$200 NLHE Full Ring: FD line check

Stacks: I have 360, initial raiser has 320, 1st caller has 200, 2nd caller has 100.

Reads: None really, but they seem solid.

Preflop, MP raises to $8. Next two seats call, I call in the CO w/ 9 8 , button and blinds fold.

Flop comes Q 5 3 . MP (initial PF raiser) bets $17, a fold, villain calls. I call, getting correct odds.

Turn is J . MP checks, villain bets $36. I call. River is small club that doesn't pair the board. Villain bets all in I call.
Preflop, I think calling or folding is ok. Flop call is standard, I'm in one of the few spots where I'm actually getting the right odds to draw to a flush.

Turn was the tough decision.

Reasons to call: Getting 3.4:1, almost enough expressed odds. MP might call, which would be great. Villain may feel he's pot committed if he has like AQ, giving me implied odds.

Reasons to fold: MP could c/r. One of them may have a higher FD, or set, ruining my odds.

sigh I hatez when ppl edit and delete after I post ITT. Especially since i dont do it often

Yeah I tried to edit it. I didn't have a gutshot on the turn, just a lone flush draw. As played, I actually called turn, rivered a flush, board didn't pair, villain shoved, I called.

Is turn a fold?

This hand really has me stuck on the implied odds, despite your equity being around ~25%. With the price being cheap to see the river and still many outs for you, I'd say it's a call. It feels criminal to lay the hand down for me.

The river I hate villain's shove due to the fact there is QcXc and JcXc and other higher flush combos possible, but this being the reason why you called the turn if he does have a higher flush you have to pay him off, or you're getting a nice pot yourself when you call.

its live 200nl, i dont think im folding on the river.

yodachoda said:

Preflop, I think calling or folding is ok. Flop call is standard, I'm in one of the few spots where I'm actually getting the right odds to draw to a flush.

Turn was the tough decision.

Reasons to call: Getting 3.4:1, almost enough expressed odds. MP might call, which would be great. Villain may feel he's pot committed if he has like AQ, giving me implied odds.

Reasons to fold: MP could c/r. One of them may have a higher FD, or set, ruining my odds.

Click to expand...

Real quick because you commented preflop could go either way...Preflop folding is NOT ok... like ever. Ignoring the fact that you're playing low limit live NL (thus the players generally suck and will overvalue top pair hands pay you off etc) You're playing 150BBs deep, in position with 3.5:1 on your call with a hand that is easy to play post. If folding crosses your mind even for a micro second you are playing way way way way way way way way too tight and need to seriously expand your range.

On the flop it's one of those situations where you can call because of a good price, but you have to proceed with caution... Our flush draw is far from the nut draw and it's been bet and called before us. The possibility of a higher FD has to enter our heads. But we're in position so we can reevaluate easier and we do have 4:1 on a call.

As far as implied odds go, this situation is more of a situation of reverse implied odds, the times we make our flush and it is no good will cost us more money than the extra money we make when we hit our flush (with multiway action people are going to be aware of the obvious flush that came and become worried that someone has hit it, making extraction difficult)

Because of this, I fold the turn despite the fact that we are getting 3.3:1 on a call. We're a 4:1 dog to hit (you said you didn't pick up a gutshot despite the HH that says you did, so Im assuming you didnt) so pot odds alone doesn't warrant a call, and when you factor in the reverse implied odds scenario, combined with the fact that the PFR could c/r some non 0 % of the time

As played (call turn)... whats the stack of the villain that shoved, HH is unclear? Is it the $100 stack guy? In which case it's $39 all in on the river? In that case yea we obviously call. If it's the $200 stack then I'd probably fold, seeing that his river shove of $139 is a gross overbet (not so much in terms of pot size, it's just under a pot sized bet, but in terms of live player syndrome where betting 4x the previous street is deemed as very large and on top of that the scare card just hit so him value towning non flushes in this manner is unlikely), so I'd highly doubt he'd bet this without a flush himself, and while there are a few suited connected clubs that we can beat, we lose to more... at the same time we called to make our hand and we have, so how in the world can we fold now? This situation is precisely why I fold the turn.

Zybomb, thanks for the analysis. Roughly what % of each villain's range would you say makes up a higher flush draw? And yes, the villain's all in on the river was about $40. Does villain really fold AQ or KQ on the river if I hit the flush and he checks? He'd be getting 4.8-1 pot odds.

yodachoda said:

Zybomb, thanks for the analysis. Roughly what % of each villain's range would you say makes up a higher flush draw? And yes, the villain's all in on the river was about $40. Does villain really fold AQ or KQ on the river if I hit the flush and he checks? He'd be getting 4.8-1 pot odds.

Click to expand...

Yea players at 1-2 NL live would probably not be folding AQ hands too often regardless, but these players probably are raising AQ on the flop to begin with, so his Qx hands are skewed more to KQ QJ QT

It's tough to assign a % number to each villains range that makes up higher FDs bc PFRs range is tremendous (he raised pre cbet the flop and check the turn, he could have almost anything), and although we can skew the callers range, it's still wide... AQ KQ QJ QT along with some mid pairs 66-88 (maybe 99 TT also?) sets (55 33), then flush draws A2cc-AJcc (we assume he pops AQcc and reraises AKcc pre) KJcc KTcc (we'll ignore KQcc, QJcc QTcc assuming he'd raise the flop) JTcc 76cc.

Basically with the 5c 3c out the only FD you're beating is likely 76cc. If we assume he'll call all AcXc hands pre that's 10 combos if we don't include AKs and AQs plus 3 other FDs even if we ignore the Qx FDs

no way i'm folding the turn here ever