$200 NLHE Full Ring: I think I was being set mined...

shootwillus

shootwillus

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: I think I was being set mined...

This was at Doyle's Room. I have no stats because I don't use a tracker. My general feeling is this villain is a basic TAG. The only factor that plays into this hand is that I was on a bit of a heater before this, and maybe someone would play into me thinking I was on a bluff.

No hand converter for Doyle's Room:

Hand#1982014424000387 - Seville 14424 -- $1/$2 NL Hold'em -- 2009/09/08 - 03:57:23 Seat 1: fin_***1 ($310.35 in chips) Seat 2: haoy***2 ($200 in chips) Seat 3: MyR4***3 ($40.50 in chips) DEALER Seat 5: shootwillus1 ($358.85 in chips) Seat 7: mmmm***7 ($203.10 in chips) Seat 8: 1vGu***8 ($200 in chips) shootwillus1: posts small blind $1 mmmm***7: posts big blind $2 Dealt to shootwillus1 [Qs,Qc] fin_***1: calls $2 haoy***2: folds MyR4***3: folds shootwillus1: raises to $6 mmmm***7: folds fin_***1: calls $4 *** FLOP *** [8h,3c,2h] shootwillus1: bets $13 fin_***1: raises to $36 shootwillus1: calls fin$23


Here's the thing...he limped into the pot. I raised and he reluctantly called. The flop is exactly the kind of thing someone is looking for when they are set mining against an overpair. I definitly do not put him on aces or kings...but, something about this hand screams "I have a set". I don't know, what do you think? Going up against the low set when you have overs to the board is very difficult to detect, but, I just got a feeling here.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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You're out of position, right? If so, I really don't like calling.

Make a decision about whether or not he can do this with a flushdraw and/or as a bluff with a hand like 55. If he can, re-raise. If he wouldn't, fold. Calling is probably your worst option. In position, I might see a call (and in position I think folding is your worst option) but OOP, just try to end the hand right now because you'll hate almost a third of the cards in the deck that can come on the turn and you'll have a really hard time getting positive implied odds.
 
Z

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Any read on opponent? How would he play 44-77 99 TT JJ AhJh etc?

Even OOP there's nothing wrong with flatting here with the assumption that your hand is kind of face up now (we'd shove overs and a nut FD likely OOP) as an overpair and everyone pretty much assumes that no one folds overpairs ever, so if they bomb the turn you can confidently put them on a set a fold. If they check behind I'd value bet a double blank board, but it does suck that villain sees 2 cards for the price of a flop raise.

I just dislike 3 betting here because it puts us in a weird spot. I dunno what we're hoping to get called by that we beat (maybe TT or something but I think effectively nothing that we beat will call our 3 bet). It also reopens the pot for us to get 4 bet bluffed by the nut FD with overs etc. SO basically 3 betting: 1) folds out everything we beat 2) gives more $$ to sets which obviously will continue 3) allows the nut fd with overs to 4 bet bluff us (we'd fold to a 4 bet obv). I just don't see a point.

I can't say folding is good simply bc we can't go folding overpairs everytime we're raised on a blank board. So i guess flatting wins and reevaluating the turn. Hey we might even improve (2 outs is still 2 outs). The majority of players limp/calling range is pocket pairs though, so Im inclined to fold the turn to further aggression unless ive seen villain get out of line with medium strength hands before

On a side note, your preflop raises are way too small and put you into strange spots like these. We're OOP with a limper already in and we've 3xed it pre. This is not enough. We should be at least 5xing it with a limper in. Limper is effectively folding 0% of his limping range getting 2.5:1. Making it $10 put $14 in the pot and cost opponent $10, now not such a lucrative price.
 
shootwillus

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So, unfortunately there is no really good conclusion as poer results.

The turn came as a blank (low non flush card). I bet out $25 and he pushed all in. I thought about it and folded. He mucked and wouldnt tell me if he had a set.

I think my pre-flop should have been bigger. I shouldnt have let him get into this pot as cheaply as I did. Sometimes you want action, and well, sometimes you get more than what you want.

