Originally Posted by LeGenie
My strategy when limping with Ax suited in EP is to flop a flush draw and stack a K high or Q high flush when I hit and at 1/2 NL tables it happens quite often
Even when an Ace hits the board I proceed cautiously knowing that players tend to limp with hands like AJ, AQ, and sometimes even AK from any position.
Do you have evidence indicating this strategy actually is profitable? It's easy to remember a few times when you won big pots, but no, they don't happen often.
You're dealt any suited A somewhere around one time in 27 hands. Since you're talking about EP, let's assume 1/3 of the seats are EP. So, you're dealt a suited A in EP about once in 81 deals. Suited cards make a flush by the river about 1 time in 16. So you're dealt a suited A in EP and make a flush with it about 1 time in 1296 deals.
I don't know the odds of someone else having a flush when you have one, but they're not great. Let's say it happens one time out of every three you make your flush; I suspect it's even less often. So the scenario where you start with a suited A in EP, make a flush and beat a lower flush happens 1 time in 3888 deals.
This assumes you limp every suited A and get to see the river every time. So if you fold any hands before the river, the avg number of hands for each flush over flush to happen is even higher. Even ignoring this, at 25 deals per hour, 3888 deals take 155.5 hours. This doesn't seem like "quite often" to me.
I suspect you think your strategy is profitable because the big pots you win as you described are memorable while the many times you lose small amounts are not. And even if it is profitable, there's still the possibility it's not optimally profitable.