$200 NLHE Full Ring: Eyes fluttering, mistates stack size

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baudib1

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I don't consider myself a "soul reader" and I usually tell people that physical tells are a hugely overrated part of live poker. Verbal tells are another story as many many people give away so much when they speak.

Here's the hand: A LAG opens with a minraise to $6 UTG, 1 call from a loose player in CO, and I have :ad4: :js4: OTB. I make it $25 -- this is purely a 3-bet for value as raiser's bet-sizing indicates a speculative hand (his normal raises are $10-$20) and he won't fold whatever crap he opened with. BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.

Villain is BB. Don't know much about him. He's younger, probably 25-30, listening to his iPod. We were involved in a small pot where everyone checks flop on A65, he small on 4 turn, I call, river is 3, he bets, I fold and he shows :6h4:

Stack sizes: He has just under $400 and I have him barely covered.

Flop: Pot $101, 4 players: :7h4: :jh4: :jc4:
Checks to me and I bet $60, BB calls, everyone else folds.

Turn: Pot $221, 2 players: :kh4:
BB bets $110, I call.

River: Pot $441, 2 players: :10d4:
BB says "All-in."

I ask him how much. I notice he is blinking very rapidly and he blurts, "Two-ninety!" He had pushed forward 2 stacks, he then corrects himself and says, "One-ninety something." It was $198.

What do you make of his reaction and do you call? My initial instinct is to fold. $198 to win ~$639 minus rake.
 
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Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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Fold. The blurt combined with the increased blinking suggests a strong hand.
 
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Poker_play

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Fold.

You've pretty much got a bluffcatcher at this point. Everything you described sounds like monster (nut flush or KJ imo).

(Unless he's a donk and doing this w qj for value..not likely)
 
youregoodmate

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KJ is unlikely, I doubt he donks on the turn. Probably a flush here. Definite fold though.
 
acky100

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sounds like he's doing the whole act weak game...
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Take it he had air then?
 
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Poker_play

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If you snapcalled and he had air.....lolz

If he's valuebetting/playing abc poker here, you're beat.

Now he's giving obv tells that he's nervous..probably monster or air..I tend to lean monster. Most players tat think ahead enough to bring ipods..are usually good enough to make a conscious effort to act 'cool' or 'normal' when bluffing.

Live 1/2 is lolllll tho so him totallyy choking on a bluff attempt is completely possible
 
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baudib1

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Don't get me wrong I think his line is uber strong and he's never value betting worse. I give him credit enough to have more than a few bluffs though and the blinking really made me think hard.
 
bgomez89

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I'm just going to fold this here. His line makes sense. Hit flush on turn, have to donk to set up stacks for the river(plus donking looks weak).

If you called, I'd really like to hear your reasoning though
 
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baudib1

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My hand vs. this line is a fold. I wanted to fold. I knew I was supposed to fold. I kept wrestling with "go with your first instinct."

I've mentioned before that I almost always ask how much an all-in bet is, or I ask how much people have left. It's generally not because I need to know because I am pretty good at guesstimating stack sizes. But, it does two things:

1. Prevents my natural inclination to act too fast. Forces me to slow down and consider all information in big spots.
2. You get to hear and see what they do.

Never really thought that the whole sunglasses at the table thing was worthwhile, but this hand made me reconsider. The rapid blinking was remarkable. This is generally something you can't control, and it's hard to fake.

Also, I may not have described the situation well. I think if you play live enough, you get a good feel for when someone is shoving their flush against your obvious good hand and want a call. They're relaxed. If you ask them a question, they might smile or laugh. Besides the blinking and the misstating his stack size, he didn't really do anything specific but he wasn't vibing confidence.

I really really wanted to fold and I kept thinking about how long it's been since I made a hero call and was right. It's been a long damn time. The more I thought about it though, I wanted to call.

Another thing I felt was interesting was his turn bet. It may be minor, may be nothing. I found it interesting that he bet almost exactly half the pot. It made me think that 1. he was keeping track of the pot size 2. he was at least as semi-thinking player, that he had a reason for betting that amount, instead of a random amount or a nice round number like $100.

I really struggled to put him on a range of bluffs. In fact the river bothered me because something he might be bluffing with, 98, got there. I could see him floating the flop to represent a slowplayed jack because he doesn't think I'm that strong. The turn was obviously a good card to bluff/semi-bluff.

To be honest, I never put him on a full house. For one, fullhouses are obviously hard to make when I have a jack here. Also, I feel as though if he had a full house, 77 or KJ, he would just check the turn hoping I had a flush.

After about 5 minutes of thinking it through, I called and he said, "Good call."
 
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