My best guess here...is I really believe he had a set. The guy was not playing in any way before this that indicated he would make this kind of play without a powerhouse hand. If i was bluffed, so be it....but, sometimes your gut is just screaming at you, and, usually when I ignore it I get felted.
 
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Zybomb

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So, unfortunately there is no really good conclusion as poer results.

The turn came as a blank (low non flush card). I bet out $25 and he pushed all in.

The turn bet is very bad. If someone bet $25 into an $85 into me after I raised him on the flop, I would raise with 100% of my flop raising hands including air. This won't get you the information you are trying to get
 
shootwillus

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Hmm.. i see your point about information. However, in a similar situation, where I held the absolute nuts, I'd make the same bet to induce a bluff. Personally, I am more scared of min/value bets because i see these as huge hands not wanting to scare me out of the pot.

The problem i see with a larger turn bet is...if he pushes, do we auto-fold? Do we always assume that only a better hand pushes on a larger turn bet...i don't know.

For me, the pre flop limp signaled a small pocket pair...i think my huge mistake here was not to raise him out of a comfortable call
 
F Paulsson

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allows the nut fd with overs to 4 bet bluff us (we'd fold to a 4 bet obv).
God, no. If I'm 3-betting, I'm getting it in.

I think calling the flop, re-evaluating (but probably check/folding) turn is a good line for a very select few opponents: The ones who like to bluff the flop but give up when called. But not as a default line versus an unknown. That said, our guy here isn't totally unknown. He limp/called preflop. This isn't precisely the mark of a great player, but it unfortunately also doesn't say much about how he plays postflop. Still, even versus a bad player I think 3-betting and getting it in is better than calling the flop and in most cases ending up check/folding the turn. I just don't see how that can work as a default line.
 
Z

Zybomb

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God, no. If I'm 3-betting, I'm getting it in.

If we 3 bet to $100 or so, we're still $200 behind, and now villain 4 bet shoves, i mean i dunno what we're expecting to be ahead of except Ah Th or something which still has 12 outs. Even if we assign his 4 bet shoving range as a slowplayed AA, KK, JJ (a stretch) 88, 33, 22 and AhXh and further assume that each hand is equally as likely (again not correct but just for simplicity) we're still 8%, 8%, 90%, 9%,9%,9% and 54% for an avg of 27ish % against his range. Keep in mind this is with including JJ as an equally likely hand as the rest (a stretch) If we ignore JJ (not unreasonable imo) we're now down to 16% against his range and we're just getting about 2:1 on our call.

To profitable 3 bet/call we'd need to be (fairly) certain that JJ and TT were both as strong of a part of his range as sets AA KK and Ah Xh, if that were the case it'd be roughly a breakeven call on the 4 bet as we'd have about 34% against his range.


And yes I get your point about calling the c/f ing the turn not being the best line against an unknown who's limp/called pre as we could be giving him too much credit thinking he'll slow down the turn once we call the raise. It may be right to c/c a turn bet and probably c/f the river (unimproved) if he triple bombs. I think that a lot of the time the nut fd and inferior pairs will take a free card on this turn though. I don't think it's that uncommon for a PP 44-77 or 99/TT to raise the flop to "get our overs out", but then check behind once we call. I might be putting too much into the fact that no one expects people to ever fold overpairs (esp at 1/2 stakes) and our hand is pretty much face up as an overpair so inferior hands will slow down but i dunno.
 
F Paulsson

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Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that I think 3-betting is the best play, what I'm saying is that against certain opponents I'll 3-bet this flop. And against those opponents, I'm calling a shove. If I wasn't prepared to do that, I wouldn't 3-bet.

As for the hand itself, I really have no idea what kind of range he has. How wide is his range? 50% of all hands? 10%? And then he raises, which again tells me nothing. The only thing I have to go on is that he limp/called preflop which makes me think he's bad, but that's it.

Default against a bad unknown, I hate life and fold.

By the way, Shootwillus, you may want to be explicit in the OP about you being 150bbs deep against your opponent; I didn't notice it until Zybomb pointed it out. I just assumed we were 100 deep. In this particular case it didn't change the outcome of my line (I still think folding is better than calling) but it's an important piece of information that wasn't all that obvious from the raw hand history.
 
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