$200 NLHE Full Ring: Kings full, unsure on the river

TenJack

TenJack

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Villain is TAG, doesn't ever do anything really crazy, likes to switch it up occasionally, have seen him slowplay and fastplay his monsters. He makes large raises from Early position to thin fields out with good hands. 500bb stack

Hero is playing loose, around 350bb stack.

Villain opens to 10 from UTG.
Folds to mp, 2 limpers,
Hero raises to 35 with Kh Ks
Villain 4-bets to 100
limpers fold,
hero calls.

Flop: Ac Ad Kc Pot:200

Villain continues for 75
Hero flats

Turn Jc pot: 350

Villain checks
Hero bets 200
villain calls.

River Qd pot 740.

villain puts hero all in.

Is this a spot where i am ever winning?

AA is possible, as is AK, although unlikely, only one King left.
AQ, suited and off, as AJs are possibilities.
I am beating QQ and JJ, he could have continued with either one. JJ would have turned a boat, so he could check to induce a semi-bluff from AT or AQ or a float with some random garbage i might have peeled with. He could also have decided to check/call with queens and see a river.

I don't see him ever having a straight here, the only ten he has in his range is TT and the occasional ATs he decided to play.

IDK, is this a call or a fold?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I doubt queens are in his range, either way, it's a simple range analysis. You're 75:25 without QQ, 60:40 with.

AJ seems really optimistic too.

I hate playing this deep.



ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
36 trials (Exhaustive)
board: A:club: A:diamond: K:club: J:club: Q:diamond:
JJ, AK, AA, AQ 75.00% (27 wins, 0 ties)
KK 25.00% (9 wins, 0 ties)
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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It would be helpful if we knew anything about his 4b tendencies? I mean I don't really expect AJ often if ever from most players at this level but I guess it's possible.

Honestly feels most like AQ, and I think it's highly optimistic to give him QQ in this spot. JJ is the one hand we beat where I feel like he MIGHT get to the river this way, but is he REALLY lead jamming it on this board? If he check calls turn to allow you some bluffs and any potential Ax that are not boats, why would he lead jam this river (possibly one of the worst in the deck for him). He also has to even have JJ in his 4b range to begin with, which I don't see as a given, even at this stack depth.

I really really struggle to see us winning here ever. I like a fold but I can't really fault a sigh call that much. These are those super tough spots that don't affect our win rates as much as we think because they're just so rare.
 
Q

quant1986

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If villain is a good TAG, I expect he wouldn't overplay JJ on this board and most likely AQ or AA.
 
fingers182005

fingers182005

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if you made it to the river with that strong of a hand you might as well call.. if you lose you can always play another . plus if you call and end up finding out you were ahead. you are now much stronger
 
J

JustSoPro

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At that point I am calling because a lot of tens would be playing like that thinking you only have trips or two pairs. However, you CAN'T be flatting that flop, you have to be re-raising their to at least narrow down your opponents range and get value out of Ax's who don't boat up.
 
TenJack

TenJack

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I fold with a frown and he shows AA. (IDK y he showed, guess he was excited about making such a huge hand.) I was rather disappointed, but was fairly sure i was crushed.
 
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