$200 NLHE Full Ring: AA against paired flop multi-way live

A

adonson

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 26, 2012
Total posts
6
Chips
0
Live 1/2 game, the usual: lots of limpers, usually five, sometimes even seven, a few rocks but most of the table is playing 40-50 % range preflop limps. Standard raises preflop are 3 to 6BB, with an occasional 7BB, few 3 bets. There is little respect for these raises, one almost always get callers , often several, even when the raise is 7BB. I am playing much tighter than the others, about 25 VP$P, raising 5 to 6BB with premium hands, limping in position with high cards, suited connectors, and suited aces when the pot is limped by two or more players. No one is paying attention to my strategy of limping only with marginal hands and raising the premiums. I am playing for value.

This should be an easy game, but I am not drawing any monsters. I've a couple of bad beats and a few brain farts. I am the short stack because I've limited myself $400 of BIs. Hey, I have a family to support.

UGT: $80
HJ: $250
CO (Hero): $92
B: $250

UGT calls $2, folds to the HJ, who calls, in the CO, hero has

:ad4::ah4:

and raises to $12. Button calls, blinds fold, UGT calls, HJ calls. Great. Pot is $51. Flop comes

:9s4::9c4::qh4:

UGT bets $10, HJ calls, pot is $71

Hero with stack of $80) ???

My thinking:

UGT: Based on preflop limp/call, I figure he is making a value bet / semi bluff with 10J; a value bet with KQ, QJ; less likely but possible, AQ (there are only two aces left), Q10, K9; or unlikely but possible 8-9, 9-10. He would have raised preflop with any high pocket pair.

HJ: I'm more worried about him. He could be on any of the hands as the UGT, but with the 3 to 1 odds on the preflop call, he is more likely than the UGT to have K9, 8-9, or 9-10. But heck, there are only two nines left, so he's more likely to have 10J, KQ, or QJ.

Button: Same as above, but could also have a high pocket pair.

I'm not going to fold $10 into a $71 pot with an overpair. I don't want to call because my hand isn't likely to improve, and there are a lot of cards I don't want to see. I'm probably crushed with a Q, and a K, J, 10, 8 put people on made straights or straight draws. A raise to 2/3 pot makes me pot committed, and a half-pot raise to $35 gives the drawers the correct odds to call.

So should I shove? I could get a call with Qx, the most likely hand for UGT and HJ. A shove also induces the draws to fold. But shove could represent QQ and, because no one is really paying attention, 9x. Could a shove induce 9x to fold? I don't know. Would 8-9 fold to me thinking I have a higher 9x? Probably not given my preflop raise. Am I worried about 9x? Remember this is a very loose game with many calling stations.
 
Jblocher1

Jblocher1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 20, 2012
Total posts
2,645
Chips
0
I'm shoving here. Original raise looks like a blocking bet. It's small in comparison to the pot. Jam over the raise. U don't want to continue this hand with multiple opponents. Thin the field with the shove. If one of these guys has a 9... That's poker. But the guy who flat called def doesn't have a 9 because he would have raised and the original raiser probably has a queen.
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

Stacks & Stacks
Loyaler
Joined
Feb 7, 2008
Total posts
8,250
Awards
1
Chips
124
Raise more pre.

Shove this flop. There will be so many more hands other than 9x that will call.
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2013
Total posts
1,527
Chips
0
I think the likelihood you're good is like 45%-ish, but you're up vs 2 people who will call you down with WAY worse, and jamming gives you slightly under 2:1.

Ergo, jam.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
No, 9x is never folding because QQ is never shoving. well, almost never. I wouldn't. I'd want to keep TT-JJ and JQ-AQ in the hand. You don't have QQ but the same logic applies. If you shove you'll get called by any 9 and AQ but weaker Q's and pairs might go away. This is a classic WAWB situation and with $80 left and a $70 pot you're not folding here under any circumstances. In the way behind situations you can just write off your $80, but in the way ahead situations you want to get every last penny in the pot. The way to do that is not to shove.

The $10 bet could be an attempt to induce a bluff with a monster or it could be a weak hand testing the waters but it never represents air. We're not concerned about the strong hands, it's the weak ones that we want to extract value from. Personally, I'm thrilled that the CO called the $10 bet. His range is very similar to the raisers but without the monsters and there's a real good chance that they could be holding blockers to each other. There's no need to get fancy here. Bet $30 on the flop and get the rest in on the turn, nobody is folding top pair or a draw with 4:1 odds.
 
Abedin120

Abedin120

Rock Star
Platinum Level
Joined
Sep 3, 2012
Total posts
316
Chips
0
You should call if you're afraid that someone of them has QQ or maybe 9x, or maybe re-raise to $30, so someone of them go fold. However, you shouldn't go fold, because what if there will be an Ace on the turn or on the river and why if no one of them has 9 or QQ. Maybe they had AQ or KK or KQ.
If I am in your place I will call to see the turn.
 
drdunks

drdunks

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 3, 2012
Total posts
42
Chips
0
I'd shove it in because like you said, there's a lot of nasty cards that could come on the turn where you'll be committed if you raise. At this point its VERY unlikely some one has the 9 and a pair of Queens should nearly always raise here. If they do have a 9 then there's nothing you can really do, it just SUCKS lol.
 
H

Henreiman

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 17, 2008
Total posts
560
Chips
0
I honestly don't see a shove here because you're really only getting called by a big queen or a 9. I'd prefer to pop it to 35ish to keep J10 alive. 9 is just a cooler if he has it, can't do much to avoid getting stacked even if you just call down.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
I honestly don't see a shove here because you're really only getting called by a big queen or a 9. I'd prefer to pop it to 35ish to keep J10 alive. 9 is just a cooler if he has it, can't do much to avoid getting stacked even if you just call down.

I doubt JT folds the flop with > 2to 1 odds and a good chance their jacks and tens are live I could see them folding the turn once they miss though.
Also can't see any pair folding when the flop began with a pot size pretty much the same as our stack.

Villains want a cheap flop and we block the near dead overcards we'd like to come along for the ride. Instead there's just two villains with 4-8 outs each (or 8-16 outs between them) getting a cheap$10 pot and implied odds that amount to our full stack. The underpairs we could stack now will also find plenty of turn cards to shutdown on.

Against one villain capable of bluffing I could stomach a free card and the money it loses us when villain catches up if I can expect airballs to bluff their stacks off further down the line, two villain reduces the probability of bluffing, doubles our chance of being drawn out on and the minbet + call vastly reduces the equityless air we'd like to continue.
 
Deco

Deco

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2009
Total posts
2,544
Chips
0
Raising to $35, I dislike more then flatting, it combines the disadvantages of both plays for a 3rd even worse option imo.

Villains will never bluff their equityless air but just dump it. Yet we allow the hands with equity 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 odds (depending on the number of callers) with our stack worth of implied odds to draw to the hands with equity. Not to mention it probably looks stronger than a shove.
 
M

micromoi

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 26, 2010
Total posts
502
Chips
0
he bet 10$ to a pot of 50$ thats pretty bad it looks like a check, just raise to 50$ knowing that you are commited to it.
 
S

ScottishMatt

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 20, 2012
Total posts
2,394
Chips
0
Shove. For all the reasons Deco articulated.
 
Organize a Home Poker Game
Top