$200 NLHE Full Ring: hand reading exercise, play ranges without knowing hole cards

$200 NLHE Full Ring: hand reading exercise, play ranges without knowing hole cards

I'm going to try to see if this generates some discussion.

This is a live hand I played recently, and one of the players in the hand made a pretty interesting play. This is a very good player and the play he made, I think, is standard in his position but I feel many bad players would have played it differently.

I'm not even going to give hole cards for anyone yet, I want you to think about hand ranges here from descriptions of players and their positions.

Player A is a regular/winner at this $1/$3 game and is generally aggressive and pretty solid. He raises UTG to $15. Stack size: $500

It folds to the BTN, Player B, who is pretty loose but knows what he's doing postflop. Probably too much on the bluffy side. He calls. Stack size: $450

Player C in the BB is a very solid and very aggressive player who also calls.
Stack size: $650

Flop ($46):
UTG bets $40, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn: ($166)
UTG bets $125, BTN calls, BB?

You're BB. First decision, put UTG and BTN on ranges, consider rour own range and what should you be doing with the majority of hands that got to this point.

I see utg having big aces or TT here as he raised UTG so if your read is right, his range should be pretty tight. BTN I think, after his turn call, probably has something like Ax, FDs, I guess he could have sets too but most sets would probably raise the flop.

As for us, i'm not sure. I can see us having some kind of pair like JJ-QQ, maybe AQ(idk though since this is FR)possibly fds or some kind of straight draw. I'd think that we would have definitely raise sets on the flop so I don't know if we have many of those.

I don't want to be too leading here, but

If I'm interpreting this right, you perceive UTG/Player A to have the strongest range by far. What are the worst hands you include in his range? What are the worst hands in UTG's range?

Your judgment also seems to suggest that BTN/Player B has the weakest range, calling with possible weak Ax and he has the most draws?

BB also has some draws but mostly has 1-pair hands. Do you believe AQ is the best hand BB has in his range?

tbh i cant think of many worse hands that UTG barrels this turn card with, especially when two people called his flop bet.

Yes btn I think has the "weakest" range in that it includes Ax hands, suited connectors, sometimes sets.

As for bb yea, i'd think that AQ is probably the strongest hand in his range unless for some odd reason he decided to slowplay a set

UTG I would suspect to have something in the range of AA, TT, AK, KdQd.

BTN I would say something like AT, AJ+, KdQd, I think he raises flop with sets

BB (us), I would think is a fold on flop with JJ or QQ. So we could have something like AJ+, maybe KdJd, KdQd. If we had AT I think it's a flop raise.

In this situation I believe most hands are a fold on the turn for the BB.

EDIT: UTG could also have the other sets, 22, 77

This is pretty interesting.

Question: The BB being solid and aggressive. Does that mean TAG, mostly? or is he loose pre-flop?

Also, more I think of it, the more I take FDs out of BTNs range. I think BTN either has AT, or AJ+. I don't he's calling turn with diamonds, or a straight draw.

Would a "loose" preflop player (BTN) call with A7 or A2 preflop?

For UTG, I think we can also include AQ.

The BB is fairly LAG and will 3-bet/4-bet light and call with a wide range of speculative hands in position but would not call with A-rag type hands in the BB vs. an UTG raise.

I think the BTN would def. call with A7s pre, not sure about A2s. Not sure why you eliminate FDs from his range, would like to hear why. I may be missing something.

Btn folds here with just a fd because I don't think he has the odds to hit. But he could possibly call with a fd W a gutshot,but why not raise flop with a FD + Royal flush draw, trying to get the stacks in?

BB - I think we can also include small sc, which makes this even more of a fold for most of BBs hands.

Preflop Range:
UTG: AK-AQ unsuited, AK-AJ suited, 99-AA
BTN: AK-A10 unsuited, AK-A5 suited, KQs-K10s, Any pair
BB: AK unsuited, AK-A10 Suited, TT-QQ,

Post Flop: (note must assume BB check-called)
UTG: AK-AQ unsuited, AK-AJ suited, TT, AA,
BTN: AK-A10 unsuited, AK-A5 suited, KQd, KJd, KK, (deduce sets expect raise with set)
BB: AK suited, AK-A10 suited, TT

Turn: (Assume again BB checked first)
UTG: AK-AJ (no matter if suited), TT, AA.
BTN: AK-A10, A7s, KQd, KJd,
BB: Min Raise if TT, or A10 (A10 is great as makes villian's chances of set much less likely.... A10 is what I think BB likely has). Call with AK. Fold AQ, AJ.

