$200 NLHE Full Ring: Big live hand at 200NL

Here's a hand I need analyzed that I played at my local place.

Game: 1/2 NLHE.

Relevant stacks: Hero (SB): $1050
Villain 1 (MP+1): $600
Villain 2 (MP+2 or whatever is next): $900

Reads: I have history with villain 1, mostly from a hand where he double-barrelled on a monotone board and I held TPTK. I called both streets and held to win a sizeable pot. He said he held a diamond. I had 3b with AQ and he called IP with AJ.
Villain 2 won't be very important, but he is a more than solid reg that clearly crushes the tables here.

Dealt to Hero in SB: AsQd.

Folds to V1 who raises to $7.
V2 calls $7
two more calls of $7.

Hero thinks and 3b to $42.
BB folds
V1 calls $42
V2 calls $42
other two limpers fold.

Flop ($142) Qs10s6s.

Hero checks.
V1 bets $100.
V2 folds.
Hero raises to $250.
V1 calls after some thought.

Turn ($642)

Villain has around $300 left.
Hero shoves and covers villain.

Thoughts? Thanks guys.

3-bet pre is okay. Check-call flop or bet 65% PSB OTF. Check-raising is the worst of the three options. Overreps your hand and isolates yourself against a stronger range. Once you get called, you might be drawing pretty thin and maybe only spades are your only outs. Also, you get put into a really crappy spot if you get shoved on. You'd probably have to fold, unless Villain is the type to stack off with TPTK/TPGK300bb deep, which is super unlikely.

I prefer check-call. I think people misplay TP + FD/ pair + FD type of hands. Right now our hand has SDV. The fact that we have the NFD does not change that or make our hand have anymore relative strength than it does if we did not.

We do not want to get raised off our hand and blown off our equity. Or have to commit with this type of hand for 300bb. Checking also opens up their bluffing range. Also, there are very few bad cards for you in the deck, so there's not much of a reason to start shoving in money to "protect" your hand. Fwiw we bet only for value or as a bluff. When you raise here, you must have many more WORSE hand combinations in Villain's range that are going to call a bet in order for this to be a value bet. But I don't think there are many worse hands that are calling. Essentially here you just turned your hand into a bluff, but no hand better than yours is folding (flushes, Q10s that got frisky pre, 1010, QQ, 66). When you start raising on any type of board, especially monotone boards, you're isolating yourself against a much stronger range.

As played, shoving is the only option. Not great, but we have less than a 50% PSB left. I expect to lose here a lot, very rarely be good, and sometimes suck out on the river if he ends up calling, which is going to be pretty often.

Not a fan of the ch/r on the flop tbh. Just lead. As played, I'm shoving all turns. Since you didn't tell us what it was I am assuming you feel the same.

Erg - I typed this up after a 7h session sorry about the blank turn card which was the 4h.

I am trying to edit it but I can't find the button for the life of me. I'm thinkin about it and for all of the reasons Minh mentioned I agree with the c/c flop. Interesting the WVH says to lead. Can we bet call flop if raised? (I guess we're probably beat and have to turn to pot odds in this case).

No, I don't think you can profitably bet/call. Someone's stack-off range on this type board for 300bb is super strong and 90%+ of the time going to be at minimum a set like 66/1010/QQ, although it's much more likely to be a made flush. You have pretty bad equity against that range. AQo I'm fine bet/folding, but with the nut flush draw in our hand, we don't want to get blown off our equity if we are already behind OTF. So I think check-calling is better, and checking also opens up their bluffing range.

Totally standard to bet this flop in a live game. No Qx is folding, Kd is calling, KJ is calling, KdJx is maybe shipping it. We came to the flop with an SPR of ~5 and flopped TPTK with a redraw to the nuts. If someone flopped a flush or set we still have decent equity. Bet/GII all day in a live 1/2 game.

Also, it is going to be extremely rare that someone bluffs in this bloated pot in a live 1/2 game, especially in this spot since we hold the only potential card they may bluff with (As). So checking to induce bluffs is very unrealistic

You are overthinking here Minh, this isn't online. People are very bad and love to call, especially after putting that much in pre and catching a piece of the flop.

FWIW, 3bet waayyyy more pre if you want fold equity, which you need with AQo. Make it ~$60 to go pre.

Great thanks IPlay, I think that makes sense (bet/GII) if we choose to bet. Bet calling doesn't seem like an option here given the stacks we would be left with. Against raises we are either way ahead of any Ks bluff, flipping against QT, and not dead against TT. This particular villain has been a little bluffy and I just can't stomach bet-folding here in the case that he has anything but sets (which he has to).

In sum it looks like the bet/GII line and the check call line both seem preferable to the one that I took for reasons that both of you mentioned. The only thing I disagree with is bet/folding against this villain. Thanks for the detailed advice guys.

goodf play !

muie steaua

Metsdude396 said:

So IPlay and WVH, are we bet/folding or bet/GII? Bet calling doesn't seem like an option here given the stacks we would be left with. I imagine that we have to be bet/GII here. Against raises we are either way ahead of any Ks bluff, flipping against QT, and not dead against TT. This particular villain has been a little bluffy and I just can't stomach bet-folding here in the case that he has anything but sets (which he has to).

In sum it looks like the bet/GII line and the check call line both seem preferable to the one that I took for reasons that both of you mentioned. The only thing I disagree with is bet/folding against this villain. Thanks for the detailed advice guys.

Click to expand...

I said bet/GII .

I think the most important part of this hand is pre. In a live game I think you are basically juicing up this pot with your 3 bet sizing and it is not going to get enough folds pre like you need with AQ.

I also don't get why you think the only option is that you are getting raised if you bet flop. Worse will call here that won't call on a lot of turns they deem scary.

Whoops IPlay I just saw that and edited my post. You're too quick! For pre-flop sizing I definitely want to generate folds like you said but I was kind of going with the common idea of 3x plus 1x for each limper. I tacked on another x for good measure, but I agree that it wasn't enough. 55-60 seems like a good amount.

As for villain's reaction, it wasn't that I only think he is raising me. It's just that it'd give me the toughest situation. If he calls a bet of $100 on flop we are left with an interesting scenario. He would have around 450 left and the pot would be $342.

Say it blanks. Does he call another bet with worse? Ehhhh probably not too much right? Here we can check-call? He might bet his Qx for value from my possible flush draws and I can't think that bets mean that we are beat.

Say it's an Ace or spade. Weird spot. I know this is super theoretical now but I think learning in poker is about this sort of thing. Im really not sure what to do in this scenario though. Thoughts?

+1 more for being OOP and +1 more because it is a live 1/2 game and people don't like to fold and maybe another +1 because we are so deep we don't want baby pocket pairs to set mine against us and if they do, give them the worst price possible.

If we are called on flop we can lead turn ~$150 and just jam rivers and most 1/2 villains will feel committed to these small bets with this large of a pot and you will be surprised at how light they will call down with these milking bets. Or x/jamming turn is always an option since it is the best way to GII with these awkward stack sizes(With only a 1.2 PSB x/calling is meh because we can never fold rivers and villain should never bluff rivers with a 1/3rd PSB) and if you think villain is capable of stabbing after what looks like you shut down. It is also fine if villain check backs turn with our hand for obvious reasons.

All in all AQo sucks in these spots live unless you are willing to play a big pot with a marginal hand because flatting in the SB kind of sucks and people are not going to fold enough when you 3 bet and you are going to play a bloated pot OOP with a hand that is usually making Top Pair at best. I would say this is one of the most nutted flops you can make with this hand and you need to be prepared to get it in if you take this line pre.