$200 NLHE Full Ring: A little math help please

S

Six Hurdles

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This was a live game

Hero Utg AKc. $447
MP. $100
Button >$447

Hero raises to 12
MP calls
Button raises to 30
Hero calls
MP calls

flop:
10c Jc Qh

Hero bets 65 into 90
MP folds
Button raises to 150
Hero shoves
Button snap calls

Turn Ks
river 10h

Button has KhKd

When I plugged this into my phone it said he was 6.9% on the flop. I don't know how that could possibly be true. I'd it considering a chop a win? Even if it is, aren't we like 11% to chop? Seems weird to me. I must be missing some crucial factor?
 
duggs

duggs

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he has backdoor boat outs. and he only gets half the pot from chops, so half of 11%
 
pocketehs

pocketehs

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fwiw i dont donk the flop when i bink the nuts
 
S

Six Hurdles

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Player specific choice. This guy never raises pre without premium. I figured him for AA or KK. He also overvalues over pairs. I could have let him bet, but I thought this was the best way to get in the midst money with him. I thought there was an almost zero chance he wouldn't at least call.
 
Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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bad beat man
ace poker drills equity calc has you 93.33% to win on the flop
 
F

FAOMaalik

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Unfortunately poker plays past the flop. You did nothing wrong but Poker is a cruel mistress.

You played the hand well though it's small compensation for him filling up.
 
H

Henreiman

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Yeah his increased equity comes from the chop, some programs don't handle that split well.
 
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