$200 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped 2 Pair vs Action on Wet Board

B

bw07507

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: Flopped 2 Pair vs Action on Wet Board

MP1 is 20/16/2.7 with 100% cbet over 90 hands
MP2 is 20/0/1.5 over 10 hands

Ive been 17/15/2.5, dont play at FT much though, so regs dont have hands on me

wtf do i do here?


Full Tilt, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP1: $228 (114 bb)
MP2: $197 (98.5 bb)
MP3: $78 (39 bb)
CO: $200 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $205.85 (102.9 bb)
SB: $200 (100 bb)
BB: $73.75 (36.9 bb)
UTG+1: $136.50 (68.3 bb)
UTG+2: $40 (20 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 7
heart.gif
9
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2 folds, MP1 raises to $7, MP2 calls $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($24) 9
club.gif
7
spade.gif
T
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(3 players)
MP1 bets $19, MP2 raises to $81, Hero ?
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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okay i expect MP1 there to be cbetting with something like JJ-AA. but wtf does MP2 have ... TT? or JJ or QQ? 68 or something like JQ of spades makes sense. Ugly.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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fold imo. you can't really flat and your equity really sucks when you get it in. i doubt MP1 is just auto-cbetting into 2 players on this board and most players' criteria to raise once he does is gonna be pretty selective
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

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obv not familiar with the tricks of the trade at 200NL but doesn't MP2 have us beat enough to fold this pretty quick?
 
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bw07507

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yea, this is a pretty easy fold, but for some reason at 200NL everyone has to be bluffing right? Obv I shove and MP1 flips 77 and MP2 flips 88. Lol at MP2
 
JonasBluffer

JonasBluffer

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Wow dude! I fold here man... i think two pair is not enough. I really like to play like you, 79s on the BTN, you can flop some big hands, but 2 pair is not good here, i think that MP2 has a set, and MP1 a straight/flush draw, the bets are so big i can't see a call with two pair man... easy fold.
 
BelgoSuisse

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200nl fr on FTP. That's my playground... :D

I don't think it's an easy fold at all. With 77 MP1 is at the very very top of his range here, and MP2 could show up with all kinds of random crap as demonstrated.
 
dsvw56

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BelgoSuisse said:
200nl fr on FTP. That's my playground... :D

I don't think it's an easy fold at all. With 77 MP1 is at the very very top of his range here, and MP2 could show up with all kinds of random crap as demonstrated.
Click to expand...

Even so, when we do get it in, our equity is never great. Barely ahead/way behind and all that jazz. If we had top two instead of bottom two, it becomes a lot closer. But as it is, this is a pretty clear fold.
 
BelgoSuisse

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dsvw56 said:
Even so, when we do get it in, our equity is never great.
Click to expand...

wat?

The huge majority of the time, MP1 folds after his cbet is raised and 3bet. We're super unlucky to see a set here. And sometimes he stacks an overpair which makes up for that.

So the huge majority of the time we end up heads up against MP2 who stacks a ton of weak flush or straight draws against which we have about 66% equity. a few stronger draws against which we flip, and only a very small range of better two pairs and sets that crush us.

I'm not saying stacking here is hugely +EV, but i really don't think it's a super easy fold as some of you suggest.
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

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BelgoSuisse said:
wat?

The huge majority of the time, MP1 folds after his cbet is raised and 3bet. We're super unlucky to see a set here. And sometimes he stacks an overpair which makes up for that.

So the huge majority of the time we end up heads up against MP2 who stacks a ton of weak flush or straight draws against which we have about 66% equity. a few stronger draws against which we flip, and only a very small range of better two pairs and sets that crush us.

I'm not saying stacking here is hugely +EV, but i really don't think it's a super easy fold as some of you suggest.
Click to expand...

You really think MP1 is C-betting this board in to two people without a very strong hand? He's obviously competent, so I highly doubt he's bet/folding here a lot.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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dsvw56 said:
You really think MP1 is C-betting this board in to two people without a very strong hand? He's obviously competent, so I highly doubt he's bet/folding here a lot.
Click to expand...

You'd be surprised at the number of regs who cbet 100%, regardless of the board. And since MP2 is a fish and bw an unknown, i do think he cbets a very large part of his range here.
 
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