re: Poker & $200 NLHE Full Ring: I think I was being set mined...
Originally Posted by F Paulsson
God, no. If I'm 3-betting, I'm getting it in.
If we 3 bet to $100 or so, we're still $200 behind, and now villain 4 bet shoves, i mean i dunno what we're expecting to be ahead of except Ah Th or something which still has 12 outs. Even if we assign his 4 bet shoving range as a slowplayed AA, KK, JJ (a stretch) 88, 33, 22 and AhXh and further assume that each hand is equally as likely (again not correct but just for simplicity) we're still 8%, 8%, 90%, 9%,9%,9% and 54% for an avg of 27ish % against his range. Keep in mind this is with including JJ as an equally likely hand as the rest (a stretch) If we ignore JJ (not unreasonable imo) we're now down to 16% against his range and we're just getting about 2:1 on our call.
To profitable 3 bet/call we'd need to be (fairly) certain that JJ and
TT were both as strong of a part of his range as sets AA KK and Ah Xh, if that were the case it'd be roughly a breakeven call on the 4 bet as we'd have about 34% against his range.
And yes I get your point about calling the c/f ing the turn not being the best line against an unknown who's limp/called pre as we could be giving him too much credit thinking he'll slow down the turn once we call the raise. It may be right to c/c a turn bet and probably c/f the river (unimproved) if he triple bombs. I think that a lot of the time the nut fd and inferior pairs will take a free card on this turn though. I don't think it's that uncommon for a PP 44-77 or 99/TT to raise the flop to "get our overs out", but then check behind once we call. I might be putting too much into the fact that no one expects people to ever fold overpairs (esp at 1/2 stakes) and our hand is pretty much face up as an overpair so inferior hands will slow down but i dunno.