$200 NLHE Full Ring: Bottom set very deep

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: Bottom set very deep

Most interesting hand of the trip for me.

Stacks are deep around the table, I think the smallest is short of a full buyin, but there are several 200+bb stacks.

I limp 22 utg, Debi two seats behind me raises to like $15. Folds back to me, I call.

Flop comes JT2, I check-raise her cbet to $65. She repops to $145 after some thinking. We started the hand a little over $600 deep.

Can I ever fold here? I don't think she repops QQ-AA that often here (looks like stove says she has to be doing it somewhere over 1/3 of the time for me to have an edge here), she doesn't really value raise worse, and she %99.99999999 never bluffs.

I decided to flat. I couldn't figure out combos during the hand and figured the overpairs were enough to call and let her think maybe AA-QQ was good then crai a blank turn.

Turn comes an offsuit A, I check, she thinks a while and jams.
 
pantin007

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against a nit like debi, i think this is a fold on the flop, i think she would only do this with a set
 
Deco

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Is the flop suited?
What our Debi's Stats?
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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When Debi 3-bet the flop and you tanked, the only thing I could think was that this was a set-over-set situation and that you had the worst of it (since TT/JJ wasn't in your range and 22 wasn't in hers).

If I was playing really well I would have folded the flop. In practise I probably wouldn't have but would still have check/folded the turn because by calling a flop 3-bet there's virtually no chance that Debi would jam ANY turn without the nuts (or what was effectively the nuts since AA wasn't in your range and hardly KQ either).
 
zachvac

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Board: Jc Td 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.374% 51.37% 00.00% 22887 0.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 48.626% 48.63% 00.00% 21663 0.00 { JJ-TT, JTs, JTo }



Fold. You're barely ahead if she plays all JT like this and I don't think she does certainly not that huge so this should be a fold on the flop. Is she going to be putting pressure on you knowing you're deep and push draws like KQ? I don't think so. Obviously turn is a snapfold though just because AA is like one of the only other hands you could be ahead of and KK/QQ don't bet that turn that hard.
 
Mase31683

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Board: Jc Td 2h
Obviously turn is a snapfold though just because AA is like one of the only other hands you could be ahead of and KK/QQ don't bet that turn that hard.

That's exactly what I was thinking. I don't know Debi, but based on what you describe I like the crai on the turn letting overpairs think they can still be good and having a big pot out there. Turn makes me puke.
 
vanquish

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she has it, you can fold (the flop is prob a fold actually)
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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yeah i pretty much agree turn is an 'easy' fold, and we can potentially even fold flop. I dunno, I think overpairs might 3bet flop though and I don't really hate flatting...
 
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