I think unless BB donk check-called the flop he has a small but strong range (with check call on the flop), BTN has the weakest range but has draws, and UTG either has a very strong hand like a set or only Top Pair top kicker.

baudib1 said:

You're BB. First decision, put UTG and BTN on ranges, consider rour own range and what should you be doing with the majority of hands that got to this point.

Click to expand...

UTG's range after the turn bet, AQo+, AJs+, AA, TT, 77 probably has one diamond
Raising UTG in a loose game by a solid player should be a very small range, normal c-bet and then fire again on a blank turn. Isn't too worried about the FD or anyone else having an Ace and bet sizing is about right to shove a non-diamond river.

BTN range after the turn bet, 2 diamonds, broadway and wheel draws, AT, A7, A2, usually these bluffy players will also play big draws too

BB range, KdQd, KdJd, Qd,Jd, AA, TT, 22 but who knows when you cold call twice OOP. I couldn't put you on a wheel draw or 77. You might have floated AA here but would have squeezed with any other high pair. If you had flopped a set you probably would have raised on the turn to charge the probable draw that the BTN has and squeeze UTG. If you have floated your set on the flop too then shove here since the BTN will call with a NFD no matter what UTG does. If you do have the NFD then call and if you hit you should be able to get a 1/3-1/2 pot bet called by one or the other.

FYI:

I was UTG. BB folded on the turn.

flop ($46):
BB checks, UTG bets $40, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn: ($166)
UTG bets $125, BTN calls, BB folds

River: ($416)
UTG checks, BTN bets $125, UTG?????

I think that utg is probably toast but I think he might have to call that bet with his aces/sets

Given the read on the BTN, call if you have AT, AJ and sets.

What about AQ?

baudib1 said:

What about AQ?

Click to expand...

Is BTN really gonna call off 2 streets with A-rag that hasn't made 2P?? Doubtful.

.

Jillychemung said:

BTN range after the turn bet, 2 diamonds, broadway and wheel draws, AT, A7, A2, usually these bluffy players will also play big draws too

Click to expand...

.

So, results:

I had AQcc and called, bTN mucked. BB folded AQhh on turn.

Who played it well?

I guess most of us gave BTN too much credit or he had something like KK or QQ and could not give it up.... (doubtful though)


I would still consider folding AQ on the river bet but at $125 in a $416 pot is giving you over 4 to 1 odds... Makes it so you only have to win 20% of the time to make it EV+... So call is justifiable if you think villain is "bluffy"


I still like the BB fold over long run as to be risking that much with what could easily be 2nd best hand and not likely to improve is good. BB has to figure is beat and out of position in most cases especially once river card comes Jd.


UTG played the hand well. Fired 2 shots and called down the 3rd for showdown. Staying aggressive during the hand and when ready for a cheap showdown know that BTN is a little "bluffy" calling is good.... AQ IMO is not enough to bet river but good enough for heads up showdown.


BTN could have put in a larger river bet and would have made it a fold IMO say with a 1/2 pot bet. None the less he lost 1/2 of his stack when he could not beat top pair 2nd best kicker.... Likely not well played.


BB again I am happy with the fold on the turn... He only lost $55 on a good starting hand out of position with top pair.... I think if he calls down he is EV- over the long run. If he had better position perhaps he could have played it differently.


Nice Hand and great exercise

One more question:

How does BB's fold impact our river decision?

BTW, as I said BTN didn't show but I believe he had QJ or KJ with a diamond because I tanked a while and when I finally called, he asked if I had a 10, i.e. he was merging his gutshot-rivered-2nd pair.

When BB told me he folded AQ I was a bit surprised, but I told him it was a good fold. We talked about this hand quite a bit and basically I said i would almost never bomb the turn (essentially committing myself to a turn raise from either) with a worse hand.

BB's range is capped, I would snap call an all-in from him with any hand I'd double barrel here as he can basically never have AK or better on the turn. My range (UTG, barreling into 2) is infinitely stronger -- I have many more nut-hands.

So the fact that he's at the top of his range and I'm at the bottom of mine with the same hand is interesting but basically he'd have way more equity with a draw than AQ in this spot, so good fold.

To me, the turn is an easy bet obviously and if stacks were shallower, I would have shoved. BB's range is not only capped, it is pretty much face up as AJ-AQ, small flush draw.

As for river -- I felt (and said) that the Jd was the worst river in the deck. But what led me to calling was the fact that I felt the hands beating me were either A. a flush or B. AJ.

But with three large diamonds on the board, I felt there were fewer flushes in his range. Sure he could have a K-high or Q-high flush but if he had a royal I felt he would have raised the flop.

BB's fold took many combos that beat me out of play because I felt his range was heavily weighted toward AJ combos and smaller diamonds; I feel he obviously would have called with a K-high or Q-high flush draw on turn but is folding all smaller draws for fear of domination.