$200 NLHE Full Ring: AA against paired flop multi-way live
Live 1/2 game, the usual: lots of limpers, usually five, sometimes even seven, a few rocks but most of the table is playing 40-50 % range preflop limps. Standard raises preflop are 3 to 6BB, with an occasional 7BB, few 3 bets. There is little respect for these raises, one almost always get callers , often several, even when the raise is 7BB. I am playing much tighter than the others, about 25 VP$P, raising 5 to 6BB with premium hands, limping in position with high cards, suited connectors, and suited aces when the pot is limped by two or more players. No one is paying attention to my strategy of limping only with marginal hands and raising the premiums. I am playing for value.
This should be an easy game, but I am not drawing any monsters. I've a couple of bad beats and a few brain farts. I am the short stack because I've limited myself $400 of BIs. Hey, I have a family to support.
CO (Hero): $92
UGT calls $2, folds to the HJ, who calls, in the CO, hero has
and raises to $12. Button calls, blinds fold, UGT calls, HJ calls. Great. Pot is $51. Flop comes
UGT bets $10, HJ calls, pot is $71
Hero with stack of $80) ???
UGT: Based on preflop limp/call, I figure he is making a value bet / semi bluff with 10J; a value bet with KQ, QJ; less likely but possible, AQ (there are only two aces left), Q10, K9; or unlikely but possible 8-9, 9-10. He would have raised preflop with any high pocket pair.
HJ: I'm more worried about him. He could be on any of the hands as the UGT, but with the 3 to 1 odds
on the preflop call, he is more likely than the UGT to have K9, 8-9, or 9-10. But heck, there are only two nines left, so he's more likely to have 10J, KQ, or QJ.
Button: Same as above, but could also have a high pocket pair.
I'm not going to fold $10 into a $71 pot with an overpair. I don't want to call because my hand isn't likely to improve, and there are a lot of cards I don't want to see. I'm probably crushed with a Q, and a K, J, 10, 8 put people on made straights or straight draws. A raise to 2/3 pot makes me pot committed, and a half-pot raise to $35 gives the drawers the correct odds to call.
So should I shove? I could get a call with Qx, the most likely hand for UGT and HJ. A shove also induces the draws to fold. But shove could represent QQ and, because no one is really paying attention, 9x. Could a shove induce 9x to fold? I don't know. Would 8-9 fold to me thinking I have a higher 9x? Probably not given my preflop raise. Am I worried about 9x? Remember this is a very loose game with many calling stations.