$200 NLHE Full Ring: AA facing river bet in live game

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baudib1

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$200 NL HE Full Ring: AA facing river bet in live game

Try to put villain on a hand for me.

Villain in this hand is unknown, he just recently got to the game. He seems pretty fundamentally sound, which made his preflop limp-call really odd, I could not put him on a hand.

He limps UTG for $2, UTG+1 calls. I raise to $25 with AsAd. Everyone folds, but UTG calls, UTG+1 folds. I have about $500 and he has $400 to start the hand.

Flop: Jc 9s 6s
He checks, I bet $35, he calls.

Turn is the 8h
He checks, I check
Villain seemed like the flop, I'm not sure if QT or 98 are in his preflop calling range, but I thought it was time to slow down. Comments? I suppose I should try to protect against the flush draw but with the As in my hand, I'm not sure how many flush draws are in his range other than KsQs/KsJs, and really I'd expect him to check-raise with that or KsJs.

River is the 8c
Villain bets $100. I was thinking that if villain checked the river, I was going to bet $100 myself. I think there's a decent chance he has me beat, but I suppose it's a must call as my hand is underrepresented -- it looks a lot like AK and the flush draws missed.

Is raising the river an option?
 
Makwa

Makwa

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I would call him down, he could have AJo, or busted draw and is trying to steal... a raise is asking for trouble because A8s may not be out of his range...
 
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Villain's likely UTG limp/calling range of a large PFR heads up is mostly pocket pairs unless we have some reason to believe otherwise.

Villains range once we get to the river is a slowplayed QQ KK, Js full and 9s full most of the time. Maybe 6s if we think he'd call that low There's twice as many combos of QQ/KK as there are of JJ/99 or 4:3 if we include 6s as well, so whether or not we raise the river should be determined by how often villain will call a raise with QQ or KK. @ 1/2 live stakes, I'd estimate quite often, so I raise here. If I don't believe QQ or KK are calling a raise at least 50% of the time, OR I believe villain is likelyto reraise QQ or KK themajority of the time here preflop rather than get cute (hence their range is skewed more to boats) I'd call.

If we have some indication villain likes to play pots, we need to expand his range tremendously beyond PPs and include bad calls such as KJs AJo QT, etc in which case I would just call the bet since villains range is now much wider, unless villain calls down too light (i/e would call a raise with KJ or something). However usually when someone limp calls UTG 12.5 BBs (yes I play live and I know these raises aren't THAT unusual) heads up, they usually have a pair in their hand.

I would call him down, he could have AJo, or busted draw and is trying to steal... a raise is asking for trouble because A8s may not be out of his range...

Villain would have to be pretty awful to limp call A8s for 12.5 BBs HU OOP and then call a 2/3rds pot bet with no pair no draw. I think we can safely eliminate A8s from his range
 
doops

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I'd put him on a low PP preflop. He could have hit on the flop --6s? -- but playing a little tricky and worrying about flush and str8. The check-call on the flop then makes sense. The river bet, when he fills up his boat, could be valid. Or it could be that he figures you missed and he's betting his 2 pair.

Alternatively, his AK missed and he's looking at your turn check and thinking he could have it.

I wouldn't be raising the river myself. Something is up here. The patterns are uncomfortable.
 
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baudib1

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Two questions:

1. If he limped QQ/KK UTG, wouldn't he be looking to reraise?
2. If he flopped a set doesn't he have to bet the turn?

I agree with zydomb's range and I don't think he can show up with A8 here, especially since I have the Ace of Spades so he can't continue past the flop.
 
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Zybomb

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Two questions:

1. If he limped QQ/KK UTG, wouldn't he be looking to reraise?
2. If he flopped a set doesn't he have to bet the turn?

1. Yes that may have been his original intention, but once he saw it raised and folded around to him he may decide to get cute since it appears it's going to be heads up (or at worst 3 handed if last player calls too)

2. He could be going for a c/r on the turn
 
bgomez89

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I bet the flop harder. I dont know how good people are that the 1/2 you play but when I go they'll pretty much call anything with suited connectors, QT, JT, etc so you need to eliminate all those draws. Definitely agree with the check on the turn as I believe that 8 could have hit him somehow. I call the river bet since he might have a busted FD, SD, or or Jack. If he does have an 8, whatever i think you might be good here
 
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baudib1

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I checked behind because we're so deep and I couldn't get a handle on the range of hands I'm looking at. I actually thought about checking the flop to make it look like I missed but then he goes ballistic with any number of hands on the turn -- it would have been a lot easier if this had been a 3-bet pot.

I still think the check on the turn makes my hand look like AK so I think he could be value betting a lot of one-pair hands here. I stoved a few ranges and it looks like I'm definitely ahead so calling is necessarily; raising is a bit thin IMO.

Interesting note: If he can call $25 OOP with QT/JT, then he can have J9 as well, so the running 8s helps against that part of his range.
 
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baudib1

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Results, if interested:

I told the guy he probably has a boat but I have to call because you probably think I have Ace-King. He smiled and I called and he flipped QQ (the turn 8, which I instinctively didn't like, did in fact give him more outs). Good call by Zydomb, I didn't have QQ/KK in his range at all there, was just hoping he was value betting AJ/KJ/J9/TT or something.
 
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