$200 NLHE 6-max: TPTK ~200bbs deep vs Odd bird - river decision

I really think this guy just decided that he was going to bluff and just went with it. He was goofy, and did make moves. He was pretty aggressive too w/ 61% over agg. He had 3-bet me a few times, once w/ 37s (by end of sesh his 3-bet was 8%). He over valued some hands as well. In my gut I really thought I should call and I was planning on just calling him down. I thought up to 70% on the river and I'm calling, but then he pots it. The hand doesn't make much sense, and the texture if great for my plan. It haunted me last night.


iPoker - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
CO: 95 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 18.18, Hands: 63)
BTN: 110 BB (VPIP: 25.49, PFR: 19.61, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 56)
SB: 166.23 BB (VPIP: 35.79, PFR: 23.16, 3Bet Preflop: 2.78, Hands: 95)
Hero (BB): 200.1 BB
UTG: 191.53 BB (VPIP: 39.36, PFR: 8.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 95)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ K♦

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, UTG raises to 12.5 BB, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠ A♦ 6♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 12.75 BB, Hero calls 12.75 BB

Turn: (51 BB, 2 players) 7♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 25.5 BB, Hero calls 25.5 BB

River: (102 BB, 2 players) Q♥
Hero checks, UTG bets 102 BB, fold

UTG wins 201 BB

Hm do you think you lose to 66% of the hands he has here? The way you describe him, I don't think so. Looks like you were trapping him and I think you should have gone through with your plan to fruition. After all, what's the point in playing the hand like this if you are going to fold to three barrels?

Does villain still have air in his range on River? Does he value pot worse then AK or are you calling hoping to chop? If these answers are no its a fold but if you think he has enough air I guess calling isnt bad. I almost feel like he he has AQ or hopes you have AQ or QQ and did the old limp reraise AA from EP

If he's just clicking buttons I don't get why were folding river.

Fair enough if it's a fish who is able to do simple things such as value bet, but if it's just a spewtard then river is a snap.

akaRobbo said:

If he's just clicking buttons I don't get why were folding river.

Fair enough if it's a fish who is able to do simple things such as value bet, but if it's just a spewtard then river is a snap.

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No, he's not just clicking buttons. He's not totally brain dead, he's just an aggressive fish. Is he aggro enough to pot bet the river, I couldn't decide. There's not really an answer, but the hand bothered me. I rarely feel that unsure by the river.

IPlay said:

Does villain still have air in his range on River? Does he value pot worse then AK or are you calling hoping to chop? If these answers are no its a fold but if you think he has enough air I guess calling isnt bad. I almost feel like he he has AQ or hopes you have AQ or QQ and did the old limp reraise AA from EP

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He's polarized to complete air, 67 or AQ/AA. I mean the runout is pretty good for me, and I don't think he's potting it w/ AK. He wasn't stupid. He played ok considering he was playing too many hands and not raising pre enough. I was expecting him to check behind on river or bet about another 1/2 pot which I'd be snap calling of course.

I think im nit folding then. This honestly looks like a line a live 1/2 player takes with AA and sometimes AQ. His stats also 100% look like a typical life fish

IPlay said:

I think im nit folding then. This honestly looks like a line a live 1/2 player takes with AA and sometimes AQ. His stats also 100% look like a typical life fish

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+1

Gotta love the bet small, bet small, bomb river line. It's so transparent that they have a monster. This is almost always a nutted hand.

MinhANguyen said:

+1

Gotta love the bet small, bet small, bomb river line. It's so transparent that they have a monster. This is almost always a nutted hand.

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Not in my experience at these stakes. A lot of time it's the complete opposite.

John A said:

Not in my experience at these stakes. A lot of time it's the complete opposite.

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If thats the case and this guy has shown up with bluffs and how under repped we are makes this a snap call?

This just looks soooo much like one of those live fish that limp too much and dont raise enough and limp raises AA from EP as a standard. Also has terrible bet sizings that, by the river puts you on an A that will call a PSB (like a live fish would). These guys are also, as you described not brain dead hut still very fishy and predictable for the most part.

I dont play these stakes online though so ill just wait around for some results

Well, I'm all about being results oriented.

Seat 6: PLR_9288222UR showed [As Qd] and won ($199)

I saw that one coming . I figured he had AA or AQ, most likely AQ, or an unlikely set that was messing around PF. Hard for case A to be out, and I think he might have gone bigger on turn with AA/set if he figured you liked the board. But AQo? I thought it'd be AQs at least haha.

I mean, it's pretty obvious that you have an strong A here. AQs or AKo/AKs; you're not really calling with anything less OOP deep. Maybe AJs if you're feeling frisky. Don't really think a lot of people would try to get someone off an A by 3-barreling, especially TPTK. Most people would station all the way down.

