied odds in mind.

So if you feel people are capable of folding Ax if we fire turn go for it, but COvsBB i wouldnt bet on it.
Thanks. Yea, I agree in general about bluffing into two players. Tried to pick a spot here. Since our PFR is relatively low maybe even 12 ish, hard to estimate live. I didn't think Vs would correctly widen my range based on position (otherwise they would be 3 betting late position raises more but almost no one is). I also hadn't shown down any bluffs or less than top pair strong kicker in large pots. This was also a pretty rare double barrel at this size. Maybe this is a leak but after a couple of hours I felt Vs were under 3 betting and over folding to aggression so I tried to exploit. Still might be too thin here but that was my thought process. Also I wasn't worried too much about the flush given the 10x open pre and two flat calls. After calling the cbet I would only expect 3 combos of flushes to be possible if we hit the Td on the river. That would be KQd, KJd, QJd. And I think we even get some folds from QJ and KJ here with this sizing pre. I can definitely see KQdd but don't want to worry too much about one to three combos when we could also be facing A9+, if AT rivers two pair we get the stack, if A9+ cant stand the heat and fold we get a nice pot. After V2 checks twice I doubt he's willing to stack off on the turn but anything is possible.
 
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gustav197poker

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In the flop with your connectors and the c bet, you are protecting a middle hand most of the time. And after the call of V2, the possibility of including a hand of value in its range increases.
Your intention is good if you wanted to isolate yourself with V1 (given its characteristics, we assume that it plays with a wider range) and achieve a high fold equity for Villain 2, but this may be more effective with a larger bet size C.
I would try a 75% barrel of the boat. If I find a V2 call, I will probably place it on an 8-8 + line; Ax. And as for V1 the readings are closer to Jx; T-T; 9-9; etc.
In this case we reach the turn with both villains and now a door for the color of diamonds opens. Now we add in the range of V1 combinations of gutshot + flush draw that we do not block. Maybe now we can include in the V2 range Jd-xd combos that again fully impact our range.
Now our range contains many bluffs that don't block villains (we have 18 bluff combos in total with K-T Q-T) and our hand can only improve with 3 outs to complete our gutshot. So this is a place, where most of the time they will call us and mostly when that happens, we will be dominated by medium and high value hands.
I would lean for a check on the turn and hope to evaluate on the river.
Regards.
 
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LevySystem

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Yeah suited J, thats what i thought also, i might include JTs, but thats only 1 combo anyway. As you discribe V1 he should be pretty wide also maybe lots of SC? But i guess the 40Vpip comes from the limping with the other players...

Question is are you willing to rip it in on the river vs a turncall? I almost feel we have to given the amout we invested allready. Live is pretty soft from what ive heard, but from my experience in micros online i tend to underbluff. People are just not capable of folding TP.
Given the dynamics you discribe i totally understand youre thoughtprocess. But V2 is suposed to check twice, hes playing oop without initiative, or do people donk when they have it? I mean thats super faceup then.
 
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quant1986

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Just give up on the turn. I would assume most 1/2 players are calling stations and love to play Ax rag unless shown otherwise.

If only V1 calls the flop bet, maybe good to triple barrel IF he is capable of folding Ax.
 
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c0rnBr34d

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I would lean for a check on the turn and hope to evaluate on the river.
Regards.
You are probably right. I think I get all of the Jx to fold on the turn though. So if called I'm only against Ax and a couple of flush draw combos. Once the pot is that large I have good implied odds if I hit my straight. Other than that I'm definitely giving up.
i might include JTs, but thats only 1 combo anyway. As you discribe V1 he should be pretty wide also maybe lots of SC? But i guess the 40Vpip comes from the limping with the other players...

