Villain's likely UTG limp/calling range of a large PFR heads up is mostly pocket pairs unless we have some reason to believe otherwise.
Villains range once we get to the river is a slowplayed QQ KK, Js full and 9s full most of the time. Maybe 6s if we think he'd call that low There's twice as many combos of QQ/KK as there are of JJ/99 or 4:3 if we include 6s as well, so whether or not we raise the river should be determined by how often villain will call a raise with QQ or KK. @ 1/2 live stakes, I'd estimate quite often, so I raise here. If I don't believe QQ or KK are calling a raise at least 50% of the time, OR I believe villain is likelyto reraise QQ or KK themajority of the time here preflop rather than get cute (hence their range is skewed more to boats) I'd call.
If we have some indication villain likes to play pots, we need to expand his range tremendously beyond PPs and include bad calls such as KJs AJo QT, etc in which case I would just call the bet since villains range is now much wider, unless villain calls down too light (i/e would call a raise with KJ or something). However usually when someone limp calls UTG 12.5 BBs (yes I play live and I know these raises aren't THAT unusual) heads up, they usually have a pair in their hand.
Originally Posted by Makwa
I would call him down, he could have AJo, or busted draw and is trying to steal... a raise is asking for trouble because A8s may not be out of his range...
Villain would have to be pretty awful to limp call A8s for 12.5 BBs HU OOP and then call a 2/3rds pot bet with no pair no draw. I think we can safely eliminate A8s from his range