re: Poker & $200 NLHE 6-max: Weak overpair against fish - line check
Btw, it isn't like a HH like this can be answered with any sort of certainty at all, as far too much info is missing. All you can do is put forth an "answer" along with justification and a set of conditions that must be met in order for such an analysis to be valid.
You need information fold to cbet%, fold to turn cbet%, c/ring%, what types of boards that villain likes to c/r, how does villain play draws and how does this change on different board textures, villains river bluffing frequency, how light can villain vbet, bet sizing tells
, etc. etc.
Without this info it is just a somewhat educated guess as to how wide his flop peeling range is, how wide is his turn peeling range, can he vbet a hand like 88 here, can he bluff a missed draw or total junk, can he even get to river with junk.
Neither of our explanations are incorrect - i just don't believe that villain will necessarily peel flop wide and yet have a very tight turn peeling range nor do i think that villain can necessarily vbet as light as you think and i think he may be able to bluff more of his range (since i think he has more of a range that are now only bluffs).
For instance, if you put in A high hands to peel the turn as well and these hands decided to turn into a bluff on the river, the whole frequency thing you came up with would be drastically reduced. There is just no way we can be assigning individual hands to a range of villain when we have all the missing info that i said at the start, as otherwise it is nothing more than guesswork built around a framework of assumptions that may or may not be correct.
@ your last post - actually i did realise this - if he peels with random overs then a T will make up more of that range than say a K for sure but i think you overestimate how much of his range on the flop are pure overs and not stuff like flush draws, A high hands, gutshots, etc. That calculation doesn't take into account that villain is MUCH more likely to peel that flop with A4 or xdxd than with JT.