This is a discussion on €200 NLHE Full Ring: Interesting 4x pot overbet (not by a fish)... hero call or hero fold? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Here is a very very interesting hand i found. The stakes are 1/2Ä. Hero has little info of the villain but in the few hands
€200 NLHE Full Ring: Interesting 4x pot overbet (not by a fish)... hero call or hero fold?
Here is a very very interesting hand i found. The stakes are 1/2Ä. Hero has little info of the villain but in the few hands that went to the showdown villain didnt seem to get out of line with his 3betting and his brtting in general although he showed some occasional bluffs and is definetely a thinking player capable of making big plays. Hero plays generally pretty solid but likes to float a lot in position to take it fown on the turn.
The game is very deep stack no antes and i will be reviewing it with BB instead of using the actual monetary sums.
It folds to hero in the CO who holds AhQh. Hero opens to 3bb and it folds to BB who raises to 10BB. Hero calls and the pot is 20,5BBs.
Flop is As,10c,10d
Villain bets 15BB and hero calls. Pot=50,5BBs
Turn= Ad villain bets 27BB and hero calls. Pot=104,5BB.
River=Kd. Villain is all in for ~350BBs.
what should the hero do?
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Pretty trivial fold. He's bluffing here 0% of the time and has 1010/AK here 100% of the time. Though imo doing this with AK is a pretty bad play, as only 1010 or the other AK is going to call from any good thinking player.
January 26th, 2016, 7:38 AM
No Brainer [1,854]
We are basically calling for a chop here right? As MinhANguyen says he has almost 0 bluffs here but lets say he were to do this with just an ace 50% of the time for a chop.
fold and lose ~50bbs 100% of the time = -50bb
call and win 0bbs 50% of the time or call and lose 400bbs 50% of the time = -200bb
I am sure someone could work out exactly how many % total bluffs he needs for us to get +EV but I don't think it would be anywhere near close enough to make calling correct.