$200 NLHE Full Ring: $1-$3 live, weird river

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baudib1

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Action:

I have :as4: :kd4: UTG and make it $13 in a $1-$3 live game.
I have just under $400 to start the hand. I'm new to this game and everyone is pretty much unknown. FWIW I've been caught C-R semi-bluffing on a FD where I lost a $250 pot earlier.

Note on villain: He is youngish, seemingly professional (non-poker) guy. Has about $700 and seems vaguely competent. Only showdown was in a limped pot where he made a big raise on the flop on a two-tone board and shut down after flush hit. He folded to a river bet and showed 62o for bottom 2 pair. After some discussion he said "There's no hand I'm folding on the button for $3."
He calls from CO this hand.

3 callers
Flop: :kh4: :2c4: :7c4:

I bet $31, 1 fold, 1 call, 1 fold.

Turn:(pot $113) :3s4:
I bet $75, he calls.

River: (pot $263) :kc4:
?????
 
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bnasp2

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I would go check/call here.
With raise, he will mostly call you with flush, full-house etc. So there is not much value in such bet. That he has last king with smaller kicker is very small chance.

With check, you open reasonable range of blufs or semi-blufs for him. And with nuts, he might just raise half-pot (not all-in) and you will save some money.
 
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baudib1

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C/C is probably the nut worst line. What hands does he turn into bluffs?
 
Matt Vaughan

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So gross. Do you have any idea what his range looks like here in terms of Kx vs. FD's that get there? Cause I can easily see him doing this with KQ and maybe KJ. And I'm guessing he doesn't go insane with SCs? So he doesn't have toooo many FD combos, though I'm a bit concerned about Axcc. It's b/c if he shoves KJ over, if not, it's b/f I think, but what is your stack size at the end? Stack size makes it really awkward.
 
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baudib1

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Hard to say. I have around a pot-size bet left on the river.

I think he is at least somewhat playing the player here. It's possible we can discount some FDs from his range because he might raise them, but probably not. I wouldn't in his shoes.

If he perceives me as playing FDs aggressively in this spot he might be calling down with pocket pairs 88-JJ and obviously he'll have Kx hands, maybe even a few more than you'd expect (given the 62o hand).
 
Jillychemung

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Most of the time it'll be a check/fold for me here as most likely they'll have the flush. I might make a LOL bet of $50 to rep the nuts but this villain doesn't seem like the type to hero fold non-nut flushes.
 
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In this position, you could just C/C. Also, you could make a small value bet and hope he doesn't raise. If he raises, you know he has to have hit the flush on the river.
 
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baudib1

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What exactly do you think the guy is bluffing with on the river? I am pretty sure he is checking back every hand we beat. So C/C is out of the question.
 
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ScottishMatt

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River is gross. I hate bet/folding and as you said he probably isn't betting anything you beat. If he calls a half pot bet then he probably calls a shove as well. I don't think he folds his trips here, not considering that he knows you aren't shying away from bluffing. It might depend on whether you feel he is capable of hero calling you here with less than a K here. I think your only options are to value bet pretty small or shove. I could live with a B/F of 90 I guess. I think shoving might be higher EV but more variance. It could come down to your image, how long ago was the hand you bluffed and can you feign tilt?
 
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kanselau

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If hes competent like you think , then he knows hes not getting the right odds to call that turn with FD , if he has a set then most probably raising the turn . He probably has K10+ 88-JJ , perhaps pair and FD(7c8c, 6c7c .
I think if you bet around $90-$115/Fold to raise . We might get value from K10+, folds from 88-JJ , call from Flush , raise from book. Then we are setting the price.
If we Check villain is betting his flush and book but it will cost us more than $115 IMO + villain is checking everything we beat .
So Bet/Fold for me if we are ahead we might get hero call with Kx and if behind , we loose min.
 
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Aleksei

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If he can hero fold bottom 2 and freeze up after a flush he's probably kind of a nit. If you bet he MIGHT call you with a worse K, but I doubt it. I'd just go C/C and hope he thinks you had like 2p and the river froze you up.

Kind of an ugly spot though. vs that kind of player the bulk of your value will be in exploiting his excessive folding frequency.
 
duggs

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given your image i want to jam and let him bluff catch.
 
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baudib1

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If he can hero fold bottom 2 and freeze up after a flush he's probably kind of a nit.
really, I'm pretty loose and I wouldn't limp 62o from the BTN.
given your image i want to jam and let him bluff catch.
Pretty sexy but I didn't seriously consider this. you're a sicko

I think if you bet around $90-$115/Fold to raise

I bet $110 and he TANKED before calling. I won. He said, "I didn't think you'd bet a king there."
 
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kanselau

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I bet $110 and he TANKED before calling. I won. He said, "I didn't think you'd bet a king there."
LOL if your not betting a set , then your betting the flush or the book so why is he calling ? Are you folding if he jams? , did he show what he had , must be 88-JJ
I bet this guy turns out to a bit of a goose , with the ripper comments , did he loose his money in the end.
 
