$200 NLHE Full Ring: Flop Middle Set: Do you ever fold here?

Would really appreciate opinions/advice.. Onto the hand...

Hero: HI-Jack. Stack $190-$200
Villain: UTG-2. Stack $200-250

Villain raises to $12 after a couple limps

5 players going to the flop

Pot $72

Flop 2sAh5h

*Players to the left of me check
*Villain makes it $15
*Hero raises to $50

Pot $137

Rest of the players fold

*Villain 4-bets to $120
*Hero 5-bets all in
*Villain calls


Does anyone fold here?

My thoughts after the hand and up until this point..

-I played with this player last night. He bought in for $200 and appeared to be a TAG player. I'm not good at assigning playing styles (Something I need to work on).

-After he bets the flop in 5 way pot, I think he has an Ace. After his 4 bet I think I can narrow his range down to 4 hands. KhQh, 22, AKh, AA. Given this player I thought no way he'd make this move with KhQh and very unlikely he has 22. I figure it has to be AK with the king of hearts or AA. Instincs told me AA. I just sat down 10 minutes before the hand. I don't believe he'd think I'd 3 bet a flush draw or an Ace. So either he thinks I'm strong or he doesn't care because of how strong he was.

-After thinking about the hand on the drive home, I can't see how he'd have anything but AA here. My problem is I can't seem to think all of this through while in the hands and I end up calling/betting off my stack.

Given the hand, the player, and how I've described it, does anyone fold here?

Don't fold sets. Don't fold sets with the SPR less than 4.

Oh, and 1 more thing: Don't fold sets in a 1/2 live game.

Also, what's with all the micro-betting on the flop? 21% pot bet by villain, you raise 34% of pot. I realize no one counts in live games, but that's pretty bad.

I agree with c9h13no3. Once you start folding sets, you'll lose more EV in the long run. You should've went to value town on the flop. 50-60% pot.

Thanks I wa thinking the same thing. Folding sets here would be far too tight/scared poker.

The flop was $87 after Villains $15 flop bet. I raised to $50 which was about 55% of the pot on the flop. Should I raised more?

Hello.

You played 55 for one reason.
To hit your 2 outer.
Once you did it you should be willing to stack of.
You are beating too many value hands of villain and lose to only three combos of AA and some kind of weird 43s hands.
So shipping all your stack in the middle is very profitable with sets.
If you fold your set then you are being too exploitable.
If villain had AA there is nothing that you can do there,just bad luck.

shove till the cows come home. if you don't bet with those cards, what are you waiting for?

As the rest have said 1/2 100bb stack and you flopped middle set....psch r.i.p. buy-in if hes got the 2 combos of AA. I dont even think a super computer heads up solver would fold in that scenario, its just part of the game my man try and take it like a champ when your at the table you'll be on the other side of it sooner or later.
It's funny Ive actually seen that exact scenario play( 55set vs AAset) out and these dudes were way deeper stacked and same thing happened all in on the flop

Just remember what no to do when open up AK utg and get 4 callers ...

Thanks for the post. After reading all the replies I can see this is never the hand to make a hero fold on. I'll be playing a hand like this for max value going forward.

i would not fold a set there,especially middle set, your equity is way high and the betting wasn't that impressive.

Damn, I would never fold that, chances of him having a pocket aces are really low so how could you know...

A pot sized bet gives your opponent 2:1 odds to call. Your opponent has to call $35 to win $137 (50+15+72) when you raised to $50 total. That offers 3.9:1 odds, or in percentages, your raise was 34% of the pot (35/102). It's cool, math is hard.

A pot sized raise would be $117 (call his $15, makes the pot $102, and then $102 raise on top). Issue is on the turn you're going to be left with less than a pot sized bet behind anyways. I'm sort of inclined to just shove it all in.

I'm new to the math involved. The way I thought of it was the pot was $72+$15 making it $87. $50/87 is 57%.

So when calculating I include the call portion of my raise as part of the pot? Meaning $87+$15 = $102. So my bet is actually $35/102 = 34%?

Exactly. You have to call his bet first.

I'm real glad you posted some math. Not factoring the call makes a dramatic difference. I've been pricing Villains into calling without even realizing it.