$200 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set facing overbet on the turn by UTG preflop raiser on dry board

Q

quant1986

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$200 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set facing overbet on the turn by UTG preflop raiser on dry board

Live £1/1 game, 8-handed

UTG: good reg, tight preflop, £400+
UTG+1: Hero, stack ~£200
MP: Loose passive, stack <£100
BTN: No much info

UTG raised to £7, Hero called with 22, MP called, BTN called.

Flop: 249 rainbow (pot £30)

UTG bet £21, Hero called, MP folded, BTN folded.

Turn: 5d (pot £72)
now two diamonds on the board, and hero does not have a diamond

UTG bet £100, Hero ??

I didn't raise on the flop as the board is bone dry even 2 acting behind.

1, What is your view on villain's range?
2. If Hero instead had T9s without diamond , would you fold on the turn or play differently on the flop?
 
TenJack

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My first thought is you need to fold this preflop. You are in UTG+1, so you have terrible pos. with a hand that, unless you flop a set, you are going to have to fold on the flop. Also, UTG is tight, so his range is mostly composed of big pairs and big aces. You are either dominated completely or flipping a coin with basically his entire range. So, either fold or raise very big preflop. On the flop, i think you need to raise him. Your range really never hits this flop unless you have a set of nines, so it looks like a bluff and will get a lot of value from his overpairs (TT+). On the turn, im not sure what ur afraid off? Get you entire stack in for sure. Only hand he has that beats you is 99. Im shoving here every time.
 
elflake

elflake

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I put him on an over pair and shove. If he has a set of 9s he'll just have to show me. 10/9 I raise on the flop and fold to a re-raise.
 
hugh blair

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Overpair most of time AA KK once you hit that 2 ball your keeping opponent honest sometimes bigger set sometimes overpair what did they have?
 
TenJack

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I am in total agreement with elflake. He is putting in about 2/3 your stack, he will never fold if u ship.Nines are in the bottom of his range and they are the only hand that he can have that is beating u in his range. Go for it. I honestly hope you didn't fold this.
 
Q

quant1986

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hugh blair said:
Overpair most of time AA KK once you hit that 2 ball your keeping opponent honest sometimes bigger set sometimes overpair what did they have?
Click to expand...


He is a good reg in my view and don't overplay overpairs.
If he has 99, probably he just check-raise/call on the flop due to dry board nature but yes he may still be betting. Turn overbet is highly suspicious and he for sure does not play 99 like that as I had virtually nothing to call with except A3 or lower set.

So this is bluff-heavy and in this case he had Ad7d, and called my raise to allin on the turn. If I had a larger stack, I would have raised to £300.
 
Q

quant1986

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TenJack said:
My first thought is you need to fold this preflop. You are in UTG+1, so you have terrible pos. with a hand that, unless you flop a set, you are going to have to fold on the flop. Also, UTG is tight, so his range is mostly composed of big pairs and big aces. You are either dominated completely or flipping a coin with basically his entire range. So, either fold or raise very big preflop. On the flop, i think you need to raise him. Your range really never hits this flop unless you have a set of nines, so it looks like a bluff and will get a lot of value from his overpairs (TT+). On the turn, im not sure what ur afraid off? Get you entire stack in for sure. Only hand he has that beats you is 99. Im shoving here every time.
Click to expand...

This table is relatively passive so I think set mining is fine as I don't expect people 3bet UTG open without premium hands.
 
elflake

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I think the basic math holds that it is okay to call up to 10 BBs with small pairs.
 
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RakeMyLife

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With your stack, that's a simple shove. As someone noted, 99 is at the bottom of his range and you shouldn't worry much about set over set anyway.

I also don't think there's anything wrong with flatting pre. You're set mining with good odds (7 to 200), and 3bets at low limits in live play are infrequent (so your position is negligible). But that's also why you need to get your money in when you hit that set.
 
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