€200 NLHE Full Ring: Live 1/2 88 UTG+2

Hi there,

Local barcelona casino. 2am. Mostly regulars at the table. I had a little wild image after value beating in bwar a in the river. That hand went like this. I posted a dead blind in the CO to create a little of a fish image and it folded to me. I raised 3 bb. The BB called. The flop came Axx and I checked behind. The BB lead the turn when a K came and I called. He checked the river when a blank came and I thought he could very likely have played a K this way so I valuebetted my K like 35% of the pot (14e) and he called with AJ.

But well, the hand I wanted you to discuss is the following: a seemingly pretty good player, young, raises UTG 4bb and I flat with 88 in UTG+2. Everybody folds. The flop comes 343r. He checks, and I bet like half pot for protection and value from 55-77 and AK/AQ as he is suspicious of these types of boards and would think I have Ax a lot of the time and I am floating or I have ans amall pair and cant sustain a lot of heat. He calls. The flop comes a K. I check behind as I see no point in turning my hand into a bluff. But maybe I should have? He would probably check the river and I don't think he has the guts to c/r the turn with AQ. The river comes another overcard, an awful J not completing anything and he leads for 2/3 pot. Should I fold? At the mooment I thought that I was behind his value bet range and that frankly I couldnt thing a hand apart from ace high that didnt beat me except AQ. He should c/c the river if he has something like TT/JJ and let me bluff right? Well I dunno... Any thoughts would be appreciated

I would prefer betting the turn rather than calling the river

Ok, why?

Utg:?
Utg+1:?
MP1(hero):?
MP2:?
MP3:?
CO:?
Btn:?
Sb:?
Bb:?

Hero is dealt:88

Preflop:

Utg raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, 6 folds.

Flop($18): 3s 4d 3c

Utg checks, Hero bets $9, utg calls $9

Turn($36): Kh

Utg checks, hero checks

River($36): Jc
Utg bets $24, hero????

I like the line actually. I probably fold river. Most people don't bluff rivers. Also bet more on the flop

bet the turn obv.

Why bet the turn? His low pairs aren't continuing, his over cards that don't have a king fold, he's not folding better hands either

We bet the turn for the same reasons we bet the flop, except now we have even more reasons to bet. Also because we always bet this turn, and this is probably one of the better hands to do it with.


In addition I'll give you even more reasons to not check the turn:
1. Whenever you want to pot control the turn, you should probably merge, especially in live games.
2. You will profit by eliminating "one-and-done" and just double-barrel because the road to hell is paved with one-and-dones.
3. When you check back the turn, especially this turn, it becomes a lot easier to float against you, even OOP. Don't make it easy to float you.

If your plan preflop was some sort of vague combo of "set-mine/bluffcatch," then don't bet the flop.

What are the other reasons to bet that we gained by a K on the turn?

The pot is bigger, he'll fold bigger equity shares, it keeps our range stronger/uncapped.

I don't see what he's continuing with that we beat or what better hands fold.

99-QQ, 65, A2, A5

also he'll fold his hands that have 13% equity like AJ/AQ/AT

also don't worry about what hands call.

What seemingly good player opens a2/a5/65 utg? What seemingly good player c/cs 99-QQ and not bet the flop?

A good player probably doesn't c/c anything on this board.

Why did you bet the flop and what are your reasons for checking the turn?

Assign him a range, figure out what hands he calls with and then checks turn with.

Figure out how much you win when he folds and how much you win when he calls. Then compare it to how often you win when it checks through. Even if you assume that if you check back the turn he never bluffs the river and you'll be able to show down with the best hand when you're ahead (which is probably not true), your expected value is far better in betting the turn than checking it. If you're checking back the turn here then betting the flop is total spew.

You bet the flop to hopefully get value from 55-77 and random over cards that call. I want to check turn because I don't think any of those hands continue except some of the overs that hit the K

baudib1 said:

A good player probably doesn't c/c anything on this board.

Why did you bet the flop and what are your reasons for checking the turn?

Assign him a range, figure out what hands he calls with and then checks turn with.

Figure out how much you win when he folds and how much you win when he calls. Then compare it to how often you win when it checks through. Even if you assume that if you check back the turn he never bluffs the river and you'll be able to show down with the best hand when you're ahead (which is probably not true), your expected value is far better in betting the turn than checking it. If you're checking back the turn here then betting the flop is total spew.

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I can see some players c/c Ax here sometimes

also fire for value as this is a good barrell bluff card, i dont see him folding again to ~half pot and you dont fancy gay river bets like this where your playing guessing games without the initiative which makes your life easier

Fire for value because it's a good bluff card? Wat?

bgomez89 said:

Fire for value because it's a good bluff card? Wat?

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uhh

vanquish said:

uhh

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hehe!

its a good card to double barrell bluff (so you should be firing with air here) therefore if hes good as OP says he will call wider therefore when you have a hand you should be firing wider for value to ballance

it's actually totally ok to win the pot.
if you could see his cards and saw he had 55 and he's folding to any real bet, it's still correct to bet.

Jurn8 said:

hehe!

its a good card to double barrell bluff (so you should be firing with air here) therefore if hes good as OP says he will call wider therefore when you have a hand you should be firing wider for value to ballance

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Oh ok

bg:
There's a thread on another forum where a guy who is great on theory says something that I've been trying to articulate around here with very little luck.

I also think that players would benefit a lot from not creating a binary between "bluff" and "value bet". They're two parts of a single range, and they should not be analyzed apart from one another. But that's just my opinion. I find it helps me to put hand analysis, theory and emotions into perspective. After all, the equation for a value bet and semi-bluff are only different in that one has more than 50% equity while the other doesn't. It's like measuring time and space separate from one another.

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If you are obsessed with defining bets as "value" or "bluff" then you will just be totally confused and major leaks occur when you default to check or pot control because you're not sure which one you're doing. If you took it to its logical conclusion you would not c-bet A-high on raggy boards as the PFR when you know damn well that cbetting XX% (probably around 60%-80%) is going to be profitable.

same as balugas 2 way bet imo

Can you link me to threads like that? This concept already makes me want to barf

It's on 2+2 Ronin Talken's well. Why do you want to barf?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/1k-posts-my-well-1141296/