$200 NLHE Full Ring: $ : 1/3 NL Live, Tough River Spot w/ Set

H

Henreiman

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-Sorry for the bad format-

Game is 1/3. Effective stacks are ~$400. Hero has been playing solid throughout the night, including calling off 2x river bluff by Villain with second pair. Villain mostly playing pretty loose/passive (likes to c-bet, check, bluff river).

Hero is UTG+1 and is dealt :5s4::5h4:. Hero limps.

One limp, Villain limps on button, BB pops to 15. Hero & Villain call.

(Pot $45) Flop: :4c4::5c4::7c4:

BB bets out 25, Hero raises to 85. Villain flats 85, BB folds.

(Pot $240) Turn: :8s4:

Hero checks, Villain bets 125. Hero tanks for a minute (probably visibly distressed, unfortunately, counting pot odds) calls.

(Pot $490) River: :10d4:

Hero checks, Villain bets 125, Hero???

A few more things of note: on the river bluffs, Villain had a tendency to make them slightly small (often smaller than previous bets). Also, Villain has recently played a hand with hero where he called twice w/ flush draw then bet river when it came (Hero folded nut straight)
 
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themosthigh

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On the turn I think I'd rather bet fold than check/call. The river is tempting but I dunno. A lot of these live donks bet the same size on all streets for value which would make sense here. Curious is this how you always play sets on monotone flops? I always freeze up on these flops with sets and become passive.
 
dgiharris

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There is an adage in poker,

big hand big pot small hand small pot

I know I know, we flopped a set, but FFS we flopped a set on the wettest board in the world...

Just call the flop bet, pot control, hope the board pairs by river, and then shove.

The problem here is your flop raise. Once you raise the flop, pot control is lost and now you are going to be playing for a big pot with a hand that has turned into a Reverse Implied Odds hand.

If anything, your flop raise is going to push out most of villain's air meaning that you are pushing out the hands that you beat and ensuring that you only get called by hands that either beat you or have decent equity against you.

By flatting flop you keep in more of V's air while simultaneously controlling the size of the pot.

As played, river is a crying call :(

You're getting close to 4:1 on your money, only need to be right roughly 20% of the time here for a call to be profitable...
 
Beanfacekilla

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There is an adage in poker,

big hand big pot small hand small pot

I know I know, we flopped a set, but FFS we flopped a set on the wettest board in the world...

Just call the flop bet, pot control, hope the board pairs by river, and then shove.

The problem here is your flop raise. Once you raise the flop, pot control is lost and now you are going to be playing for a big pot with a hand that has turned into a Reverse Implied Odds hand.

If anything, your flop raise is going to push out most of villain's air meaning that you are pushing out the hands that you beat and ensuring that you only get called by hands that either beat you or have decent equity against you.

By flatting flop you keep in more of V's air while simultaneously controlling the size of the pot.

As played, river is a crying call :(

You're getting close to 4:1 on your money, only need to be right roughly 20% of the time here for a call to be profitable...

Very well said.... I agree.

FWIW I strongly believe you are beat here, based on villain's line.

In this particular spot, with the info I have now, I would C/F the river.

Just my opinion, and nothing more.
 
dgiharris

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On the turn I think I'd rather bet fold than check/call. The river is tempting but I dunno. A lot of these live donks bet the same size on all streets for value which would make sense here. Curious is this how you always play sets on monotone flops? I always freeze up on these flops with sets and become passive.


Bet/folding turn would be a decent line if we were pretty confident V was weak-tight and wouldn't jam us with anything less than the near nuts. Basically, a bet/fold would only make sense if our bet was more of a blocking bet and Villain was the type to not push over the top of our bet.

Truth is, we have too much equity to want to bet/fold. We want to draw because if we hit we can stack straights and flushes which should be a large part of V's range.

So the question is, "what is the best way to draw?"

If a blocking bet is the best way (i.e. villain is more of a station and/or passive) then absolutely we should bet 1/3 to 1/2 pot as a blocking bet. OP does say V is loose passive so we should be able to blocking bet this V to ensure we get the correct odds to draw... Also, its a continuation of our flop raise and should be fairly successful.

On the flip side, I wanted to add that I would NOT try to push V out with a big turn bet. Once he calls the flop raise, writing is on the wall V is along for the ride to the river...
 
Deco

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I play everything bar preflop the same.
The flop if villain has a flush we've ample equity, our raise also charges lone clubs and straight draws as well as crushes twopair.

The turn is bad but we can still call cuz we've 9 good outs ahnd still beat flush draws.

The river I'd be folding if it weren't for this size, as it stands we're beat the vast majority of the time but given we onl;y need to be good around 16% of the time I call as we'll see the occasional Ac draw or 44.
 
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