$200 NLHE Full Ring: KK on 4Q33 board, 3 to a flush

$200 NL HE Full Ring: KK on 4Q33 board, 3 to a flush

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/6/2.6

Villain only folds to cbets 30% and raises cbets 27% over enough hands for this to be significant.

Preflop and flop are standard, i guess. What is our line on the turn when the flush draw hits and the board pairs? Do we bet/call, bet/fold, check/call, check/fold or CRAI ?


full tilt poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $108.80
MP1: $43.00
Hero (MP2): $292.00
CO: $215.00
BTN: $107.70
SB: $145.60
BB: $31.00
UTG: $37.00
UTG+1: $404.80

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP2 with K :club: K :diamond:
4 folds, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BTN calls $7, SB calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($23.00) 4 :spade: Q :spade: 3 :heart: (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, BTN calls $16, SB folds

Turn: ($55.00) 3 :spade: (2 players)
Hero ???

Since he's only 50BBs deep, I'm bet/calling, and I'm betting close to pot. If he's as aggressive on the flop as you indicate flushdraws may be discounted a bit from his range. I'm not a fan of checking since he'll often call with worse (any queen and probably a bunch of PPs with a spade in them), and I can't see myself bet/folding since he may well raise the turn with worse thinking that he's "protecting" against a flushdraw (e.g. QJ or AQ or such).

So yeah, bet for value and make it big since he'll call with a lot of weaker hands. If he shoves, I can't find a fold anywhere.

I can't find a fold given his stack size. Checking doesnt seem good bc he'll call with a lot of queens that might check behind the turn, and also might check behind some medium spades which can flush the river.

I'd probably bet a smallish amount on the turn thatd make it seem like Im not committed should he shove. This would allow him to shove over the top thinking he has some fold equity. If he flats and the river spades I curse the poker gods.

I dislike a larger bet bc I think it folds out a lot of the hands that we want calling here namely medium large queens, although i guess we might get value out of QxXs if X is pretty high, or if villain calls too much then Id just bet big also. I see his fold to CB is very low but his turn fold % is more important in this spot IMO. On a related note, I bet a little more on the flop against a villain with such a low fold to CB % with made hands to extract additional value

I'm not so sure it's better to bet smaller on the turn. Given the stacksizes we'll almost be committed on any river if he calls. Sure, we'll hate a spade river, but I'm not convinced we can fold to a $50 all-in on a spade river getting 3.5:1 (or whatever it would be if we bet $30 on the turn instead of $48). Especially not given the fact that we have to CHECK to him on a spade river.

Framed differently, he'd be playing perfectly if he called a $30 bet with 9s9h.

Also, what kind of hands do we expect him to have? I find it difficult to come up with very much of a range that we want him to continue with for $30 that would fold for $50. Is he really going to fold QT to a larger bet? I just sort of assumed that he had a high WTSD but perhaps I'm wrong about that.

Well, I don't have enough hands to make the fold to turn cbet% relevant.

He's not a calling station, though. His WTSD% is only 23%.

I do agree the flop cbet could be a bit larger given villain's tendency to refuse folding on the flop.

And I'm not sure which of your arguments i prefer in terms of turn bet sizing. I'm not even sure checking to induce isn't better, tbh. Fwiw, in the heat of the action, i went for a $32 bet planning to call a shove.