£200 NLHE Full Ring: Facing river overbet from flop raiser with a trip but straight possibility

Q

quant1986

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£200 NLHE Full Ring: Facing river overbet from flop raiser with a trip but straight possibility

Live weekday night cash game £1/2, full ring

SB: £300+ mid 20s to early 30s african origin white collar worker , smiley face
BB: <£200
BTN: £250 Hero, new to the table

All folded to button with AJo, raised to £8, SB called and BB called

Flop: A56r (pot £24)

SB checked, BB checked , Hero bet £13, SB raised to £30 and BB folded.
Hero called.

Turn: 7 still rainbow
SB checked. Hero checked.

River: A (pot £84)
SB bet £100, Hero?

Without further information, would you call/raise/fold?
 
J

JustSoPro

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His betting line looks like he could have flopped a set and made a boat on the river, and he is over-betting the river hoping you have an A. The only hands I see you beating here are ATo and A2s-ATs and splitting with an AJ, with no information on the opponent I would fold here as most of the players at live 1-2 play pretty straight forward including the few who actually bluff(Most of them will try making another big bluff like 3 hands later or show their cards because the get some type of joy out of it).
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Why did you call the flop? We have a slight edge against draws, and are crushed by his value range (A5/55/AQ type stuff).

TPNK is a weak hand, and villain's check/raise indicates he's building a big pot. I'd just fold the flop.
 
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quant1986

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Why did you call the flop? We have a slight edge against draws, and are crushed by his value range (A5/55/AQ type stuff).

TPNK is a weak hand, and villain's check/raise indicates he's building a big pot. I'd just fold the flop.

This is top of my range and could still be ahead of draw.

Against entire range (without gutshot bluff raise or weird bluff), I have ~40% equity to call, [66-55,AJs+,A6s-A5s,87s,43s,AJo+,A6o-A5o,87o,43o]
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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This is top of my range and could still be ahead of draw.

Against entire range (without gutshot bluff raise or weird bluff), I have ~40% equity to call, [66-55,AJs+,A6s-A5s,87s,43s,AJo+,A6o-A5o,87o,43o]
It is not the top of your range. Something like AA is the high end.

40% equity is for the river, so you have to call more bets to get there. And I doubt your opponent has 43o, that's quite optimistic.
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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Flop is marginally ahead way behind spot so folding is ok,calling is ok as'well and reevaluate turn and id fold the river.
 
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quant1986

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Thanks all for the comments.
Villain held 43s and he did play this hand well, perhaps he was ready to fold to a reraise on the river if I had a larger stack.

Made a bad call on the river as villain does not have any good bluff hands and he should be likely to barrel the turn if this is the case.
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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Thanks all for the comments.
Villain held 43s and he did play this hand well, perhaps he was ready to fold to a reraise on the river if I had a larger stack.

Made a bad call on the river as villain does not have any good bluff hands and he should be likely to barrel the turn if this is the case.

Your river call is no where near as bad as villains call pre ;) after the turn checks through it likely is a +ev call on the river thinking about it more.
 
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