$200 NLHE Full Ring: JJ squeezed between 3bet/4betting regs

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: JJ squeezed between 3bet/4betting regs

A little over 1k hands on both villains.

CO is playing 14/11/3. Steals 14% from CO, 3bets 4.5%, folds to 3bet only 50% and 4bets 20% (a 2% range but that's only over 16 hands so not super reliable).

SB is 11/9/4.5. He 3bets 4%, but most of it from the blinds, including 11% versus steals and 7% squeezes.

The situation looks an awful lot like a squeeze and a 4bet bluff, but of course it could also be legit. Do we get it in with JJ or do we fold here?

full tilt poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $145.00
UTG+1: $226.60
UTG+2: $436.00
MP1: $171.05
MP2: $62.30
CO: $301.95
Hero (BTN): $200.00
SB: $225.15

BB: $324.05

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with J :heart: J :diamond:
5 folds, CO raises to $6, Hero calls $6, SB raises to $26, 1 fold, CO requests TIME, CO raises to $70, Hero ???
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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I think you can fold. While it certainly can be a bluff, SB doesn't look like the ideal target for a 4-bet bluff (unless there's recent history at the table) and you need BOTH of them to not have QQ+ in order to pull this off, which looks like a tall order to me.

CO looks committed, by the way. I don't know if he considers himself to be but with $200 stacks, he shouldn't be folding much to a shove since he only needs ~30% equity to break even on a call.
 
BelgoSuisse

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I think you can fold. While it certainly can be a bluff, SB doesn't look like the ideal target for a 4-bet bluff (unless there's recent history at the table)

well, there isn't much at the table, but they are both regs, so there could be history between them that i don't know of. And of course CO opens, BTN flats is the perfect spot for a squeeze, and they both know that.
 
F Paulsson

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So let's say that it's a squeeze (bluff, or a hand he will fold at any rate) 70% of the time (i.e. he'll squeeze with a 10% wide range here). And the 4bet is a rebluff 50% of the time. I'm using high but not outrageously high values here. That still means that your shove will get called 65% of the time (unless you can get AK to fold, which I certainly never can).

So 35% of the time you pick up the pot, and 65% of the time you get it in with 36% equity (vs QQ+,AKs,AKo). In other words, you win $102 35% of the time and you lose (on average) (-$194*0.64 + $232*0.36), for an expected value of -$5. And that's assuming they're squeezing and rebluffing that often.
 
BelgoSuisse

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-$5 is not atrocious. it does mean it could be a close call.

Also, (-$194*0.64 + $232*0.36)= -$40 assumes that SB folds and CO calls. When SB calls and CO folds, there's a lot more dead money, so we get (-$194*0.64 + $276*0.36)= -$25. And if we get it in 3way vs {QQ+,AKs,AKo}, we have 26% equity, i.e. (-$194*.74+$406*.26)=-$38.

assuming your numbers and that SB and CO are independent (that's not entirely true, of course), we get 35% folds, 15% showdowns vs. SB, 35% showdowns vs. CO and 15% vs. both.

So our EV for shoving is $102*0.35 - $25*0.15 - $40*0.35 - $38*0.15 = +$6
 
KardKlub

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If it was a squeeze, the Co still 4 bet with you still to act. He must either no you call out with a wide range on the button or he has a hand that is beating yours. Plus you don't no what the SB will do

Fold and wait for a better oportunity to get all in
 
BelgoSuisse

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FWIW, i folded because i'm a nit, and SB instafolded right after me which confirms the light squeeze theory.

What i really don't know is how often CO 4bets light. i know 200nl FTP regs do fight back in obvious squeeze spots, but i really don't know how often.
 
BelgoSuisse

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If it was a squeeze, the Co still 4 bet with you still to act. He must either no you call out with a wide range on the button or he has a hand that is beating yours.

Of course i call him with a wide range on the button. It's MY button... :) Also, I do 3bet generously from the BTN, which he must know too, so i don't think he's too concerned about me if he considers 4betting light.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Alternative question. What do we do in exactly the same spot with QQ or with AK?
 
F Paulsson

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When SB calls and CO folds, there's a lot more dead money

Good point, I didn't consider that.

assuming your numbers and that SB and CO are independent (that's not entirely true, of course)
No, I thought about that for awhile. I wonder how the distribution changes. Is AK a more likely holding because of the squeeze and the 4-bet? Does that vary at all based on card-removal?

At the very least we can be certain that CO is not MORE likely to have AA than normal since AA would flat here hoping to induce a backraise at least some of the time.

I agree that it's close between a shove and a fold. I do think that it's a snapshove with AK and QQ though: if CO is 4-betting JJ, he certainly isn't folding to a backraise, so your equity should be a bit better. And AK has a few % better equity total versus a calling range.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Hand 0: 59.460% 43.60% 15.86% 322525584 117305460.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.540% 24.68% 15.86% 182578824 117305460.00 { AKs, AKo }

instead of

Hand 0: 63.415% 61.85% 01.57% 222385788 5645496.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.585% 35.01% 01.57% 125907060 5645496.00 { JJ }

makes this a snap shove?
 
F Paulsson

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4% extra equity in a $400+ pot should be enough, yes. I mean, if JJ is borderline, AK isn't.
 
cardplayer52

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what about the size of the 4bet? i don't know much about this level. but it seems on the small side. actually the 3bet does also. but the size of the 4bet is sort of looking to me like he wants it to look as though he still can get away from the hand. as if he's just begging to get shoved on. yes i'm a total nit and would most likely fold here. i think i stack QQ here to and for sure AK. the AK because it takes lots of AA's and KK's out of his range. but what about your image? has either one of them seen you smooth call KK+ in a spot like this?
 
BelgoSuisse

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4bets from 200nl regs are nearly always that size. Just below the commitment threshold. Otherwise people just 4bet shove.

My image is probably just that of a standard reg. And flatting AA on the BTN here would not be unheard of for standard regs. Actually, flatting the CO raise with AA here would be the best play unless you have some serious 3betting history.
 
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