Question is are you willing to rip it in on the river vs a turncall? I almost feel we have to given the amout we invested allready. Live is pretty soft from what ive heard, but from my experience in micros online i tend to underbluff. People are just not capable of folding TP.
Given the dynamics you discribe i totally understand youre thoughtprocess. But V2 is suposed to check twice, hes playing oop without initiative, or do people donk when they have it? I mean thats super faceup then.
Great points, we are on the same page. First, if we hit the Td then V can't have JTdd so that combo isn't possible. If we hit the off suit T then we have the nuts so we are good. Yea V1s biggest leak was over limping pre. He was calling with a more solid range, and wasn't looking up c-bets with air, especially against the better players at the table. To answer the question, I probably don't rip it in on a brick river if he finds the turn call. Maybe if he really struggles with the turn call and goes deep in the tank I can rip but otherwise I mostly give up. I agree V2 is supposed to check his strong hands there to keep us firing wide but he just isn't that good. He's donking top pairs on the flop at some frequency and is probably afraid of it checking around when diamonds hit the turn and donks there a lot with two pair plus. Could be trying too much to read his flop call but they both seemed hesitant to continue.
Just give up on the turn. I would assume most 1/2 players are calling stations and love to play Ax rag unless shown otherwise.

If only V1 calls the flop bet, maybe good to triple barrel IF he is capable of folding Ax.
Fair enough. And was definitely true to a large extent. What I found over the course of the 2.5 hours though is that as the pot / bets got larger the fold button began to materialize lol.

Thanks. So far it sounds like this hand was mostly spew but I'll wait for a few more responses.
 
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gustav197poker

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If the villain is a solid regular and we assign him Jx in his range (being x: 9; 8; 7; etc), he knows that he does not block your main bluffs (QK; KT; QT) so the call becomes a movement standard in this case. Also, when another street of diamonds appears on the turn, there is still a possibility of turning his hand into a semibluff on the river, if that line is completed.
The J-T knows that it is dominated by the top pair, but also knows that it is ahead of many bluffs. Also when opening a door for the color of diamonds, you can consider the call as a flip situation.
The Ax suffer very much the calls in the turn, since they tend to think that they are behind a better kicker. But they may also think that there are only 3 possible combos of dangerous AX (AK; AQ; AJ) and the rest are combinations of second top pair + gutshots + flush draw.
In all situations of this hand, villains can find a reason to commit to the boat and make the call.
Your strategy is very good for a villain that we assign in his Ax range (being x = T)
Because in this case the reverse situation happens. Now the villain knows that he blocks all your bluffs (Q-K; K-T; Q-T) and if he makes a call, he is isolating himself with the upper range, which in this case includes sets and TPTK combinations. So placing a bet on the turn has a lot of fold equity against this weak range. (But this strategy is only possible for 3 AT combos)
 
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LevySystem

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If the villain is a solid regular and we assign him Jx in his range (being x: 9; 8; 7; etc), he knows that he does not block your main bluffs (QK; KT; QT) so the call becomes a movement standard in this case.

First of I guess youre talking about V2 in this case, wich would be BB, V1 is the 40 vpip guy on the BU, wich is not a reg. Or a drunk one at best :D

In this case I disagree. A solid reg would not coldcall a 10x open OOP vs 2 players, with hands like J9s-Jxs. Given it is 200nl i also doubt the the regulars at that limit think much in terms of blockers, we are not talking highstakes cashgame here. V2 is discribed as 25/5/0, so i doubt hes a good reg. Maybe one of the better players at the table, but certanly noone that crushes. Most people will be level 1 thinkers, and at most level 2.

See this:
I agree V2 is supposed to check his strong hands there to keep us firing wide but he just isn't that good. He's donking top pairs on the flop at some frequency and is probably afraid of it checking around when diamonds hit the turn and donks there a lot with two pair plus. Could be trying too much to read his flop call but they both seemed hesitant to continue.

_________________________________________________

Also, when another street of diamonds appears on the turn, there is still a possibility of turning his hand into a semibluff on the river, if that line is completed.

Unblocking the Flush ourself id not recomend bluffing there IF the Flush completes, but when it actually not completes,

The J-T knows that it is dominated by the top pair, but also knows that it is ahead of many bluffs. Also when opening a door for the color of diamonds, you can consider the call as a flip situation.
The Ax suffer very much the calls in the turn, since they tend to think that they are behind a better kicker. But they may also think that there are only 3 possible combos of dangerous AX (AK; AQ; AJ) and the rest are combinations of second top pair + gutshots + flush draw.

Hero still hast Toprange of AA (3 combos), JJ(3), AJ (7). Plus all the weaker Ax you mentioned.


Hands Combos



As stated above this only Applies if we recon Villain is capable of folding his Ax. A good bluff depends on the Villain. And i wouldnt

bet that the people at youre local Cardroom are able to do so, at 200nl live most certanly arent.​
 
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