Four Dogs

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Them's some pretty hefty bet's to be calling on a draw. Still, you're both fairly deep and if he thinks you're a piniata he might think it's worth it. My usual instinct is to bet/fold to a shove but in this case I like the check/call. I'd hate to see a King check back but I think he's folding most kings to a third bet anyway. But, if he was any good (or thinks he is) this would be a perfect spot for him to turn a weak King into a bluff. You can't fold here and check/calling might be the only way to get any further value from you're hand.

Just for fun, lets say you raised UTG with Queens. King type hands would become a greater part of his range. Of course he'd look you up if you bet out but he should fold a bare king often enough to a river check/raise bluff to make it profitable. For the record, nobody at this level will EVER check raise bluff the river.

Just read the outcome. If he doesn't have a flush draw, then what is he calling 3 streets with that he he wouldn't have reraised preflop? What hand worse than a king bets three streets OOP? Very silly but all to common. For the record i'd still go with check/call.
 
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duggs

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LOL if your not betting a set , then your betting the flush or the book so why is he calling ? Are you folding if he jams? , did he show what he had , must be 88-JJ
I bet this guy turns out to a bit of a goose , with the ripper comments , did he loose his money in the end.

because it makes his range bluff heavier if he doesnt make thin value bets.
 
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baudib1

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Really surprised how many people would c/c here. I think it's just terrible. I don't think I'd have a c/c range in this spot; maybe AA if he bet really small, but mostly I'd be c/f AA and worse.

I think any reasonably competent/thinking player is going to realize my checking range on this river is going to be strongish.

For the record I didn't think this is a thin value bet at all but I think duggs' point stands (88 would be thin).
Them's some pretty hefty bet's to be calling on a draw.

Do people really fold FDs to 2/3 pot bets on the turn? I find that surprising.
 
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ScottishMatt

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If we have evidence of him shutting down when the flush comes in, then it makes no sense to X/C because he obviously is only going to bet a flush. X/C is just out of the question. On the other hand we have a bluffy image so we get called wider than is standard for him here. Like I said earlier a small valuebet then fold, or just shove it in. I don't think a shove gets called by 88-JJ but if he calls 110 with 99 then he calls a shove with KT. I'm not massive on thin value so I'd probably go for the valuebet/fold if I was on the spot. Either one of those lines is debatable, but X/C'ing is not.
 
Four Dogs

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Do people really fold FDs to 2/3 pot bets on the turn? I find that surprising.
Not as often as they should. In this case if the villain had been on a FD he would be getting 1.55:1 direct odds to call with 4.22:1 to catch. He'd need to make $200 more on the river when he does catch just to break even, and the pot would be $263, and you'd have to get paid off every time. It's usually pretty hard to disguise a made flush, some people might pay that off with top pair but most wouldn't. Calling a 3/4 pot size bet would be even worse.
 
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kanselau

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Do people really fold FDs to 2/3 pot bets on the turn? I find that surprising.
Why do you find this surprising, don't you fold to 2/3 pot bets on the turn when a competent player bets.
2/3 pot bet on the turn gives us bad pot odds , unless its a total fish betting and we are relying on implied odds.
Obviously fish will chase draws but this is not the case as we think villain is competent .
 
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sryImPro

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Ughhh...a similar situation happened to me online yesterday...as you said 62o limp tells you a lot so i wouldn't be surprised with anything from this player. His calls telling me he is on a flush draw so i would chek that river for sure.
 
duggs

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agree, i think a shove maximises our value tbh.
shove>bet/fold>check/fold>check/call imo
 
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kanselau

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If we have evidence of him shutting down when the flush comes in, then it makes no sense to X/C because he obviously is only going to bet a flush. X/C is just out of the question. On the other hand we have a bluffy image so we get called wider than is standard for him here. Like I said earlier a small valuebet then fold, or just shove it in. I don't think a shove gets called by 88-JJ but if he calls 110 with 99 then he calls a shove with KT. I'm not massive on thin value so I'd probably go for the valuebet/fold if I was on the spot. Either one of those lines is debatable, but X/C'ing is not.
I don't think a shove gets as many calls as a $100 bet here , so we might be loosing some value , and it def doesn't look weaker with a bet on all streets , if anything I think it smells of a monster wanting a call from a flush.
Also if villain has a monster himself we save some $$$
Bet/fold > Shove
 
duggs

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villains calling range will be largely inelastic with a perceived bluffing range.

SPR is 1, GII
 
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baudib1

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Not as often as they should. In this case if the villain had been on a FD he would be getting 1.55:1 direct odds to call with 4.22:1 to catch. He'd need to make $200 more on the river when he does catch just to break even, and the pot would be $263, and you'd have to get paid off every time. It's usually pretty hard to disguise a made flush, some people might pay that off with top pair but most wouldn't. Calling a 3/4 pot size bet would be even worse.

I may be bad at math but I'm pretty sure the pot is 188 and he's calling 75 so that's 2.5-1.
 
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