200 NLHE Full Ring: $ : AK on broadway board

J

jms

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Game is NLHE 2/2 live in a casino.
We sit in the SB with AK off

Pre: 3 limpers, Button raises to 12, we call, BB folds, limpers called.

We go 5 players to the flop.

Flop (62) AhKhTx
Hero bets 38, UTG raises allin 48, Button reraises 124 with around 200 behind, and we have 400ish behind.

Villain on Button is playing rather wide range, but does not usually go out of line alot making crazy raises with marginal hands postflop

Other than with AK off we probably should have reraised preflop from SB, what should we do here on the flop?
 
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mikeisthebestever

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If you are telling me he can have all the combos of QJ preflop, than he should also have A 10, AJ, AQ, etc, hands that you are in good shape against. I would probably shove as played, I don't think he would fold for 200 more with anything
 
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jms

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In the end, I actually folded my hand faced up, and they both showed QJ Offsuit for a flopped set. Turn came directly a K, which would've made me a full house.

Fellow players said I should've called to see the turn and try make my full house, however, I think it's better to either shove or fold in that spot.

I was just wondering considering the villain stack whether it is better to shove or to fold here?
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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I dont really play live but i dont like the flat pre id make it like $35 and if the Btn comes back over the top we can consider folding that deep. But ye with all the limpers and dead money in the pot i dont want to go 5 way to the flop i want to thin the field or pick it up pre uncontested. And i wouldnt call to try and fill up either i think you made a very solid and good fold because i would assume villain wouldn't play AQ AJ or AT this way it seems a bad line for those hands to take.

Vs KK+,TT you have around 12% equity ,and Vs KK+,TT,QJs,QJo around17% equity , if you add AKs AKo you have 25% equity which you chop with. So id estimate your equity somewhere between 10% and 35% once you account for some possible AQ AJ AT. With 10% of the higher end of the equity scale being chops with AK. And also with basically zero fold equity so it's a really bad spot to be in imo. So when you wiegh everything all up your actual raw equity for this spot is right around the 20%-25% mark with 0% fold equity for this specific spot.
 
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