Can't we raise the flop and expect him to do funny things to play back?

Just read the results, I'm 2smart4u.

Why are we raising flop? If he's bluffing, we should just let him keep bluffing. Raising just folds out all his bluffs, which we profit from, and lets him continue with his monsters and stronger hands. We're letting him play perfectly against us. And how happy are you if he comes over the top over your raise? Just because they are aggro and a fish does not mean that they will not wake up with big hands. That's how maniacs get paid off, because nobody wants to believe them. 100bb deep we're definitely stacking off, but not for 200bb.

c9h13no3 said:

Can't we raise the flop and expect him to do funny things to play back?

Just read the results, I'm 2smart4u.

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Yeah, I heavily contemplated raising the turn. I likely should have. Flop, I'm not as sure about. I know he'll fire at least 2 shells w/ nada like I said above. I'm not as confident he'll do something spazzy though.

MinhANguyen said:

Why are we raising flop? If he's bluffing, we should just let him keep bluffing. Raising just folds out all his bluffs

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If only this were true. Sure, sometimes he'll fold, but quite often he'll play back and make a bigger mistake than firing the 2nd barrel.

In a 3-bet pot, it's not as big of an issue (since you don't have to raise to get all in). But against maniacs, you want to minimize the implied odds you offer them and capitalize on our tighter preflop hands. This usually means getting the $ in before the river if you can help it.

I havnt read above yet. But according to the last few posts where betsizes changes. It means he has it.

so according to this it's a fold. It's a common online poker tell.

akaRobbo said:

If he's just clicking buttons I don't get why were folding river.

Fair enough if it's a fish who is able to do simple things such as value bet, but if it's just a spewtard then river is a snap.

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no way he's just clicking buttons he changed his betsizing.

quite passive as well if you look at his vpip pfr so something else to take note.

3bet would be quite strong from UTG.

If he bets same size all streets it could easily mean he's got nothing just bluffing especially if its instant betting without thought.



..................


The Q is like the worst card for us, a common mistake would be overvalueing AQ and we call him down with a brick on the river and expect to win. But now Q has hit.
The only other hand our villain could be betting with is KK... Since we didn't re-raise or do anything to test him he may think he has us and wants us to call him down with a weaker holding than KK. esp if we see him bluffing a lot. It looks like a trap one way or another. But another question would be our table image? Do we fold a lot since he's been around and look weak tight.

It's also funny how raising bigger usually means weakness in higher stakes. But raising higher in micro is strength.

lol poker is so crazy

check/raising is always a mistake it feels at 10nl or 20nl opposed to 2nl and 5nl

c9h13no3 said:

If only this were true. Sure, sometimes he'll fold, but quite often he'll play back and make a bigger mistake than firing the 2nd barrel.

In a 3-bet pot, it's not as big of an issue (since you don't have to raise to get all in). But against maniacs, you want to minimize the implied odds you offer them and capitalize on our tighter preflop hands. This usually means getting the $ in before the river if you can help it.

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What implied odds? If he has air, he's pretty much drawing dead to runner runner. If he has a PP, he's drawing to 2 outs. And if he has an Ace with a worse kicker, he's drawing super thin to 3 outs. If we raise him on this type of board texture, he's probably not going to give us action with anything worse. He may be an aggressive fish, but as OP stated, he is not totally brain dead. He's most likely not stacking off or barreling off 200bb with air when our range is super strong. By calling a PF limp-reraise and check-calling two barrels OOP, we are signifying a lot of strength. At this point our hand is super face-up to AK or AQs at the minimum, unless Hero wanted to get tricky with a set. I would have ch/c ch/c CRAI OTR with a set, but that's irrelevant to the hand.

Like Aces said, the Q is one of the worst cards in the deck. If he didn't already have us the entire way with some random two pair/set that was messing around preflop or AA, he has us now. AQ makes a lot of sense the way the hand played out. Half pot half pot then river bomb. Don't really think he's brainless enough to move us off AK/AQs. Anyone decent player would know that we have AK/AQs OTR, or if they know we are tricky we have a monster and are just giving him rope to hang himself. He could also have AA here, betting half-pot OTF and OTT hoping to get action due to his maniac image, and because the board is so dry and locked up due to his having top set.

Dramatic changes in bet sizing usually signify a strong hand (small > small > huge or check > small > huge). I've leveled myself into calling so many polarizing bet sizes, especially pot-sized bets OTR where their line doesn't make any sense. But somehow they usually have it. Runner runner fives for trips with 57s in a 3-bet pot, 63o trips on K33xx in a 3-bet pot UTG vs SB, stuff like that.