$200 NLHE Full Ring: AA hand great flop, uh turn action?

Probably a pretty trivial spot.

Live $1-$3 game, villain is unknown but likely to be pretty aggressive and good as he is the friend of a very good aggressive player.

Action:
Straddle for $15, Villain raises UTG+1 to $35, I raise to $85 with

It folds to villain and he calls. Stack sizes: He had $350 to start the hand and I have him covered:

(pot $189) Flop:
He checks, I think a minute and bet $75. He calls $75.

(pot $339) Turn:
He shoves all-in for $190...

Against a range of QQ+,66,33,AQs,KQs,AQo,KQo, you'll win 37% of the time (If we add KcJc to that range, you will then only win 36.5% of the time)

WOW. uhm calling off 190 to win 529, you need to win 36% of the time.

So it depends on your range here, but I'd call. I can see either move being justified though.

that's hilarious, I'm glad I started this thread.

I did two different range estimations....

one had me at 80% and the other had me at 63%

would like to see more

yeah my range was about as strong as it can be. I didn't include any mid PP or other flushes though, either.

Uh, snap?

yeah i was thinking he hardly ever has a Q here and card has a range that's Q-heavy. I could be really wrong about him not having a Q very often though so I'd like to see some more ranges of what people put him on.

baudib1 said:

yeah i was thinking he hardly ever has a Q here and card has a range that's Q-heavy. I could be really wrong about him not having a Q very often though so I'd like to see some more ranges of what people put him on.

Click to expand...

Does it matter? We have outs to a boat and a flush, and we're getting 2.8:1! We have 3.4:1 equity if he has AQ exactly, and this is a big pot. I don't fold overpairs in big pots.

I call, we could well be behind but have plenty of outs if we are

Why the small flop bet ? You hoping to induce a shove ? Really you should be going for the ~$125 mark imo.

tenbob said:

Why the small flop bet ? You hoping to induce a shove ? Really you should be going for the ~$125 mark imo.

Click to expand...

Betting 125 would be kinda silly, considering villain has only $265 behind.

Plus, we have the nut draw and the best overpair in what is essentially a 4-bet pot. Less than half pot seems okay here. What's your rationale for betting more? Just the fact that clubs on the turn kill our action?

Club turn completely kills most of our value from tp type hands that live donks hate folding . Meh ive gotten paid here more often that not in spots like this from hands like KQ/KJ/AQ even when i shove.

tenbob said:

Club turn completely kills most of our value from tp type hands that live donks hate folding . Meh ive gotten paid here more often that not in spots like this from hands like KQ/KJ/AQ even when i shove.

Click to expand...

Oh yeah, I'd never expect a Q to fold. Shoving's a line I'm okay with, but betting $125 just doesn't seem to accomplish either goal (he can't think he has fold equity, and we don't get max value when a club hits on the turn).

if villain has a hand it should be easy to get stacks in betting 1/4 to 1/3 every street or even by checking one street.

Do you think the small bet on the flop weakens our perceived range to make him spazz all pairs?